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Author Topic: One more uprising in the Middle East  (Read 4615 times)

MicroBalrog

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One more uprising in the Middle East
« on: February 04, 2011, 12:13:08 AM »

http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-4023806,00.html

This time against Hamas..

Hopefully this works out.
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Hutch

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Re: One more uprising in the Middle East
« Reply #1 on: February 06, 2011, 09:27:05 AM »

How likely is this uprising to produce a form of government (and foreign policy) that the US or Israel can be accepting of?  Not sure how "free and fair" the last elections were there, but it produced a Hamas victory.  Extending that concern, how likely is ANY of the Current Unpleasantness in the ME to produce outcomes favorable to the West?
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De Selby

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Re: One more uprising in the Middle East
« Reply #2 on: February 06, 2011, 10:09:33 AM »

How likely is this uprising to produce a form of government (and foreign policy) that the US or Israel can be accepting of?  Not sure how "free and fair" the last elections were there, but it produced a Hamas victory.  Extending that concern, how likely is ANY of the Current Unpleasantness in the ME to produce outcomes favorable to the West?

That depends on what you view as favourable - in terms of producing societies that eschew Saudi religious radicalism, recent events are very likely to do that.

In terms of producing regimes that accept Israel's right to deport Palestinians, cooperate with any and all US programs in the region, and that support the US against Iran and Syria - zero chance of that.

Of course US support is now obviously being extended to Mubarak, a man who has tortured and murdered thousands of his own people, while plundering the nation's resources. 

Yet when he's replaced by the new regime, we'll all stand around going "Why do they hate us!? I know, it must be our freedom!", as if material and direct support for a ruthless dictator wouldn't be relevant to how they view us.

The current strategy of propping up dictators in Egypt, Jordan, and Saudi Arabia will only have the long term effect of guaranteeing new regimes that are more radically anti-American than Iran.  And propaganda aside, we'll have precious little to offer in the way of rebuttals to their claims about how the US aided and abetted torture and repression in their respective countries.
"Human existence being an hallucination containing in itself the secondary hallucinations of day and night (the latter an insanitary condition of the atmosphere due to accretions of black air) it ill becomes any man of sense to be concerned at the illusory approach of the supreme hallucination known as death."

Fitz

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Re: One more uprising in the Middle East
« Reply #3 on: February 07, 2011, 09:12:05 AM »

That depends on what you view as favourable - in terms of producing societies that eschew Saudi religious radicalism, recent events are very likely to do that.

In terms of producing regimes that accept Israel's right to deport Palestinians, cooperate with any and all US programs in the region, and that support the US against Iran and Syria - zero chance of that.

Of course US support is now obviously being extended to Mubarak, a man who has tortured and murdered thousands of his own people, while plundering the nation's resources. 

Yet when he's replaced by the new regime, we'll all stand around going "Why do they hate us!? I know, it must be our freedom!", as if material and direct support for a ruthless dictator wouldn't be relevant to how they view us.

The current strategy of propping up dictators in Egypt, Jordan, and Saudi Arabia will only have the long term effect of guaranteeing new regimes that are more radically anti-American than Iran.  And propaganda aside, we'll have precious little to offer in the way of rebuttals to their claims about how the US aided and abetted torture and repression in their respective countries.

Correct me if i'm wrong, but isn't our government asking mubarak to step down?

How exactly is that supporting him?
Fitz

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De Selby

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Re: One more uprising in the Middle East
« Reply #4 on: February 07, 2011, 09:30:09 AM »

Correct me if i'm wrong, but isn't our government asking mubarak to step down?

How exactly is that supporting him?

No, our Government isn't asking him to step down - it's supporting a "transition period" until September, during which time we've already welcomed the assistance of Mubarak's torturer-in-chief as vice president!

We've also made clear that military aid will not be cut off no matter what the Egyptian elites do. 

The closest thing we've called for is an "orderly transition" with Mubarak leading the way, which is ridiculous considering the state of Egypt as a result of his leadership. 
"Human existence being an hallucination containing in itself the secondary hallucinations of day and night (the latter an insanitary condition of the atmosphere due to accretions of black air) it ill becomes any man of sense to be concerned at the illusory approach of the supreme hallucination known as death."

Monkeyleg

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Re: One more uprising in the Middle East
« Reply #5 on: February 07, 2011, 09:41:56 AM »

Quote
Of course US support is now obviously being extended to Mubarak, a man who has tortured and murdered thousands of his own people, while plundering the nation's resources. 

