Author Topic: That's a big oops!  (Read 4271 times)

Hawkmoon

  • friend
  • Senior Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 27,197
That's a big oops!
« on: September 09, 2019, 06:01:00 PM »
https://www.adn.com/nation-world/2019/09/09/four-crew-members-missing-after-cargo-ship-overturns-of-georgia-coast/

Car carrier ship capsizes -- in the harbor. Makes you wonder how the thing was ever certified as safe to go to sea. I imagine the NTSB and the Coast Guard will be looking at how it was loaded and whether it was overloaded.
- - - - - - - - - - - - -
100% Politically Incorrect by Design

230RN

  • It's like swimming to shore in an ebb tide.
  • friend
  • Senior Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 18,826
  • Pushing back. Help me out, here...
Re: That's a big oops!
« Reply #1 on: September 09, 2019, 07:16:26 PM »
Engineering, schmengineering.

I'm a firm believer in trusting my instincts.

If it don't look safe, it ain't safe.

Becau$e $ooner or later, $omeone's going to pu$h the limit$.

Adverently or inadvertently.











Insurance is cheap.  Space on board isn't.

Terry, 230RN

AZRedhawk44

  • friends
  • Senior Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 13,948
Re: That's a big oops!
« Reply #2 on: September 09, 2019, 07:25:17 PM »
Pirate salvage mission.  When do we leave?
"But whether the Constitution really be one thing, or another, this much is certain - that it has either authorized such a government as we have had, or has been powerless to prevent it. In either case, it is unfit to exist."
--Lysander Spooner

I reject your authoritah!

Hawkmoon

  • friend
  • Senior Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 27,197
Re: That's a big oops!
« Reply #3 on: September 09, 2019, 09:06:03 PM »
Engineering, schmengineering.

I'm a firm believer in trusting my instincts.

If it don't look safe, it ain't safe.

...




Your fourth photo doesn't really belong in this discussion. That one is the Costa Concordia, which didn't capsize due to being topheavy, it opened a huge gash below the water line when it ran over a rock. Properly speaking, it sank -- but it was in shallow enough water that it hit bottom and then tilted over before it could be completely submerged.

There was in interesting video on the raising of the Costa Condcordia, for those who find such things interesting.
- - - - - - - - - - - - -
100% Politically Incorrect by Design

230RN

  • It's like swimming to shore in an ebb tide.
  • friend
  • Senior Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 18,826
  • Pushing back. Help me out, here...
Re: That's a big oops!
« Reply #4 on: September 09, 2019, 09:36:34 PM »
Your fourth photo doesn't really belong in this discussion. That one is the Costa Concordia, which didn't capsize due to being topheavy, it opened a huge gash below the water line when it ran over a rock. Properly speaking, it sank -- but it was in shallow enough water that it hit bottom and then tilted over before it could be completely submerged.

There was in interesting video on the raising of the Costa Condcordia, for those who find such things interesting.

I knew that.  Just a good photo in a quick look.  I actually followed the "dislodgement" of that ship and its towing away with the pontoons at the time.  I'm pretty familiar with it.

So quit being a shipwreck nazi.   :rofl:

Terry, :D
« Last Edit: September 09, 2019, 09:53:35 PM by 230RN »

Hawkmoon

  • friend
  • Senior Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 27,197
Re: That's a big oops!
« Reply #5 on: September 09, 2019, 09:46:13 PM »
Costa Concordia story: https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=raising+costa+concordia

Take your pick, from the 1:44 time lapse of raising the hulk, to any of several full-length documentaries.
- - - - - - - - - - - - -
100% Politically Incorrect by Design

Andiron

  • friend
  • Senior Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 3,930
Re: That's a big oops!
« Reply #6 on: September 09, 2019, 10:24:47 PM »
Looks like they got the last 4 crew out. 

Nice to have a happy ending to something in the news for once.
"Leftism destroys everything good." -  Ron

There is no fixing stupid. But, you can line it up in front of a wall and offer it a last smoke.

There is no such thing as a "transgender" person.  Only mental illness that should be discouraged.

just Warren

  • friend
  • Senior Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 5,234
  • My DJ name is Heavy Cream.
Re: That's a big oops!
« Reply #7 on: September 09, 2019, 10:45:21 PM »
And there's always someone with an idea for a super-ship trying to get funding for it.

