What if Romney chooses Ryan as a running mate?

[RocketMan]

If we don't win this election with this ticket then America is no longer America.  And that is a distinct possibility.

Looking at the aggregate polling, Obama wins by 3-6%.  The numbers have shown this for the last several months, back to before the GOP primary had shaken itself out.  There has been no significant change over that span.
There were some occasions early on in the primary when the generic GOP candidate bested Obama slightly in the polling, but when it was narrowed down to specific candidates, Obama usually prevailed.
I think we're pretty much hosed come November.

[RoadKingLarry]

I'm pretty well resigned to 4 more years of Obama, I don't think the GOP can muster enough votes to outstrip the morons, socialists and the entitlement class that will vote for Obama, not to mention being able to outvote the margin of fraud.

[slingshot]

We'll see how things begin to shake out after both conventions.  I don't believe the polling at this point.  I think it will certainly be an interesting campaign.  After the conventions, the Republican money will start kicking in.  At this point, Romney is still using pre-convention campaign money which I would assume is rather tight.  You see, he is not the official candidate yet.

[longeyes]

Don't trust the polls anymore than you trust the mainstream media.  That's not to say that Romney wins, but I don't think Obama is anything near a sure thing. 

And I doubt that any president, if Obama does win, will have entered the White House with such intensely  negative sentiment against him.  There is not going to be a mandate.  Liberals are well advised to remember that.

[Jamisjockey]

If we don't win this election with this ticket then America is no longer America.  And that is a distinct possibility.

Even if they win, its not a sign of victory, nor a reason to breathe easy. 

[seeker_two]

Romney finally made a smart move....Ryan brings him nothing but good things....TEA Party support.....fiscal conservatives' votes.....Wisconsin as a swing state.....even (and I in no way endorse this view) support from people who think this whole "first black POTUS" thing didn't work out....  


The only counter Obama would have for this is to dump Biden and pick Hillary as VP....

[Lee]

Seems to be a good pick...and will hopefully close the gap a bit.  I think I's prefer a role reversal on the ticket though.  Romney would make a great VP.

[TommyGunn]

Looking at the aggregate polling, Obama wins by 3-6%.  The numbers have shown this for the last several months, back to before the GOP primary had shaken itself out.  There has been no significant change over that span.
There were some occasions early on in the primary when the generic GOP candidate bested Obama slightly in the polling, but when it was narrowed down to specific candidates, Obama usually prevailed.
I think we're pretty much hosed come November.

Keep in mind that many of these polls are weighted toward demos/liberals.  They don't really reflect the true electorate.
I don't know who will win this November.  We live in interesting scary times.

[RocketMan]

After the conventions, the Republican money will start kicking in.  At this point, Romney is still using pre-convention campaign money which I would assume is rather tight.

Three things I read earlier this week:
1) Romney has outraised Obama over each of the last three months.  Romney was ~$25m ahead of Obama in July alone.
2) Team Obama is burning through cash a lot faster than Romney, to the point of running a deficit (where have we heard the term 'deficit' in relation to Obama before?).
3) Much of the Wall Street cash that went to Obama in 2008 is going to Romney this year.  Romney is getting roughly 60% of it this time around.

All of that is a net positive for Romney.

Keep in mind that many of these polls are weighted toward demos/liberals.

Yes, the polls can be weighted to the left. That's why I tend to place more stock in the aggregate polling, as it helps to wash out the outliers and slanted polling.  Even Fox, a group that one might think of as more balanced, is showing Romney well behind Obama.  Rasmussen is the only major polling organization showing Romney in the lead.  It's not looking good for Romney, IMO.

I'm looking forward to seeing how things look in a couple of weeks after the Ryan pick has time to sink in with the electorate.  Ryan is decent pick, IMO.

[RocketMan]

I'm pretty well resigned to 4 more years of Obama, I don't think the GOP can muster enough votes to outstrip the morons, socialists and the entitlement class that will vote for Obama, not to mention being able to outvote the margin of fraud.

The 2010 mid-terms were a fluke, in my opinion.  Due mostly to Tea Party activity it suddenly became fashionable to be 'conservative' among the mushy 20-30% of voters that have no real core values.  Unfortunately, that is all it was, fashion.  Many, if not most, of those folks really had no idea what it means to be conservative.
This go around it is no longer fashionable to be on the right side of things.  The Occupy movement, despite being generally populated by misfits and miscreants, has again popularized class envy and warfare.  With the MSM heavily on the side of the Occupy losers, mostly portraying the movement in a favorable light, it is fashionable this year to be part of the 99%, whatever that is.

