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Author Topic: COVID-19/corona virus mega thread/prepping thread  (Read 220350 times)

sumpnz

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Re: COVID-19/corona virus mega thread/prepping thread
« Reply #5975 on: September 13, 2021, 11:34:25 AM »

This issue is more political than medical these days.

Bingo.

cordex

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Re: COVID-19/corona virus mega thread/prepping thread
« Reply #5976 on: September 13, 2021, 12:47:40 PM »


Yeah, pretty much.

The universal availability of the vaccine to anyone who wants it was a huge win, and the fact that it has seen widespread adoption is probably a very good thing (assuming it doesn't have downstream impacts and provides some level of protection for a while).  Combined with a variety of what appear to be effective treatments, and COVID has become much less of an urgent threat.  Nationally speaking we're not at some new peak in infections or hospitalizations.  It was much worse last fall and winter.  That's true even though now we have far fewer government enforced mandates, drastically reduced obedience of what mandates are out there, and a new, super-contagious variant for each day of the week.

The big lever left to pull (and the one MillCreek keeps yanking) is the one that says: "OMG, PEOPLE CAN'T GET TREATMENT BECAUSE OF ALL THE STUPID UNVAXXED WHO ARE FILLING OUR HOSPITALS TO THE BRIM!"  That's the argument used to justify heavy-handed tactics to force compliance.  According to that line of thinking, an unvaccinated person is not merely risking their own health and life, they are murdering everyone else by reducing the availability of care.

What is generally left out of that discussion is that as the capacity shortage itself appears to be driven by politics.  As is regularly brought up, hospitals are typically designed to operate at near capacity.  When it comes to infrastructure, they can expand that capacity to some degree by opening areas that are typically kept closed, repurposing rooms, and even using tents/hospital ships in extreme cases.  But it really isn't an infrastructure issue, is it?  Even at the height of the pandemic in the US very few of the overflow beds were actually used. 

So the limitation is really a staffing issue.  More than that, it appears to be a relatively new staffing issue.  I can't say with certainty whether that issue is caused by or just exacerbated by the COVID unemployment benefits and by forcing the firing of unvaccinated medical personnel, but I'm fairly confident that if politicians were really concerned about patient outcomes and the availability of care instead pushing an agenda then they'd be making considerably different choices.  It comes across to me as the very people who are causing the problem are trying to blame someone else for it.

Doesn't help much that hospital systems are being caught discussing specifically how to be more alarmist in their reporting in order to drive vaccinations.

kgbsquirrel

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Ben

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Re: COVID-19/corona virus mega thread/prepping thread
« Reply #5978 on: September 13, 2021, 01:03:36 PM »


The big lever left to pull (and the one MillCreek keeps yanking) is the one that says: "OMG, PEOPLE CAN'T GET TREATMENT BECAUSE OF ALL THE STUPID UNVAXXED WHO ARE FILLING OUR HOSPITALS TO THE BRIM!"  That's the argument used to justify heavy-handed tactics to force compliance.  According to that line of thinking, an unvaccinated person is not merely risking their own health and life, they are murdering everyone else by reducing the availability of care.

And on the political, lets not forget that when a certain Donald Trump was in office, the current Vice President stated on national TV that she would not get vaccinated "if Trump recommended it".

Absolutely there is a huge political aspect to this, from both sides. If Trump were in office now, don't tell me that the left wouldn't be the "anti-vaxxers" and much of the right wouldn't be condemning them for it.

The politicians are making everyone question everything, from "two weeks to get things under control", to, "Get vaccinated so you can live your life", to, "Get vaccinated so that you don't infect the vaccinated."

All while, as I will continue to harp on, ignoring natural immunity as part of the herd immunity numbers. The Seattle Times harps on the 60% vs 40% vaccinated numbers between WA and ID. Obviously there were more per capita cases of covid in ID, which means there is likely a higher population of naturally immune. The immunity percentages between both states could very well be similar, or ID could even have a higher immunity rate vs vaccination rate. Hard to know since no one is crunching those numbers.
"I'm a foolish old man that has been drawn into a wild goose chase by a harpy in trousers and a nincompoop."

dogmush

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Re: COVID-19/corona virus mega thread/prepping thread
« Reply #5979 on: September 13, 2021, 01:14:33 PM »



What is generally left out of that discussion is that as the capacity shortage itself appears to be driven by politics.  As is regularly brought up, hospitals are typically designed to operate at near capacity.  When it comes to infrastructure, they can expand that capacity to some degree by opening areas that are typically kept closed, repurposing rooms, and even using tents/hospital ships in extreme cases.  But it really isn't an infrastructure issue, is it?  Even at the height of the pandemic in the US very few of the overflow beds were actually used. 

