Author Topic: A GLOBAL INTELLIGENCE BRIEFING FOR CEOs Part 1 (Long)  (Read 7570 times)

280plus

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A GLOBAL INTELLIGENCE BRIEFING FOR CEOs Part 1 (Long)
« on: June 04, 2008, 06:07:15 AM »
From a friend:I agree on the interesting read.


Sent to me by a former Navy Pilot I was stationed with in the 80's ...
 
Interesting reading
 
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From time to time I get pieces like this from a former navy guy who's working for the STRATFOR think tank.


        This is a very well-written piece and worth your time to
Read.  It doesn't matter if you're a Democrat or a Republican, it is
Important to you as a citizen of the United States . 
           
       
          WHAT IN THE WORLD IS GOING ON??
       
            A GLOBAL INTELLIGENCE BRIEFING FOR CEOs
                                By HERBERT MEYER
       
        This is a paper presented several weeks ago by Herb
Meyer at a Davos, Switzerland meeting which was attended by most of the
CEOs from all the major international corporations -- a very good
Summary of today's key trends and a perspective one seldom sees. Herbert
E. Meyer served during the Reagan Administration as Special Assistant to
The Director of Central Intelligence and Vice Chairman of the CIA's
National Intelligence Council. In these positions, he managed production
Of the U.S. National Intelligence Estimates and other top-secret
Projections for the President and his national security advisers.
       
        Meyer is widely credited with being the first senior
U.S. Government  official to forecast the Soviet Union 's collapse, for
Which he later was awarded  the U.S. National Intelligence Distinguished
Service Medal, the intelligence community's highest honor. Formerly an
Associate editor of FORTUNE, he is  also the author of several books.
       
        MAJOR TRANSFORMATIONS
       
        Currently, there are four major transformations that
Are shaping political, economic and world events. These transformations
Have profound implications for American business leaders and owners, our
Culture and on our way of life.
       
        1. The War in Iraq
        There are three major monotheistic religions in the
World: Christianity, Judaism and Islam. In the 16th century, Judaism and
Christianity reconciled with the modern world. The rabbis, priests and
Scholars found a way to settle up and pave the way forward. Religion
Remained at the center of life, church and state became separate. Rule
Of law, idea of economic liberty, individual rights, human rights-all
These are defining points of modern Western civilization. These concepts
Started with the Greeks but didn't take off until the 15th and 16th
Century when Judaism and Christianity found a way to reconcile with
        The modern world. When that happened, it unleashed the
Scientific revolution and the greatest outpouring of art, literature and
Music the world has ever known. Islam, which developed in the 7th
Century, counts millions of Moslems around the world who are normal
People. However, there is a radical streak within  Islam. When the
Radicals are in charge, Islam attacks Western civilization. Islam first
Attacked Western civilization in the 7th century, and later in the 16th
And 17th centuries. By 1683, the Moslems (Turks from the Ottoman Empire )
Were literally at the gates of Vienna . It was in Vienna that the
Climatic battle between Islam and Western civilization took place. The
West won and went  forward. Islam lost and went backward. Interestingly,
The date of that battle was
        September 11. Since them, Islam has not found a way to
Reconcile with the modern world.
       
        Today, terrorism is the third attack on Western
Civilization by radical Islam. To deal with terrorism, the U.S. Is doing
Two things.  First, units of our armed forces are in 30 countries around
The world hunting down terrorist groups and dealing with them. This gets
Very little publicity. Second we are taking military action in
Afghanistan and Iraq .  These actions are covered relentlessly by the
Media. People can argue about whether the war in Iraq is right or wrong.
However, the underlying strategy behind the war is to use our military
To remove the radicals from power and give the moderates a chance. Our
Hope is that, over time, the moderates will find a way to bring Islam
Forward into the 21st century. That's what our  involvement in Iraq and
Afghanistan is all about.
       
        The lesson of 9/11 is that we live in a world where a
Small number of people can kill a large number of people very quickly.
They can use airplanes, bombs, anthrax, chemical weapons or dirty bombs.
Even with a first-rate intelligence service (which the U.S. Does not
Have), you can't stop every attack. That means our tolerance for
Political horseplay has dropped to zero. No longer will we play games
With terrorists or weapons of mass destruction. Most of the instability
And horseplay is coming from the Middle East .  That's why we have
Thought that if we could knock out the radicals and give the moderates a
Chance to hold power, they might find a way to reconcile Islam with the
Modern world. So when looking at Afghanistan or Iraq , it's important to
Look for any signs that they are modernizing. For example, women being
brought into the work force and colleges in Afghanistan is good. The
Iraqis stumbling toward a constitution is good. People can argue about
what the U.S. is  doing and how we're doing it, but anything that
suggests Islam is finding its way forward is good.
       
