Erdogan's "winning" could just as easily create an overreach with the purges already underway that sets up his fall IMO. Roughly 1600 troops and 3000 judges/prosecutors. And how many had anything to do with the coup? And that sort of thing could alienate the Turks that were initially on "his side".
Things are still in a state of flux IMO. Not saying Erdogan will fall, but IMO it's not over yet either.
Putting aside Gary Johnson/Libertarians polling higher than ever, and sit-it-out Bernie supporters and #NeverTrump etc. for the moment, I do think the more unrest, terrorism, and uncertainty in the world that happens, both abroad, and here at home between now and Nov. 1 probably plays better for Trump than it does Hillary.
So now we're pitting Trump's non-experience against Hillary's greater experience at doing all the wrong things.
Old Chinese proverbs/curses come to mind.