[HankB]

The big question is, will the Romney/Ryan ticket campaign effectively?

Last time around, McCain & Company were in a constant tither . . . "OMG, Palin has gone off message again!!!" They really did nothing to answer Obama.

Now . . . so far, Romney hasn't been hitting back very effectively. Maybe he'll sharpen his focus once he's the "official" candidate, but I remember WAY too many lackluster GOP campaigns (Bush 41, Dole, McCain) to have high hopes. They need to hit Obama and hit him hard on everything from gas prices to the deficit to bowing low to the King of Saudi Arabia, and they need to do it in a hard-hitting, coordinated way, not just flailing away wildly.

AND at the same time - tell the folks what they'd do differently, and why.

If Romney/Ryan DON'T campaign hard and sharp, come November, all they'll be doing is patting one another on the back for campaigning like gentlemen as they clean out their desks after a 10 point loss.

[TommyGunn]

...Yes, the polls can be weighted to the left. That's why I tend to place more stock in the aggregate polling, as it helps to wash out the outliers and slanted polling.  Even Fox, a group that one might think of as more balanced, is showing Romney well behind Obama.  Rasmussen is the only major polling organization showing Romney in the lead.  It's not looking good for Romney, IMO.

I'm looking forward to seeing how things look in a couple of weeks after the Ryan pick has time to sink in with the electorate.  Ryan is decent pick, IMO.

The problem with your method is that adding up incorrectly weighted polls and dividing them by the # of incorrectly weighted polls only results in an incorrectly weighted result.
I'm not trying to be Polly-annish, I realize that it's a tough job unseating a incumbent president.  Obama might be re-elected.  Could happen.
It would be a grotesque mockery if it happened, considering that Obama's job ratings are pretty bad and most people seem to think America is heading in the wrong direction, but hey, cr@p happens.
Look at the Great Depression of the '30s.  It went on year after year and FDR got elected over and over.  So there is precedent.  I'm just hoping we're smarter and commnications are better .... but that might not be enough.
Right now I'm just trying to keep a generally positive attitude and not wind up hyperventilating every time some pollster comes out with another poll telling us why terrible things are in store for us down the road .....

[RocketMan]

I'd like to be as positive or optimistic as you, TG, but it just isn't happening.  The aggregate polling would be a problem if all polls were weighted to the left or poorly done.  Some are, but not all.  There are a few that are very iffy on their methodology, but most are done reasonably well, I believe. 
I suppose one could take some cheer from the fact that Romney is behind, but just inside or close to the margin of error.

[longeyes]

The next four years are not going to be just about majority rule but about minority rights.

[TommyGunn]

I'd like to be as positive or optimistic as you, TG, but it just isn't happening.  The aggregate polling would be a problem if all polls were weighted to the left or poorly done.  Some are, but not all.  There are a few that are very iffy on their methodology, but most are done reasonably well, I believe. 
I suppose one could take some cheer from the fact that Romney is behind, but just inside or close to the margin of error.

Most polls are weighted IMO.  The campaigns (on both sides) do conduct good polls without weighting (they have to know the truth) but make use of much of the other polls for political purposes.  A lot of the media use polls to drive news stories, not to "report" any real news.
Sorry you're so pessimistic.  I wasn't trying to twist your arm into being an optimist....I'm not necessarily optimistic, just....well, neutral. 

The next four years are not going to be just about majority rule but about minority rights.

Oh goody; does that mean when Obama takes office again my second amendment rights will be well respected by the fedgov.? ? ? ? 

[ramis]

http://heygirlitspaulryan.tumblr.com/

[RocketMan]

I checked my arm, TG.  It's still in pretty good shape.  

[TommyGunn]

I checked my arm, TG.  It's still in pretty good shape.  

Good.

[Scout26]

The only polls that really matter are the ones of likely voters. All the others are crap.  Those are basically used by the MSM to run "OMG!!!!  President/Challenger now Ahead/Behind by X%!!!! Film at 11!!!!

The most recent ones I've seen for the battleground states (WI, OH, FL, VA, NC, FL, IA, NV, CO, MI) show Romney taking enough to win.  And that was before he picked Ryan as VP.

[roo_ster]

Oh, I fervently pray it is so:

http://www.nationalreview.com/corner/313725/ten-initial-thoughts-romney-s-ryan-choice-john-osullivan

10. Whether or not Romney-Ryan wins in November, this choice signals the end of the Bush Family dominance of the GOP. Of course, some future Bush of real political talent may win through in the primaries, but he won’t start out as the GOP’s establishment choice. He won’t enjoy the Mandate of Heaven. Bushies suddenly seem yesterday’s men — more honorably and respectably than the Kennedys (of course) but no less decisively. The caravan has moved on.