       
        2. The Emergence of China
       
        In the last 20 years, China has moved 250 million
people from the farms and villages into the cities. Their plan is to
move another 300 million in the next 20 years. When you put that many
people into the cities, you have to find work for them. That's why China
is addicted to manufacturing; they have to put all the relocated people
to work. When we decide to manufacture something in the U.S. it's based
on market needs and the opportunity to make a profit. In China , they
make the decision because they want the jobs, which is a very different
calculation.
       
        While China is addicted to manufacturing, Americans are
addicted to low prices. As a result, a unique kind of economic
codependency has developed between the two countries. If we ever stop
buying from China , they will explode politically. If China stops selling
to us, our economy will take a huge hit because prices will jump. We are
subsidizing their economic development; they are subsidizing our
economic growth.
       
        Because of their huge growth in manufacturing, China is
hungry for raw materials, which drives prices up worldwide. China is
also thirsty for oil, which is one reason oil is now at $100 a barrel.
By 2020, China will produce more cars than the U.S. China is also buying
its way into the oil infrastructure around the world. They are doing it
in the open market and paying fair market prices, but millions of
barrels of oil that would have gone to the U.S.
        are now going to China . China 's quest to assure it has
the oil it needs to fuel its economy is a major factor in world politics
and economics.
       
        We have our Navy fleets protecting the sea lines,
specifically the ability to get the tankers through. It won't be long
before the Chinese have an aircraft carrier sitting in the Persian Gulf
as well. The question is, will their aircraft carrier be pointing in the
same direction as ours or against us??
       
     
Avoid cliches like the plague!

280plus

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Re: A GLOBAL INTELLIGENCE BRIEFING FOR CEOs Part 1 (Long)
« Reply #1 on: June 04, 2008, 06:11:29 AM »
Part 2:     
        3. Shifting Demographics of Western Civilization
       
        Most countries in the Western world have stopped
breeding. For a civilization obsessed with sex, this is remarkable.
Maintaining a steady population requires a birth rate of 2.1. In Western
Europe , the birth rate currently stands at 1.5, or 30 percent below
replacement. In 30 years there will be 70 to 80 million fewer Europeans
than there are today. The current birth rate in Germany is 1.3. Italy
and Spain are even lower at 1.2. At that rate, the working age
population declines by 30 percent in 20 years, which has a huge impact
on
        the economy. When you don't have young workers to
replace the older ones, you have to import them.
       
        European countries are currently importing Moslems.
Today, the Moslems comprise 10 percent of France and Germany , and the
percentage is rising  rapidly because they have higher birthrates.
However, the Moslem populations are not being integrated into the
cultures of their host countries, which is a political catastrophe. One
reason Germany and France don't support the Iraq war is they fear their
Moslem populations will explode on them. By 2020, more than half of all
births in the Netherlands will be non-European.
       
        The huge design flaw in the postmodern secular state is
that you need a traditional religious society birth rate to sustain it.
The Europeans simply don't wish to have children, so they are dying. In
Japan , the birthrate is 1.3.  As a result, Japan will lose up to 60
million people over the next 30 years.
       
        Because Japan has a very different society than Europe ,
they refuse to import workers. Instead, they are just shutting down.
Japan has already closed  2,000 schools, and is closing them down at the
rate of 300 per year. Japan is also aging very rapidly. By 2020, one out
of every five Japanese will be at least 70 years old. Nobody has any
idea about how to run an economy with those demographics.
       
        Europe and Japan , which comprise two of the world's
major economic
        engines, aren't merely in recession, they're shutting
down. This will have a huge
        impact on the world economy, and it is already
beginning to happen. Why
        are the birthrates so low? There is a direct
correlation between abandonment of
        traditional religious society and a drop in birth rate,
and Christianity
        in Europe is becoming irrelevant.
       
        The second reason is economic. If the birth rate drops
below replacement, the population ages. With fewer working people to
support more retired people, it puts a crushing tax burden on the
smaller group of working age people. As a result, young people delay
marriage and having a family. Once this trend starts, the downward
spiral only gets worse. These countries have abandoned all the
traditions they formerly held in regard to having families and raising
children.
       
