Author Topic: So what's everone paying for gasoline?  (Read 384676 times)

Ben

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Re: So what's everone paying for gasoline?
« Reply #350 on: August 28, 2015, 11:19:58 PM »
$2.68 at the Lihue Costco. That's nearly a dollar cheaper than the CA average.
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K Frame

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Re: So what's everone paying for gasoline?
« Reply #351 on: August 29, 2015, 12:45:53 AM »
$2.15 this afternoon at the local Hess. 
Get it while you can.  It will start back up soon with the $8/barrel increase in oil the last three days.

Maybe, maybe not. There's a strong overcost bias built into the price of gasoline right now.

With oil trading in the $40-45 a barrel range you'd normally expect to see the price about 50 cents a gallon lower on average.

If this recent jump in prices of both wholesale oil and gasoline is, as I suspect, rather short lived with the pending end of the summer driving season, I'm thinking any jump in prices will be minimal and short lived.
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RocketMan

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Re: So what's everone paying for gasoline?
« Reply #352 on: August 29, 2015, 07:58:36 AM »
If this recent jump in prices of both wholesale oil and gasoline is, as I suspect, rather short lived with the pending end of the summer driving season, I'm thinking any jump in prices will be minimal and short lived.

I hope you're right, Mike.  However, most of the recent rise in oil prices was, in my opinion, speculators reacting to the govt's fiddling with GDP growth numbers last week to make them look better than they truly are.  I suspect we have hit bottom for this go-around.  Oil will be going up for a while until the reality of .gov's fiddling with GDP numbers becomes apparent and market forces reassert themselves on prices.  How far prices will rise is anybody's guess.
At some point gas will have to follow if the rise in oil prices continues.  Perhaps with the downward pressure caused by the end of the summer driving season, we'll see gas prices stabilize rather than increase.
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K Frame

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Re: So what's everone paying for gasoline?
« Reply #353 on: August 29, 2015, 09:10:38 AM »
Yes, it was. And that desire to rush into the oil markets based on a positive report in the US can be quashed by yet more economic woe coming out of China, more reports on how glutty the oil market is, how big US stockpiles are, etc. Happened before, it will happen again.

Right now we're still in a situation that favors a downward trend, especially if Congress approves the Iranian nuke deal and they start moving oil into the global markets.
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K Frame

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Re: So what's everone paying for gasoline?
« Reply #354 on: August 29, 2015, 09:28:16 AM »
Forgot to mention that the station I filled up at yesterday morning for $2.399 had dropped to $2.359 yesterday afternoon.

And the Citgo near my house had raised the price from $2.499 to $2.519. But, on the weekends, they knock 6 cents a gallon off, so right now it should be $2.459.
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Mannlicher

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Re: So what's everone paying for gasoline?
« Reply #355 on: August 29, 2015, 03:00:17 PM »
$2.22 on the Florida Turnpike Wednesday.  $2.27 here in North Florida last night.

RocketMan

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Re: So what's everone paying for gasoline?
« Reply #356 on: August 30, 2015, 02:31:01 PM »
Yes, it was. And that desire to rush into the oil markets based on a positive report in the US can be quashed by yet more economic woe coming out of China, more reports on how glutty the oil market is, how big US stockpiles are, etc. Happened before, it will happen again.

Right now we're still in a situation that favors a downward trend, especially if Congress approves the Iranian nuke deal and they start moving oil into the global markets.

Your analysis may be closer than mine.  I was reading this afternoon that Chinese investors have little confidence in their government's ability to continue propping up their stock market.  There are a lot of international investors with the same sentiment.  It could get interesting.
If there really was intelligent life on other planets, we'd be sending them foreign aid.

Conservatives see George Orwell's "1984" as a cautionary tale.  Progressives view it as a "how to" manual.

My wife often says to me, "You are evil and must be destroyed." She may be right.

Liberals believe one should never let reason, logic and facts get in the way of a good emotional argument.

K Frame

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Re: So what's everone paying for gasoline?
« Reply #357 on: August 31, 2015, 07:42:56 AM »
Every analyst report I saw/read over the weekend considers what happened last week to be a momentary blip in the general downward trend for oil.