Last one I heard of was what was to be able to fit the population of a small city on a cruise ship that had a deck big enough to land an airliner of some size.

It was big enough to have it's own marina.

And it was supposed to be built on top of many huge barges. It was also immensely tall

Now I'm no nautical engineer but based on the concept art I saw if it got even slightly cross-wise in a storm it would break apart or roll over.

Found it!

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Freedom_Ship

Since it has not been built I have to assume the idea did not find much favor.


 
Member in Good Standing of the Spontaneous Order of the Invisible Hand.

dogmush

  • friend
  • Senior Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 13,670
Re: That's a big oops!
« Reply #8 on: September 09, 2019, 11:29:49 PM »
Not to be [too much of a] jerk to Terry, but that is bollocks.

The math on ship stability is not that complicated, VERY well known and well validated.  It's not black magic.  This case, like pretty much every other case of calm weather capsizing in the last 200 years, is going to be either operator error in inputting info into the stability computer and not checking it, or operator laziness in not actually running the stability calculations.

I would point out that your scary loaded photos are ships running just fine, and it appears that your accident photos have all taken on water, and not capsized, as evidence that your instincts aren't the way to go here.


230RN

  • It's like swimming to shore in an ebb tide.
  • friend
  • Senior Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 18,826
  • Pushing back. Help me out, here...
Re: That's a big oops!
« Reply #9 on: September 10, 2019, 12:44:53 AM »
Ahhhh....  =D

Jamisjockey

  • Booze-fueled paragon of pointless cruelty and wanton sadism
  • friend
  • Senior Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 26,580
  • Your mom sends me care packages
Re: That's a big oops!
« Reply #10 on: September 10, 2019, 07:20:37 AM »
Not to be [too much of a] jerk to Terry, but that is bollocks.

The math on ship stability is not that complicated, VERY well known and well validated.  It's not black magic.  This case, like pretty much every other case of calm weather capsizing in the last 200 years, is going to be either operator error in inputting info into the stability computer and not checking it, or operator laziness in not actually running the stability calculations.

I would point out that your scary loaded photos are ships running just fine, and it appears that your accident photos have all taken on water, and not capsized, as evidence that your instincts aren't the way to go here.



GTFO with your facts man!  We don’t do facts here...just outrage and conjecture!!
JD

 The price of a lottery ticket seems to be the maximum most folks are willing to risk toward the dream of becoming a one-percenter. “Robert Hollis”

230RN

  • It's like swimming to shore in an ebb tide.
  • friend
  • Senior Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 18,826
  • Pushing back. Help me out, here...
Re: That's a big oops!
« Reply #11 on: September 10, 2019, 10:42:16 AM »
The trouble is, some things which are assumed to be facts aren't.

I realize there are methods to calculate load placement in aircraft, as well as fuel needed for a given trip, as well as a need to check lubrication of certain jack screws on the plane's rudders and elevators.

Which get screwed up, resulting in the ground gaining altitude uncontrollably.

So....

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wZWw-RY5p28

Partly relevant, take  your pick.  Note especially how many "improvements" are made only after a disaster or accident occurs.  Anyone who believes that all possible contingencies have been considered and no further unseen Murphy Incidents are possible is naive.

I was amused to find that in construction of one of the later "luxury plus" cruise ships, great care was taken regarding the amount of Carerra Marble that could be used in the ultra-luxurious top level apartments.

I also note that a lot of the ships' stability is achieved by dynamic means... either jet thrusters or hydrodynamic planes to counter any side thrusts on the ship including wind thrusts hitting the "sail area" as well as wave action.*

The trouble is, dynamic stabilization methods presume that there is power to operate them, and sometimes that the ship is moving in the first place.

Obviously, designing a ship to be immune to the very rare occurence of a 25 ft rogue wave (see video) would be uneconomical, but it's good to keep in mind that everything that tends to overbalance the ship increases the risk of capsizing.

And to assume that every jot and tittle of information is being correctly entered into the design calculations in the first place is also naive.  We have whole threads in the "metric versus imperial" category where gross errors were made and not "caught" by anybody.

Sorry, but my "instincts" start to take over when I see ten or fifteen floors of cabins above the main deck.  No amount of  assurances of delicate balancing of the loads (like how much Carrera Marble you can use on the stairs) by careful calculation will assuage my suspicions.  Especially with respect to the extra "sail area" of that extra height.