        The U.S. birth rate is 2.0, just below replacement. We
have an increase in population because of immigration. When broken down
by ethnicity, the Anglo birth rate is 1.6 (same as France ) while the
Hispanic birth rate is 2.7. In the U.S. the baby boomers are starting to
retire in massive numbers. This will push the elder dependency ratio
from 19 to 38 over the next 10 to 15 years. This is not as bad as
Europe , but still represents the same kind of trend.
       
        Western civilization seems to have forgotten what every
primitive society understands - you need kids to have a healthy society.
Children are huge consumers. Then they grow up to become taxpayers.
That's how a society works, but the postmodern secular state seems to
have forgotten that. If U.S. birth rates of the past 20 to 30 years had
been the same as post-World War II, there would be no Social Security or
Medicare problems.  The world's most effective birth control device is
money. As society creates a middle class and women move into the
workforce, birth rates drop. Having large families is incompatible with
middle class living.
       
        The quickest way to drop the birth rate is by rapid
economic development. After World War II, the U.S. instituted a $600 tax
credit per child. The idea was to enable mom and dad to have four
children without being troubled by taxes. This led to a baby boom of 22
million kids, which was a huge consumer market. That turned into a huge
tax base. However, to match that incentive in today's dollars would cost
$12,000 per child.
       
        China and India do not have declining populations.
However, in both countries, there is a preference for boys over girls,
and we now have the technology to know which is which before they are
born. In China and India , families are aborting the girls. As a result,
in each of these countries there are 70 million boys growing up who will
never find wives. When left alone, nature produces 103 boys for every
100 girls. In some provinces, however, the ratio is 128 boys to every
100 girls.
       
        The birth rate in Russia is so low that by 2050 their
population will be smaller than that of Yemen . Russia has one-sixth of
the earth's land surface and much of its oil. You can't control that
much area with such a small population. Immediately to the south, you
have China with 70 million unmarried men who are a real potential
nightmare scenario for Russia
       
        4. Restructuring of American Business
       
        The fourth major transformation involves a fundamental
restructuring of American business. Today's business environment is very
complex and competitive. To succeed, you have to be the best, which
means having the highest quality and lowest cost. Whatever your price
point, you must have the best quality and lowest price. To be the best,
you have to concentrate on one thing. You can't be all things to all
people and be the best.
       
        A generation ago, IBM used to make every part of their
computer. Now Intel makes the chips, Microsoft makes the software, and
someone else makes the modems, hard drives, monitors, etc. IBM even out
sources their call center. Because IBM has all these companies supplying
goods and services cheaper and better than they could do it themselves,
they can make a better computer at a lower cost.  This is called a
fracturing of business. When one company can make a better product by
relying on others to perform functions the business used to do itself,
it creates a complex pyramid of companies that serve and support each
other.
       
        This fracturing of American business is now in its
second generation. The companies who supply IBM are now doing the same
thing - out sourcing many of their core services and production process.
As a result, they can make cheaper, better products. Over time, this
pyramid continues to get bigger and bigger. Just when you think it can't
fracture again, it does.
       
        Even very small businesses can have a large pyramid of
corporate entities that perform many of its important functions. One
aspect of this trend is that companies end up with fewer employees and
more independent contractors. This trend has also created two new words
in business, integrator and complementor. At the top of the pyramid, IBM
is the integrator. As you go down the pyramid, Microsoft, Intel and the
other companies that support IBM are the complementors. However, each of
the complementors is itself an integrator for the complementors
underneath it.
       
        This has several implications, the first of which is
that we are now getting false readings on the economy. People who used
to be employees are now independent contractors launching their own
businesses. There are many people working whose work is not listed as a
job. As a result, the economy is perking along better than the numbers
are telling us.
       
        Out sourcing also confused the numbers. Suppose a
company like General Motors decides to out source all its employee
cafeteria functions to  Marriott (which it did). It lays-off hundreds of
cafeteria workers, who then get hired right back by Marriott. The only
thing that has changed is that these people work for Marriott rather
than GM. Yet, the media headlines will scream that America has lost more
manufacturing jobs. All that really happened is that these workers are
now reclassified as service workers. So the old way of counting jobs
contributes to false economic readings. As yet, we haven't  figured out
how to make the numbers catch up with the changing realities of the
business world.
       
        Another implication of this massive restructuring is
that because companies are getting rid of units and people that used to
work for them, the entity is smaller. As the companies get smaller and
more efficient, revenues are going down but profits are going up. As a
result, the old notion that revenues are up and we're doing great isn't
always the case anymore. Companies are getting smaller but are becoming
more efficient and profitable in the process.
       