A few are even predicting low $30s high $20s as the eventual bottom.
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Re: So what's everone paying for gasoline?
« Reply #359 on: August 31, 2015, 01:01:56 PM »
OPEC blinked, wants to talk to other producers about achieving "fair pricing", and "The Energy Information Administration trimmed its U.S. production forecast by as much as 130,000 barrels a day for the first five months of the year as it switches to a new survey, the agency said on its website."
Oil immediately spiked $2.22 over where it had started the day, after being down $1.60 a barrel earlier.
The ride gets bumpy from here on out as OPEC loses their influence over pricing, and US oil production cycles up and down with the bouncing oil prices.
If there really was intelligent life on other planets, we'd be sending them foreign aid.

Conservatives see George Orwell's "1984" as a cautionary tale.  Progressives view it as a "how to" manual.

My wife often says to me, "You are evil and must be destroyed." She may be right.

Liberals believe one should never let reason, logic and facts get in the way of a good emotional argument.

K Frame

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Re: So what's everone paying for gasoline?
« Reply #360 on: August 31, 2015, 06:15:10 PM »
Yep. Didn't see that one coming.
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RocketMan

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Re: So what's everone paying for gasoline?
« Reply #361 on: August 31, 2015, 06:22:04 PM »
I figured OPEC would have to slow their pumping at some point.  They've been eating into their currency reserves at a substantial rate. And while they have enormous reserves, more than the other OPEC members, those reserves won't last forever.  There comes a time when their fight for market share becomes too expensive.
It's going to be interesting, following oil prices after this.
Wholesale gasoline and other refined product prices shot up today, too.  Well, the cheap gas was nice while it lasted.
If there really was intelligent life on other planets, we'd be sending them foreign aid.

Conservatives see George Orwell's "1984" as a cautionary tale.  Progressives view it as a "how to" manual.

My wife often says to me, "You are evil and must be destroyed." She may be right.

Liberals believe one should never let reason, logic and facts get in the way of a good emotional argument.

vaskidmark

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Re: So what's everone paying for gasoline?
« Reply #362 on: August 31, 2015, 06:40:09 PM »
$1.93/gallon in Spotsylvania, Va this afternoon.  Self serve and the you-don't-have-hold-the-lever-thing was removed.

Back in the day  :old: when we were still squeezing petroleum products out of the dinosaurs as they lumbered past, there were things known as "gas wars".  Anywhere from 2 to 4 stations at an intersection and all of a sudden one of them would start trying to force the others out of business by lowering prices, increasing service, and increasing the premium giveaways.  One of the better ones got down to charging only the federal tax (some stupid law prevented them from paying even a portion of it), three 3 guys in snappy uniforms with clip-on patent leather bow ties and pisscutter or bus driver hats charging out at the sound of the bell to wash your windshield front and back plus at least the driver's side window, check your oil and scald themselves pouring water from a galvanized can into your radiator, deflate your tires to the recommended cold pressure even though you had been driving all day, and hand you a box of laundry detergent with a part of a dinnerware set, a box of dishwashing detergent with a dish towel inside, toys for the kiddies, and if you went to the right station a new toothbrush in crinkly plastic and what we now call a travel size tube of either Ipana or Colgate toothpaste.  After all that was taken care of the head guy of the crew would ask if you wanted any gas, and if so ethyl or the other stuff.

Of course, this might involve waiting in a line that made the 70s embargo conga lines look like speed skating.

Those were the days when you could ride your bike down to the gas station and drive over the air hose repeatedly until the owner came out and threatened to call your parents.  And when you could either bring your leaky inner tube and get it patched and filled for anywhere from free to a nickle, or buy an inner tube (that might or might not burst on you when you were out over your head at the beach) for a dime.

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BobR

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Re: So what's everone paying for gasoline?
« Reply #363 on: August 31, 2015, 06:48:33 PM »
Quote
there were things known as "gas wars".  Anywhere from 2 to 4 stations at an intersection and all of a sudden one of them would start trying to force the others out of business by lowering prices, increasing service, and increasing the premium giveaways.