[TommyGunn]

Oh, I fervently pray it is so:

http://www.nationalreview.com/corner/313725/ten-initial-thoughts-romney-s-ryan-choice-john-osullivan

.....the end of the Bush Family dominance of the GOP........

AMEN!

[AZRedhawk44]

I'm done voting for lesser men on tickets.

I won't vote Romney.  I won't vote Obama.  I won't vote either.

I will go in and vote for people that EARN my vote by defending individual liberty, on an office-by-office basis.  But I won't vote AGAINST anyone, nor be suckered into any more lesser of two evils types of games.

I wash my hands of it.  Ryan doesn't change it, because he's not on the top of the ticket.  He's as relevant as Biden is currently.

I'm not going as nutso as a "sovereign citizen" type of uber-Patriot... but I am just going to disassociate myself from it all.  I make damned near 6 figures right now, and I'm laying plans to get by on half that very, very soon.  I'm disgusted by all of it, and don't want to contribute to it anymore.

I'm not that great at my job... I have a fricking useless Asian Studies degree and I'm taking positions as senior systems engineers, database administrators, database developers.  And when I leave, people can't replace me even 5 years later, or hire multiple people to try and do it, and can't.

Someone who actually went to school for information systems architecture or computer science should be able to outperform me 10 times over.

But at least in my shallow little pool here in PHX, I'm supposedly irreplaceable, every where I go.

That really makes me despair for my industry around here. 

And it's an indicator of poor training/drive/ambition/intelligence/fortitude/whatever of my peers in this industry. 

And I don't think it's my industry alone.  Capability is hard to find.

I'll leave, they will hire two people each at 75% of my pay who won't do the job right, then a 3rd person at my pay who also won't do it right.

It's not that hard, it's just that SO MANY PEOPLE WANT SOMEONE ELSE TO FIX THEIR PROBLEMS FOR THEM, RATHER THAN THEMSELVES.

And a Romney ticket isn't going to fix that ailment in business any more than Obama.

If a manager can't fire a whiny nonperformer for fear of reprisal from lawyers and HR witches, then it doesn't matter where you work or what industry... eventually, we're all screwed as the leeches migrate from one mid-management position in one industry to another industry.

I might be convinced to vote for a Ryan ticket.

I'd certainly vote for a Paul ticket.

But not Romney.

[zahc]

Someone who actually went to school for information systems architecture or computer science should be able to outperform me 10 times over.

But at least in my shallow little pool here in PHX, I'm supposedly irreplaceable, every where I go. rolleyes

That really makes me despair for my industry around here.

And it's an indicator of poor training/drive/ambition/intelligence/fortitude/whatever of my peers in this industry.

And I don't think it's my industry alone.  Capability is hard to find.

I ponder this often. It's not just your industry.

[agricola]

Which idiot came up with the "Paul Ryan's career ambition was not to go to Washington" line?

[slingshot]

I think most of the news media use "polls" to actually sell their point of view and that is generally a liberal tilt to things.  How do we know that a poll was actually taken?

It is refreshing to know that Paul Ryan is a bow hunter, fisherman, and outdoorsman.  He is a real guy!  There has to be something beneficial to a guy that sleeps in his office in Washington and commutes home on most weekends to be with his family.  It's a job.  He has a pretty significant impact for a guy that sleeps in his office.  Unfortunately, the days of sleeping in his office may be coming to an end with Secret Service protection and so forth.

Mitt Romney's problem is he is just not a very exciting guy personality wise.  He doesn't have the flash that Obama has.  Obama's smile is golden to the masses, but since I am not generally a supporter I see it as plastic.

The Ryan choice makes the campaign about the future and not about the past.  Obama is great with selling class envy, and programs that have no chance in hell of ever passing through Congress unless he has a majority in both Houses.  What is he going to do in the next 4 years without a majority in both houses?  Absolutely NOTHING.  He probably won't even have a budget.  It will be Romney's job to sell a brighter future based on the results of the last 3.5 years and arguably sometimes illegal use of Presidential powers.  Obama thinks of himself as a Ruler, not a president.  He doesn't lead.  He expects others to lead for him.  Harry Reid and Nancy Pelosi come to mind.  The Democratic party is a master at negative advertising and campaigning.  I just hope that the Repubican Party gets smarter.