Avoid cliches like the plague!

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Re: A GLOBAL INTELLIGENCE BRIEFING FOR CEOs Part 1 (Long)
« Reply #2 on: June 04, 2008, 06:12:31 AM »
Part 3:

  IMPLICATIONS OF THE FOUR TRANSFORMATIONS
       
        1. The War in Iraq
       
        In some ways, the war is going very well. Afghanistan
and Iraq have the
        beginnings of a modern government, which is a huge step
forward. The
        Saudis are starting to talk about some good things,
while Egypt and Lebanon are
        beginning to move in a good direction. A series of
revolutions have taken place in
        countries like Ukraine and Georgia . There will be more
of these revolutions for an interesting reason. In  every revolution,
there comes a point where the dictator turns to the general  and says,
Fire into the crowd. If the general fires into the crowd, it stops the
revolution. If the general says No, the revolution continues.
Increasingly, the generals are saying No because their kids are in the
crowd.
       
        Thanks to TV and the Internet, the average 18-year old
outside the U.S. is very savvy about what is going on in the world,
especially in terms of popular culture. There is a huge global
consciousness, and young people around the world want to be a part of
it. It is increasingly apparent to them that the miserable government
where they live is the only thing standing in their way. More and more,
it is the well-educated kids, the children of the generals and the
elite, who are leading the revolutions.
       
        At the same time, not all is well with the war. The
level of violence in  Iraq is much worse and doesn't appear to be
improving. It's possible that we're asking too much of Islam all at one
time. We're trying to jolt them from the 7th century to the 21st century
all at once, which may be further than they can go. They might make it
and they might not. Nobody knows for sure. The point is, we don't know
how the war will turn out. Anyone who says they know is just guessing.
The real place to watch is Iran . If they actually obtain nuclear
        weapons it will be a terrible situation. There are two
ways to deal with it. The first is a military strike, which will be very
difficult. The Iranians have dispersed their nuclear development
facilities and put them underground. The U.S. has nuclear weapons that
can go under the earth and take out those facilities,  but we don't want
to do that.
       
        The other way is to separate the radical mullahs from
the government,  which is the most likely course of action. Seventy
percent of the Iranian population is under 30. They are Moslem but not
Arab. They are mostly pro-Western. Many experts think the U.S. should
have dealt with Iran before going to war  with Iraq . The problem isn't
so much the weapons, it's the people who control  them. If Iran has a
moderate government, the weapons become less of a concern. We don't know
if we will win the war in Iraq We could lose or win.  What we're looking
for is an indicator that Islam is moving into the 21st  century and
stabilizing.
       
        2. China
       
        It may be that pushing 500 million people from farms
and villages into
        cities is too much too soon. Although it gets almost no
publicity, China is
        experiencing hundreds of demonstrations around the
country, which is
        unprecedented. These are not students in Tiananmen
Square. These are average citizens who are angry with the government for
building chemical plants and polluting the water they drink and the air
they breathe.
       
        The Chinese are a smart and industrious people. They
may be able to pull
        it off and become a very successful economic and
military superpower. If so,
        we will have to learn to live with it. If they want to
share the responsibility of
        keeping the world's oil lanes open, that's a good
thing. They currently
        have eight new nuclear electric power generators under
way and 45 on the books
        to build.  Soon, they will leave the U.S. way behind in
their ability to
        generate nuclear power.
       
        What can go wrong with China ? For one, you can't move
550 million people
        into the cities without major problems. Two , China
really wants Taiwan , not so
        much for economic reasons, they just want it. The
Chinese know that their
        system of communism can't survive much longer in the
21st century. The last thing
        they want to do before they morph into some sort of
more capitalistic
        government is to take over Taiwan
       
        We may wake up one morning and find they have launched
an attack on
        Taiwan . If so, it will be a mess, both economically and
militarily. The U.S. has
        committed to the military defense of Taiwan . If China
attacks Taiwan , will
        we really go to war against them? If the Chinese
generals believe the answer
        is no, they may attack. If we don't defend Taiwan ,
every treaty the U.S. has will
        be worthless.  Hopefully, China won't do anything
stupid.
       
