Armed Polite Society

Please login or register.

Login with username, password and session length
Advanced search  

News:

R.I.P. Scout26

Author Topic: Galloping Gallup poll  (Read 3302 times)

Umber

  • New Member
  • Posts: 38
Galloping Gallup poll
« on: September 08, 2008, 03:15:27 AM »

Maybe I haven't had enough coffee yet or maybe the numbers were announced incorrectly, but I just saw the results of the latest Gallup poll.  It has McCain at 54% and Obama at 44%.

I'd call that more than a "bump" and I love it.  grin

Umber

mtnbkr

  • Administrator
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 15,388
Re: Galloping Gallup poll
« Reply #1 on: September 08, 2008, 03:25:13 AM »

I saw 50/46 while at the gym this morning.

Chris

Umber

  • New Member
  • Posts: 38
Re: Galloping Gallup poll
« Reply #2 on: September 08, 2008, 06:15:28 AM »

Mtnbkr's numbers are correct.  Registered voters are going for McCain/Palin over Obama/Biden 50/46.  The numbers I saw on Fox and posted were for "likely" voters. 

Sorry about that, folks.  Should have checked the Gallup numbers on their site before posting. undecided

Still good news IMHO. laugh

Umber

HankB

  • friend
  • Senior Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 13,146
Re: Galloping Gallup poll
« Reply #3 on: September 08, 2008, 06:43:39 AM »

The Obama camp must be in a panic, like Fred Thompson said in his speech . . . usually at this time, Democrats are trying to maintain their lead, not playing "Catch up."

But of course, the only poll that counts is the one taken on election day.
Trump won in 2016. Democrats haven't been so offended since Republicans came along and freed their slaves.
Those who work for a living are being BURIED by those who vote for a living.
Government is a broker in pillage, and every election is a sort of advance auction in stolen goods. - H.L. Mencken
Patriotism is supporting your country all the time, and your government when it deserves it. - Mark Twain

MicroBalrog

  • friend
  • Senior Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 14,505
Destroy The Enemy in Hand-to-Hand Combat.

"...tradition and custom becomes intertwined and are a strong coercion which directs the society upon fixed lines, and strangles liberty. " ~ William Graham Sumner

Headless Thompson Gunner

  • friend
  • Senior Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 8,517
Re: Galloping Gallup poll
« Reply #5 on: September 08, 2008, 07:04:05 AM »

Mtnbkr's numbers are correct.  Registered voters are going for McCain/Palin over Obama/Biden 50/46.  The numbers I saw on Fox and posted were for "likely" voters. 

Sorry about that, folks.  Should have checked the Gallup numbers on their site before posting. undecided

Still good news IMHO. laugh

Umber
Nothing to be sorry about.  Gallup currently has two different polls out, one of likely voters (McCain +10%) and one of registered voters (McCain +4%).

Besides, likely voter polls tend to be more accurate than registered voter polls.

Intune

  • New Member
  • Posts: 78
    • The Shakes
Re: Galloping Gallup poll
« Reply #6 on: September 08, 2008, 07:49:29 AM »

I hope this is not considered a thread-jack.

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Monday-

Quote
McCain leads by four points among men while Obama leads by three among women.
On Tuesday 9/2, when Obamas lead peaked, he had a fourteen point advantage among women.
That is one heck of a drop.

ilbob

  • friend
  • Senior Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 1,544
    • Bob's blog
Re: Galloping Gallup poll
« Reply #7 on: September 08, 2008, 07:51:17 AM »

I don't know how accurate Rasmussen has been in the past put their web site sure seems to be having a difficult time with the huge McCain bounce of late.
bob

Disclaimers: I am not a lawyer, cop, soldier, gunsmith, politician, plumber, electrician, or a professional practitioner of many of the other things I comment on in this forum.

Headless Thompson Gunner

  • friend
  • Senior Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 8,517
Re: Galloping Gallup poll
« Reply #8 on: September 08, 2008, 08:06:25 AM »

My personal opinion is that Rasmussen is one of the better polling outfits out there.  They aren't necessarily more accurate than others, but they do tend to be less biased.  They're as likely to over-estimate Republican votes as they are to over-estimate Democrat votes.

Rasmussen's results also tend to downplay short term volatility.  Sudden spikes in the results don't appear in Rasmussen's data as strongly as they do in other pollsters.