Or calculations of where to put those two extra cars on a cargo ship. (Also, see video.)

After all, the more delicate the balancing act, the more likely one is to approach tipover points.

And you know, the damned things do tip over... even while docked.

It's like "don't stand up in a canoe."

"Well then, exactly how high can I rise before capsizing?"

"Let's see.... you're six feet tall, but the weight of your beard is only 5 foot above the deck, so we'll enter 3 grams into the beard weight dialog box in the computer..."

And the beard actually weighed 3 ounces, not 3 grams...

A "fact" in error.

Terry, =D

* I don't know if they still use giant gyroscopes.

« Last Edit: September 10, 2019, 11:24:23 AM by 230RN »

dogmush

  • friend
  • Senior Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 13,670
Re: That's a big oops!
« Reply #12 on: September 10, 2019, 12:14:42 PM »
Sigh, I was going to Fisk that whole post 'ala a Monsterhunter blog, but that seems unnecessarily rude to a guy I like.

Suffice to say, that entire post is inaccurate and the video is History Channel "Aliens" level drama.

As for your instincts, you have no idea where the center of gravity is, where the center of buoyancy is, how much it displaces, it's righting moment, the metacentric height,  how much free surface it has, or even it's tonnage.  Why do you think your instincts are worth listening to?  Jenny McCarthy thinks her instincts on vaccines are spot on, too.

I'll say it again.  Ships don't capsize without humans doing something the manual specifically says not to. Even then it usually takes gross negligence, or negligence coupled with very, very rare weather events.  I study read the case studies of these things professionally.

I apologize if I seem to be taking this overly seriously, but it really bugs me to see people look at verifiable facts and be "Nah, it just feels wrong."

ETA:

One direct rebuttal, just because it's important:
Quote
I also note that a lot of the ships' stability is achieved by dynamic means... either jet thrusters or hydrodynamic planes to counter any side thrusts on the ship including wind thrusts hitting the "sail area" as well as wave action.*

This is untrue.  Active stability systems are allowed to be fitted for comfort and speed/economy, but the ship must meet the standards without power applied to them.  (There are actually standards for how much damage you have to assume will happen and the ship will remain stable), otherwise the vessel won't meet classification standards, can't come into most ports, and is nigh on uninsurable.  At least that's how the American Bureau of Shipping classifications work.

230RN

  • It's like swimming to shore in an ebb tide.
  • friend
  • Senior Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 18,826
  • Pushing back. Help me out, here...
Re: That's a big oops!
« Reply #13 on: September 10, 2019, 12:50:15 PM »
OK.

The best laid plans...

dogmush

  • friend
  • Senior Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 13,670
Re: That's a big oops!
« Reply #14 on: September 10, 2019, 12:59:30 PM »
For future trivia, they do still use gyros on active stability systems, but they've actually gotten smaller than they used to be.  With electomechanical and hydraulic systems running the underwater stablizers you don't need gyro's with as much angular momentum, so they got smaller.

Jamisjockey

  • Booze-fueled paragon of pointless cruelty and wanton sadism
  • friend
  • Senior Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 26,580
  • Your mom sends me care packages
Re: That's a big oops!
« Reply #15 on: September 10, 2019, 01:16:25 PM »
I love a good fisking!
JD

 The price of a lottery ticket seems to be the maximum most folks are willing to risk toward the dream of becoming a one-percenter. “Robert Hollis”

230RN

  • It's like swimming to shore in an ebb tide.
  • friend
  • Senior Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 18,826
  • Pushing back. Help me out, here...
Re: That's a big oops!
« Reply #16 on: September 10, 2019, 01:54:45 PM »
It's just that one side has a high reliance on the numbers, which is OK as far as it goes, and the other side has a high reliance on what looks right, which is also OK as far as it goes.

The latter side also realizes that "$ooner or later, $omeone's going to pu$h the limit$."

The "$omeone" doesn't have to be the engineer.

So, since apparently irreconcilable differences in outlook exist, there was no point in going further with this.  

OK?