        3. Demographics
       
        Europe and Japan are dying because their populations
are aging and
        shrinking. These trends can be reversed if the young
people start breeding. However,  the birth rates in these areas are so
low it will take two generations to turn things around. No economic
model exists that permits 50 years to turn  things  around. Some
countries are beginning to offer incentives for people to  have bigger
families. For example, Italy is offering tax breaks for having
children. However, it's a lifestyle issue versus a tiny amount of money.
Europeans  aren't willing to give up their comfortable lifestyles in
order to
        have more children. In general, everyone in Europe just
wants it to last a while longer.
        Europeans have a real talent for living. They don't want
to work very hard. The average European worker gets 400 more hours of
vacation time per year than Americans. They don't want to work and they
don't want to make any of the changes needed to revive their economies.
       
        The summer after 9/11, France lost 15,000 people in a
heat wave. In
        August, the country basically shuts down when everyone
goes on vacation. That
        year, a severe heat wave struck and 15,000 elderly
people living in nursing homes
        and hospitals died. Their children didn't even leave
the beaches to come back
        and take care of the bodies. Institutions had to
scramble to find enough
        refrigeration units to hold the bodies until people
came to claim them.
        This loss of life was five times bigger than 9/11 in
America , yet it didn't trigger any
        change in French society.
       
        When birth rates are so low, it creates a tremendous tax
burden on the young. Under those circumstances, keeping mom and dad
alive is not an attractive option. That's why euthanasia is becoming so
popular in most European  countries. The only country that doesn't
permit (and even encourage) euthanasia is Germany , because of all the
baggage from World War II.
       
        The European economy is beginning to fracture. Countries
like Italy are starting to talk about pulling out of the European Union
because it is killing them. When things get bad
        economically in Europe , they tend to get very nasty
politically. The canary in the mine is anti-Semitism. When it goes up,
it means trouble is coming. Current levels of anti-Semitism are higher
than ever.
       
        Germany won't launch another war, but Europe will
likely get shabbier,
        more dangerous and less pleasant to live in. Japan has
a birth rate of 1.3 and
        has no intention of bringing in immigrants. By 2020,
one out of every five
        Japanese will be 70 years old. Property values in Japan
have dropped every year for the past 14 years. The country is simply
shutting down. In the U.S. we
        also have an aging population. Boomers are starting to
retire at a massive rate.
       
        These retirements will have several major impacts:
        Possible massive sell off of large four-bedroom houses
and a movement to
        condos. An enormous drain on the treasury. Boomers
vote, and they want
        their benefits, even if it means putting a crushing tax
burden on their kids to
        get them. Social Security will be a huge problem. As
this generation ages, it will
        start to drain the system. We are the only country in
the world where there are no
        age limits on medical procedures which is an enormous
drain on the health
        care system. This will also increase the tax burden on
the young, which
        will cause them to delay marriage and having families,
which will drive down
        the birth rate even further.
       
        Although scary, these demographics also present
enormous opportunities for
        products and services tailored to aging populations.
There will be tremendous
        demand for caring for older people, especially those
who don't need
        nursing homes but need some level of care. Some people
will have a business where they take care of three or four people in
their homes. The demand for that type of service and for products to
physically care for aging people will be huge.
       
        Make sure the demographics of your business are attuned
to where the
        action is. For example, you don't want to be a baby
food company in Europe or
        Japan . Demographics are much underrated as an indicator
of where the
        opportunities are. Businesses need customers. Go where
the customers are.
       
        4. Restructuring of American Business
       
        The restructuring of American business means we are
coming to the end  of
        the age of the employer and employee. With all this
fracturing of businesses
        into different and smaller units, employers can't
guarantee jobs anymore
        because they don't know what their companies will look
like next year. Everyone is
        on their way to becoming an independent contractor.
       
        The new workforce contract will be: Show up at the my
office five days a
        week and do what I want you to do, but you handle your
own insurance, benefits,
        health care and everything else. Husbands and wives are
becoming economic
        units. They take different jobs and work different
shifts depending on where they
        are in their careers and families. They make tradeoffs
to put together a
        compensation package to take care of the family.  This
used to happen only with highly
        educated professionals with high incomes. Now it is
happening at the level of the factory
        floor worker. Couples at all levels are designing their
compensation packages based on  their individual needs. The only way
this can work is if everything is portable and flexible, which requires
a huge shift in the American economy.
       
        The U.S. is in the process of building the world's
first 21st century
        model economy. The only other countries doing this are
U.K. and Australia . The
        model is fast, flexible, highly productive and unstable
in that it is always
        fracturing and re-fracturing. This will increase the
economic gap between
        the U.S. and everybody else, especially Europe and
Japan .
        At the same time, the military gap is increasing. Other
than China , we are
        the only country that is continuing to put money into
their military.
        Plus, we are the only military getting on-the-ground
military experience through
        our war in Iraq . We know which high-tech weapons are
working and which ones
        aren't. There is almost no one who can take us on
economically or militarily.
       