AJ Dual

  • friends
  • Senior Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 16,107
  • Shoe Ballistics Inc.
Re: Galloping Gallup poll
« Reply #9 on: September 08, 2008, 08:16:10 AM »

Besides, likely voter polls tend to be more accurate than registered voter polls.

That's what worries me. There are more "registered voters" in Milwauke County than there are "voters"...  undecided



I promise not to duck.

French G.

  • friend
  • Senior Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 9,123
  • ohhh sparkles!
Re: Galloping Gallup poll
« Reply #10 on: September 09, 2008, 03:45:26 PM »

Now there is a new dynamic for pollsters to ponder. That would be guys and what they think with when they vote. Link http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2008/09/09/poll-women-and-men-dont-see-eye-to-eye-on-palin/
Quote
WASHINGTON (CNN)  When it comes to support for Republican Vice Presidential nominee Sarah Palin, a new national poll suggests men and women dont see eye-to-eye.

A CNN/Opinion Research Corporation survey out Tuesday morning indicates that 62 percent of men questioned have a favorable opinion of the Alaska governor, nine points higher than women. In the poll, conducted Friday through Sunday  entirely after then end of the Republican convention, 23 percent of men have an unfavorable view of John McCains running mate, seven points lower than women.

The gender gap is also apparent when it comes to whether Palin is qualified to serve as president if needed. Fifty-seven percent of male respondents in the poll said Palin was qualified, 14 points higher than women. A majority of females polled, 55 percent, said that Palin is not qualified to serve as president.

Half of all respondents think Palin is qualified to serve as president, twenty points lower than Sen. Joe Biden of Delaware, the Democratic vice presidential nominee.

Oh and where were all these people who think Biden is qualified to be president when he was running for president? Pretty much invalidates the poll right there.
AKA Navy Joe   

I'm so contrarian that I didn't respond to the thread.

Regolith

  • friend
  • Senior Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 6,115
Re: Galloping Gallup poll
« Reply #11 on: September 09, 2008, 04:03:55 PM »

Mtnbkr's numbers are correct.  Registered voters are going for McCain/Palin over Obama/Biden 50/46.  The numbers I saw on Fox and posted were for "likely" voters. 

Sorry about that, folks.  Should have checked the Gallup numbers on their site before posting. undecided

Still good news IMHO. laugh

Umber
Nothing to be sorry about.  Gallup currently has two different polls out, one of likely voters (McCain +10%) and one of registered voters (McCain +4%).

Besides, likely voter polls tend to be more accurate than registered voter polls.

True, as many people who will likely be voting aren't registered yet.  Like me.  Won't be registered for another week.
The price of freedom is eternal vigilance. - Thomas Jefferson

Necessity is the plea for every infringement of human freedom. It is the argument of tyrants; it is the creed of slaves. - William Pitt the Younger

Perfectly symmetrical violence never solved anything. - Professor Hubert J. Farnsworth

MechAg94

  • friend
  • Senior Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 27,890
Re: Galloping Gallup poll
« Reply #12 on: September 09, 2008, 04:55:11 PM »

Conservative candidates have always polled higher with men than with women. 
“It is much more important to kill bad bills than to pass good ones.”  ― Calvin Coolidge

Bigjake

  • friend
  • Senior Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 3,024
Re: Galloping Gallup poll
« Reply #13 on: September 09, 2008, 06:13:43 PM »

Have you guys seen any of the news sites?  They're all REACTING to Sarah Palin.  It's the hit dog that yips, as they say.  The more the MSN whines, the better we do.

RocketMan

  • Mad Rocket Scientist
  • friend
  • Senior Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 11,296
  • Semper Fidelis
Re: Galloping Gallup poll
« Reply #14 on: September 17, 2008, 03:41:01 PM »

Here it is, a little over a week later and the bump is entirely gone.  Entirely.  McCain and Obama are in a dead heat.
I predict that, with the MSM's continuing help, Obama will be up a solid seven points by this time two weeks from now.  And he will carry at least that margin through until election day.
Not good.
“Don’t be so open-minded that your brains fall out.” - G.K. Chesterton

Conservatives see George Orwell's "1984" as a cautionary tale.  Progressives view it as a "how to" manual.

My wife often says to me, "You are evil and must be destroyed." She may be right.

How many Democrats does it take to fix a problem?  No one knows because it's never happened.