Terry, 230RN

Jocassee

  • Buster Scruggs Respecter
  • friends
  • Senior Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 4,591
  • "First time?"
Re: That's a big oops!
« Reply #17 on: September 10, 2019, 02:41:14 PM »
Based on nothing but the available photos, it looks like they ran aground, shifted the load, it rolled more when the tide went out, then rolled the rest of the way when the tide came in.

However I haven't seen anyone say it actually ran aground, it just doesn't look to be in very deep water...
I shall not die alone, alone, but kin to all the powers,
As merry as the ancient sun and fighting like the flowers.

MillCreek

  • Skippy The Wonder Dog
  • friend
  • Senior Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 19,963
  • APS Risk Manager
Re: That's a big oops!
« Reply #18 on: September 10, 2019, 03:26:35 PM »
I read that there are over 4000 cars on board.  Are they tied down enough such that they will remain in place when rolled 90 degrees, or are they all in a big pile on the downward side now?
_____________
Regards,
MillCreek
Snohomish County, WA  USA


Quote from: Angel Eyes on August 09, 2018, 01:56:15 AM
You are one lousy risk manager.

grampster

  • friend
  • Senior Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 9,435
Re: That's a big oops!
« Reply #19 on: September 10, 2019, 03:55:15 PM »
Who farted? :old:
"Never wrestle with a pig.  You get dirty, and besides, the pig likes it."  G.B. Shaw

WLJ

  • friends
  • Senior Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 27,844
  • On Patrol In The Epsilon Eridani System
Re: That's a big oops!
« Reply #20 on: September 10, 2019, 05:17:57 PM »
Don't drink and drive

Boozed-up captain rams cargo ship into bridge in Busan
https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/boozed-up-captain-rams-cargo-ship-into-bridge-in-busan

"Sometimes I think the surest sign that intelligent life exists elsewhere in the universe is that none of it has tried to contact us".
- Calvin and Hobbes

230RN

  • It's like swimming to shore in an ebb tide.
  • friend
  • Senior Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 18,826
  • Pushing back. Help me out, here...
Re: That's a big oops!
« Reply #21 on: September 10, 2019, 08:56:58 PM »
It's not enough that they hit bridges all the time, now they're going after the on-ramps.   Sheesh !

Quote
There were no injuries in the accident, Yonhap reported, but the ship's captain allegedly tried to flee the scene.

Had a Master's License for "Any vessel, any waters, any on-ramp, any vodka."

Terry
« Last Edit: September 10, 2019, 09:12:46 PM by 230RN »

kgbsquirrel

  • APS Photoshop God
  • friend
  • Senior Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 5,466
  • Bill, slayer of threads.
Re: That's a big oops!
« Reply #22 on: September 10, 2019, 09:55:22 PM »
Don't drink and drive

Boozed-up captain rams cargo ship into bridge in Busan
https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/boozed-up-captain-rams-cargo-ship-into-bridge-in-busan



They're gonna need some big jersey barriers.

dogmush

  • friend
  • Senior Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 13,670
Re: That's a big oops!
« Reply #23 on: September 10, 2019, 11:34:22 PM »
Based on nothing but the available photos, it looks like they ran aground, shifted the load, it rolled more when the tide went out, then rolled the rest of the way when the tide came in.

However I haven't seen anyone say it actually ran aground, it just doesn't look to be in very deep water...

There were early reports of a fire on board.  We're wondering if they got caught up fighting the fire and failed to dewater and/or counter ballast.  MTS records show they capsized right after another RO/RO carrier passed them, so upset CG due to fire fighting +wake+ a *expletive deleted*it ton of free surface on a car deck = capsize.

We'll see what the USCG has to say.

BobR

  • Just a pup compared to a few old dogs here!
  • friend
  • Senior Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 7,245
Re: That's a big oops!
« Reply #24 on: September 10, 2019, 11:43:36 PM »
There were early reports of a fire on board.  We're wondering if they got caught up fighting the fire and failed to dewater and/or counter ballast.  MTS records show they capsized right after another RO/RO carrier passed them, so upset CG due to fire fighting +wake+ a *expletive deleted*it ton of free surface on a car deck = capsize.

We'll see what the USCG has to say.

Dewatering is a very important part of fighting a shipboard fire. We had a carrier that had a fire on the O3 level (right below the flight deck) and the amount of water put about a 7-8 degree list on the boat at the pier. There was some concern it may have tried to lay over if it went much further.


bob