I worked at one of those stations around 1968 at a corner in Lawton OK. We didn't have a station across from us but in order to pull the business from closer to town we would lower prices. We got down to 12.9 cents per gallon for about 2 days before we had business and could start raising prices again.

I didn't wear a spiffy tie but I was expected to show up in clean clothes and a button up shirt ( I am not sure we had anything else back then). Pump the gas, wash the windshield and offer to check the oil and tires.

bob

K Frame

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Re: So what's everone paying for gasoline?
« Reply #364 on: September 01, 2015, 08:04:54 AM »
"I figured OPEC would have to slow their pumping at some point."

OPEC really isn't saying anything about slowing pumping right now. The want to enter into discussions with non-OPEC producers to "support a fair price for oil."

What that really means is "You MoFos get the fudge out of the oil business and let OPEC sell all the world's oil."

Personally I have a very hard time seeing that this will go anywhere quickly, and I think a lot of analysts are feeling the same way. While OPEC is a block and professes unity, each nation desperately wants to protect its piece of the market. OPEC has production limits in place, which are routinely violated by almost all of its members because they're trying to capture as much market share as they can.

Remember, back when the price of oil started falling, Saudi Arabia made it very clear that their intention was to pump like hell, let the price fall, and hopefully drive North American rigs, especially shale oil, out of production.

I think the ONLY reason that they're broaching this right now is because Iran is getting ready to jump back on line if the nook agreement is signed and sanctions are eased, and Iran is the only nation that can really give Saudi Arabia a run for its money production wise.
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RocketMan

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Re: So what's everone paying for gasoline?
« Reply #365 on: September 01, 2015, 09:32:40 AM »
Saudi Arabia is between a rock and a hard place with regard to oil.  At some point they are going to have to cut back on pumping to drive prices back up.  With Iran about to jump back into the market (if the nuke deal is signed, which is a definite maybe), they may have decided to forgo the market share war and move to cut production and prop up prices.  They need the money for all the reasons discussed previously.
Also, SA has hit the bond market recently to fund their budget deficit to lessen the draw down on currency reserves.

One of the articles I read mentioned SA has already internally decided to cut production and wants to get the rest of OPEC on board through these discussions.  Another said that SA just wants to start the discussion in that direction, with no indication a decision has been made.  It would be nice to know which was the more accurate.

I suspect most OPEC members would like to see a production cut to drive prices higher as many of them are in much more serious budget straits than SA.  I would bet SA could pretty easily herd all those cats in the same direction right now, with the exception of Iran.  Iran is a wild card, as they desperately want more market share to make up for what they have lost due to the embargo, but they also want prices to rise.  Somewhat mutually exclusive desires given the current market (and very dependent on the nuke deal).  Iran needs pricing north of $100/barrel for their own budget reasons, but that goal may not be attainable.

Can OPEC exert as much clout to maintain higher prices long term?  Probably not, what with increased production world wide by non-OPEC members, including the US.  OPEC's influence is certainly waning.
At this point I am wondering if this price spike event will mark the beginning of the long term oil price oscillation we discussed earlier in this thread.
If there really was intelligent life on other planets, we'd be sending them foreign aid.

Conservatives see George Orwell's "1984" as a cautionary tale.  Progressives view it as a "how to" manual.

My wife often says to me, "You are evil and must be destroyed." She may be right.

Liberals believe one should never let reason, logic and facts get in the way of a good emotional argument.

K Frame

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Re: So what's everone paying for gasoline?
« Reply #366 on: September 01, 2015, 09:56:19 AM »
Saudi Arabia figures that they're sitting on more than enough hard cash right now that they can push smaller producing nations and independents like US drillers out of business, or at least make it so costly for them to do business that they'll shutter wells, and they can swoop in and pick off the market share.

They know exactly what they're doing is an enormous game of brinksmanship. They're not dumb people.