        There has never been a superpower in this position
before. On the one
        hand, this makes the U.S. a magnet for bright and
ambitious people. It also
        makes us a target. We are becoming one of the last
holdouts of the traditional
        Judeo-Christian culture. There is no better place in
the world to raise
        children and be in business. The U.S. is by far the
best place to have an idea, form a
        business and put it into the marketplace.  We take it
for granted, but it isn't as available in other countries of  the world.
Ultimately, it's an issue of culture. The only people who can hurt us
are ourselves, by losing our culture. If we give up our Judeo-Christian
culture, we become just like the Europeans.  The culture war is the
whole ball game. If we lose it, there isn't another America to pull us
out.
       
Avoid cliches like the plague!

Manedwolf

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Re: A GLOBAL INTELLIGENCE BRIEFING FOR CEOs Part 1 (Long)
« Reply #3 on: June 04, 2008, 06:14:14 AM »
Quote
We have our Navy fleets protecting the sea lines,
specifically the ability to get the tankers through. It won't be long
before the Chinese have an aircraft carrier sitting in the Persian Gulf
as well. The question is, will their aircraft carrier be pointing in the
same direction as ours or against us??
       
Are they still playing with the old Varyag, or did they reverse-engineer it to copy?

wmenorr67

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Re: A GLOBAL INTELLIGENCE BRIEFING FOR CEOs Part 1 (Long)
« Reply #4 on: June 04, 2008, 06:36:01 AM »
There is a lot of things in there to make people think.  Should give that briefing to a joint session of Congress.
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AJ Dual

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Re: A GLOBAL INTELLIGENCE BRIEFING FOR CEOs Part 1 (Long)
« Reply #5 on: June 04, 2008, 07:48:25 AM »
China's growing econimic might is predicated on cheap fuel/transport. And the oil prices for shipping have just overcome American tarriffs and taxes, and higher costs of manufacturing, both labor and regulatory at home.

Unless they build nuclear container ships, or oil falls back to well under $100 a barrel and stays there for a while, they're in for some hurt in regards with what to do with their surplus population. Suddenly there is not another new rubber dog-poo factory or microchip fab going up every other day to put those people to work.

Add into that mix, the male/female ratio that's out of whack over selective abortion, infanticide, or "medical decisions", which are unintended concequences of the one child policy. Then throw on some instability over Tibet, and maybe a desire on the part of the People's Comittie to drum up external crisis to focus the population's attention elsewhere and perhaps toss a few million of those extra males into the meatgrinder of war...

Oh, and the 2008 Olympics has been a lid on the pressure cooker for China to "be polite" because the world's coming to visit this summer. Once that is over, what then?
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xavier fremboe

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Re: A GLOBAL INTELLIGENCE BRIEFING FOR CEOs Part 1 (Long)
« Reply #6 on: June 04, 2008, 07:59:57 AM »
According to globalsecurity.org, it looks like they are pursuing their own design.  Stratfor has run a few articles about China's desire to counterbalance our naval force protection capability with their own.
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Standing Wolf

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Re: A GLOBAL INTELLIGENCE BRIEFING FOR CEOs Part 1 (Long)
« Reply #7 on: June 04, 2008, 08:31:58 AM »
Quote
In the last 20 years, China has moved 250 million people from the farms and villages into the cities. Their plan is to move another 300 million in the next 20 years. When you put that many people into the cities, you have to find work for them.

Not so. People leave agriculture for two reasons: it's harder work, and city work pays better. The problem for China isn't finding work, (both capitalism and banking were Chinese inventions, after all,) but trying to impose communist-style management upon the distribution of wealth. Both the raw quantity of new wealth and access to it by mere workers and peasants pose serious problems for communists; those problems will tend toward turning overwhelming with time.

The entire article is packed to the rafters with similar flights of illogic.
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Re: A GLOBAL INTELLIGENCE BRIEFING FOR CEOs Part 1 (Long)
« Reply #8 on: June 04, 2008, 09:10:09 AM »
Fire away at it, that's why I posted it.  smiley
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Re: A GLOBAL INTELLIGENCE BRIEFING FOR CEOs Part 1 (Long)
« Reply #9 on: June 04, 2008, 11:18:48 AM »
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An enormous drain on the treasury. Boomers vote, and they want their benefits, even if it means putting a crushing tax burden on their kids to get them.

One of the biggest issues facing the US domestically.
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