From what I've read, the administration is trying to work with the Egyptian military, which would be the smart move, as the military is most trusted by the Egyptian people.

Iran has increased influence in the region, just as Russia and China now have increased influence worldwide, and for the same reason. It's now safer to be an adversary of the US than it is to be a friend.

S. Williamson

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Re: One more uprising in the Middle East
« Reply #6 on: February 07, 2011, 03:59:56 PM »

No, our Government isn't asking him to step down - it's supporting a "transition period" until September, during which time we've already welcomed the assistance of Mubarak's torturer-in-chief as vice president!

We've also made clear that military aid will not be cut off no matter what the Egyptian elites do. 

The closest thing we've called for is an "orderly transition" with Mubarak leading the way, which is ridiculous considering the state of Egypt as a result of his leadership. 
I thought you were Australian.  ???

Sincerely not intending to be asinine, here... maybe I'm thinking of someone else.  ???
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AJ Dual

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Re: One more uprising in the Middle East
« Reply #7 on: February 07, 2011, 04:03:44 PM »

From what I've read, the administration is trying to work with the Egyptian military, which would be the smart move, as the military is most trusted by the Egyptian people.

Iran has increased influence in the region, just as Russia and China now have increased influence worldwide, and for the same reason. It's now safer to be an adversary of the US than it is to be a friend.

That would sound like the "Turkey Doctrine", where the military is relied on to set things straight every decade or so...

It's a double-edged sword for sure, mainly depending on the attitudes of the superior officers in charge at the moment, but better than nothing I suppose.  =|

IIRC, the latest issues with the Turkish military and the regime in charge now aren't as exactly pro-western as they could be....
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MicroBalrog

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Re: One more uprising in the Middle East
« Reply #8 on: February 07, 2011, 05:10:42 PM »

How likely is this uprising to produce a form of government (and foreign policy) that the US or Israel can be accepting of?  Not sure how "free and fair" the last elections were there, but it produced a Hamas victory.  Extending that concern, how likely is ANY of the Current Unpleasantness in the ME to produce outcomes favorable to the West?

I do believe that if this works out for these individuals - and I really hope it does, because frankly the alternative is "Hamas kills a giant amount of people again" - we are probably going to see a faction of FATAH of some kind take over.

This would be a good thing.
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Monkeyleg

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Re: One more uprising in the Middle East
« Reply #9 on: February 07, 2011, 06:02:48 PM »

Quote
That would sound like the "Turkey Doctrine", where the military is relied on to set things straight every decade or so...

It's a double-edged sword for sure, mainly depending on the attitudes of the superior officers in charge at the moment, but better than nothing I suppose.

The theory is that the military is the closest thing the Egyptians have to an institution representative of the citizenry, since everyone serves. The military doesn't want the Muslim Brotherhood taking over, which is also a plus.

One columnist I read pointed out that the US has never picked a good side in a revolution, since nobody really knows any side will do if it wins power. No matter which side one picks, it turns out to be the wrong one.

De Selby

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Re: One more uprising in the Middle East
« Reply #10 on: February 08, 2011, 04:42:41 AM »

I thought you were Australian.  ???

Sincerely not intending to be asinine, here... maybe I'm thinking of someone else.  ???

No - I just live here.  I'm American.

Micro,

Fatah has been destroyed by the Palestine Papers.  It has no future.

Monkeyleg,

Mubarak is military - so is the person he appointed as a successor. 
"Human existence being an hallucination containing in itself the secondary hallucinations of day and night (the latter an insanitary condition of the atmosphere due to accretions of black air) it ill becomes any man of sense to be concerned at the illusory approach of the supreme hallucination known as death."

roo_ster

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Re: One more uprising in the Middle East
« Reply #11 on: February 08, 2011, 10:21:04 AM »

We've also made clear that military aid will not be cut off no matter what the Egyptian elites do. 

Treaty obligations are a bitch.

What was once wisdom and had the doves singing praises is now denounced as support for despotism. 
Regards,

roo_ster

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Monkeyleg

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Re: One more uprising in the Middle East
« Reply #12 on: February 08, 2011, 10:44:00 AM »

Quote
Mubarak is military - so is the person he appointed as a successor.

That Mubarek or his appointed successor are/were in the military is irrelevant. The military itself is seen as a potential successor to Mubarek until such time as another, more acceptable government can be established.

The military isn't coming out in support of Mubarek. Its members are letting the protestors have their way, and are even being supportive.