So far its working to a degree. Venezuelan oil production is plummeting at a staggering rate due to socialist lack of maintenance (can't spend money maintaining the rigs, we gotta give the people lots of free *expletive deleted*it!), Russia is getting to the same position, a bunch of US wells have been shuttered, etc.

Right now it's complete and total speculation as to what the Saudis are going to do. When they want to be, they can be very cagey.

"Can OPEC exert as much clout to maintain higher prices long term?"

We're seeing entirely new language in the oil discussion -- fair price.

That's only started popping up in the last few months or so.

I have no doubt that I know the Saudi definition of "fair price" -- a price more than enough for us to make a profit and control market share, but not high enough to make it profitable for US/Canadian and non-OPEC drillers to make a profit.

As I said, they are playing a very fine game of brinksmanship. It's a game they know how to play, and one that they're pretty good at.
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K Frame

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Re: So what's everone paying for gasoline?
« Reply #367 on: September 01, 2015, 09:57:22 AM »
Oh, by the way...

Oil, Gas, and Related Products (what I call OARP, and which includes heating oil) are dropping HARD today.

China continues to be the multibillion pound economic gorilla in the room.
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RocketMan

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Re: So what's everone paying for gasoline?
« Reply #368 on: September 01, 2015, 10:47:38 AM »
One thing for sure, Mike, whatever happens will be interesting to watch.  That "fair price" language is new.  I hadn't made that connection yet, even though it was in the stories I read.
While they still have enormous currency reserves, SA has still hit them pretty hard waging this war for market share.  I don't recall the details of the last projection I read, but there was mention that SA would likely not maintain this gambit for more than a couple of years at the outside.  I think that is behind their recent large bond sales, the first since 2007.
Another concern for them is that they have no other real industry to fall back on when the oil runs out.  Diversification is something they are only now beginning to look at.  SA is going to be in real trouble long term if they don't figure something out.
If there really was intelligent life on other planets, we'd be sending them foreign aid.

Conservatives see George Orwell's "1984" as a cautionary tale.  Progressives view it as a "how to" manual.

My wife often says to me, "You are evil and must be destroyed." She may be right.

Liberals believe one should never let reason, logic and facts get in the way of a good emotional argument.

K Frame

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Re: So what's everone paying for gasoline?
« Reply #369 on: September 01, 2015, 11:53:30 AM »
Of course they've been hit hard. They factored that in. They knew that they'd have to draw down their currency reserves. They want to replace the money they made with $100 a barrel oil with money they make from $72 a barrel oil AND the extra market share that they capture.

Their bond sales are another indication that they're digging in for the long term. By financing debt, as opposed to paying it, they get money up front, which keeps them from making even bigger drawdowns on their hard currency, and spread the cost over a longer period of time. Yes, they pay more, but they're figuring they're going to win this, or at least come out in a very advantageous position.

The fact that they can play this game for a couple of years is a LOT longer than anyone else can play it. If you're going to war, you generally want to go from a position of strength, and that's what they've done.

As of right now OARP has given up most of yesterday's gains.

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K Frame

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Re: So what's everone paying for gasoline?
« Reply #370 on: September 01, 2015, 11:54:27 AM »
Oh, and the price per gallon at the stations I pass in Arlington, VA, has gone down another couple of cents to $2.33.

Which is still higher than it should be.
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Mannlicher

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Re: So what's everone paying for gasoline?
« Reply #371 on: September 01, 2015, 04:10:36 PM »
$2.14 in Starke Florida, yesterday

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Re: So what's everone paying for gasoline?
« Reply #372 on: September 01, 2015, 04:23:41 PM »
Was kicking myself for not having poured off the 5 gallons in the trunk can into one of the long-term cans in the garage when I spotted $1.989 and only had room in the tank for 3 gallons.

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Re: So what's everone paying for gasoline?
« Reply #373 on: September 01, 2015, 05:32:10 PM »
2.33 in Grand Marias MN
Iowa- 88% more livable that the rest of the US

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K Frame

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Re: So what's everone paying for gasoline?
« Reply #374 on: September 01, 2015, 06:35:05 PM »
OARP was absolutely slaughtered today.
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