Galloping Gallup poll

[Umber]

Maybe I haven't had enough coffee yet or maybe the numbers were announced incorrectly, but I just saw the results of the latest Gallup poll.  It has McCain at 54% and Obama at 44%.

I'd call that more than a "bump" and I love it. 

Umber

[mtnbkr]

I saw 50/46 while at the gym this morning.

Chris

[Umber]

Mtnbkr's numbers are correct.  Registered voters are going for McCain/Palin over Obama/Biden 50/46.  The numbers I saw on Fox and posted were for "likely" voters. 

Sorry about that, folks.  Should have checked the Gallup numbers on their site before posting.

Still good news IMHO.

Umber

[HankB]

The Obama camp must be in a panic, like Fred Thompson said in his speech . . . usually at this time, Democrats are trying to maintain their lead, not playing "Catch up."

But of course, the only poll that counts is the one taken on election day.

[MicroBalrog]

Here's the Rasmussen poll from today:

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

[Headless Thompson Gunner]

Mtnbkr's numbers are correct.  Registered voters are going for McCain/Palin over Obama/Biden 50/46.  The numbers I saw on Fox and posted were for "likely" voters. 

Sorry about that, folks.  Should have checked the Gallup numbers on their site before posting.

Still good news IMHO.

Umber

Nothing to be sorry about.  Gallup currently has two different polls out, one of likely voters (McCain +10%) and one of registered voters (McCain +4%).

Besides, likely voter polls tend to be more accurate than registered voter polls.

[Intune]

I hope this is not considered a thread-jack.

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Monday-

McCain leads by four points among men while Obama leads by three among women.
On Tuesday 9/2, when Obamas lead peaked, he had a fourteen point advantage among women.

That is one heck of a drop.

[ilbob]

I don't know how accurate Rasmussen has been in the past put their web site sure seems to be having a difficult time with the huge McCain bounce of late.

[Headless Thompson Gunner]

My personal opinion is that Rasmussen is one of the better polling outfits out there.  They aren't necessarily more accurate than others, but they do tend to be less biased.  They're as likely to over-estimate Republican votes as they are to over-estimate Democrat votes.

Rasmussen's results also tend to downplay short term volatility.  Sudden spikes in the results don't appear in Rasmussen's data as strongly as they do in other pollsters.

[AJ Dual]

Besides, likely voter polls tend to be more accurate than registered voter polls.

That's what worries me. There are more "registered voters" in Milwauke County than there are "voters"... 

[French G.]

Now there is a new dynamic for pollsters to ponder. That would be guys and what they think with when they vote. Link http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2008/09/09/poll-women-and-men-dont-see-eye-to-eye-on-palin/

WASHINGTON (CNN)  When it comes to support for Republican Vice Presidential nominee Sarah Palin, a new national poll suggests men and women dont see eye-to-eye.

A CNN/Opinion Research Corporation survey out Tuesday morning indicates that 62 percent of men questioned have a favorable opinion of the Alaska governor, nine points higher than women. In the poll, conducted Friday through Sunday  entirely after then end of the Republican convention, 23 percent of men have an unfavorable view of John McCains running mate, seven points lower than women.

The gender gap is also apparent when it comes to whether Palin is qualified to serve as president if needed. Fifty-seven percent of male respondents in the poll said Palin was qualified, 14 points higher than women. A majority of females polled, 55 percent, said that Palin is not qualified to serve as president.

Half of all respondents think Palin is qualified to serve as president, twenty points lower than Sen. Joe Biden of Delaware, the Democratic vice presidential nominee.

Oh and where were all these people who think Biden is qualified to be president when he was running for president? Pretty much invalidates the poll right there.

[Regolith]

Mtnbkr's numbers are correct.  Registered voters are going for McCain/Palin over Obama/Biden 50/46.  The numbers I saw on Fox and posted were for "likely" voters. 

Sorry about that, folks.  Should have checked the Gallup numbers on their site before posting.

Still good news IMHO.

Umber

Nothing to be sorry about.  Gallup currently has two different polls out, one of likely voters (McCain +10%) and one of registered voters (McCain +4%).

Besides, likely voter polls tend to be more accurate than registered voter polls.

True, as many people who will likely be voting aren't registered yet.  Like me.  Won't be registered for another week.

[MechAg94]

Conservative candidates have always polled higher with men than with women. 

[Bigjake]

Have you guys seen any of the news sites?  They're all REACTING to Sarah Palin.  It's the hit dog that yips, as they say.  The more the MSN whines, the better we do.

[RocketMan]

Here it is, a little over a week later and the bump is entirely gone.  Entirely.  McCain and Obama are in a dead heat.
I predict that, with the MSM's continuing help, Obama will be up a solid seven points by this time two weeks from now.  And he will carry at least that margin through until election day.
Not good.