Except that that conveniently handwaves the parts of the country that are seeing a shortage in capacity.  The US is a big place, and there are definitely regions seeing lack of bed space, regardless of staffing.  The southeast is one, We saw the story of the Heart patient that couldn't find an ICU bed.  Idaho is clearly one.  Parts of the southwest.  Hospitals can reporpose areas to some extant, as we have seen, but there is a limit to how much can be repurposed.  For example, Tampa's large hospital was, a week and a half ago, at 25% of it's total capacity in COVID admits.  It's a 1000 bed hospital, and 254 of them were COVID admits.  That weekend the infectious disease building hit it's O2 limit, and the O2 system couldn't push enough volume to supply all the assisted breathing devises.  That's not a staffing issue.


So the limitation is really a staffing issue.  More than that, it appears to be a relatively new staffing issue.  I can't say with certainty whether that issue is caused by or just exacerbated by the COVID unemployment benefits and by forcing the firing of unvaccinated medical personnel, but I'm fairly confident that if politicians were really concerned about patient outcomes and the availability of care instead pushing an agenda then they'd be making considerably different choices.  It comes across to me as the very people who are causing the problem are trying to blame someone else for it.


Nice false dichotomy.  You can't say it's either.  You have no idea if the staff being fired are Med-Surg nurses, ICU nurses, or transport staff.  The fact that you think unemployment has any bearing on ICU staffing is retarded.  ICU nurses make way more than unemployment pays normally, and the money being thrown around right now for travel nurses is obscene.  There is no nurse qualified in patient care sitting at home thinking they'll just rack in that sweet unemployment because it's so much money.


People's responses to the pandemic sure seem to be political though.  Pick a tribe and Ride or Die.  That's the new American way.

DittoHead

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Re: COVID-19/corona virus mega thread/prepping thread
« Reply #5980 on: September 13, 2021, 01:29:01 PM »

don't tell me that the left wouldn't be the "anti-vaxxers" and much of the right wouldn't be condemning them for it.
You don't even have to make it a 'what if' question, just look back a few years.
vaccination is not about protecting the vaccinated so much as it is about protecting others from disease-carriers. Vaccines are properly understood not on the basis of narrow self-interest but as a defense of the human species.

Fundamentally, the protection against life-threatening plague is one of the original reasons government exists. We’ve had mandatory vaccines for schoolchildren in America since before the Emancipation Proclamation. The Supreme Court has upheld that practice as constitutional for over a century, and only the political fringes believe there ought to be a debate about such matters. This is one of the few areas where government necessarily exercises power.
...
If you choose not to vaccinate, private and public institutions should be able to discriminate on that basis. Disneyland should be able to require proof of vaccination as a condition of entry, and so should public schools. You shouldn’t be compelled to vaccinate your child, but neither should the rest of us be compelled to pretend like you did.
From The Federalist!  :O
I see no reason to give more power to the state when it can reside with the individual.

“As states are a collection of individual men, which ought we to respect most: the rights of the people composing them, or the artificial beings resulting from the composition?” asked Alexander Hamilton. “Nothing could be more preposterous or absurd than to sacrifice the former to the latter.”

MechAg94

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Re: COVID-19/corona virus mega thread/prepping thread
« Reply #5981 on: September 13, 2021, 01:46:09 PM »

Haven't we heard some evidence that vaccinated people have been found to carry the disease? 

I have heard the vaccination rates are climbing.  You would think that would make an impact. 
“It is much more important to kill bad bills than to pass good ones.”  ― Calvin Coolidge

Ben

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Re: COVID-19/corona virus mega thread/prepping thread
« Reply #5982 on: September 13, 2021, 01:56:47 PM »

Haven't we heard some evidence that vaccinated people have been found to carry the disease? 

Yes. The peer reviewed paper may have even been linked in this thread. I can't remember everything from it, but (I'm shooting my mouth off here without the reference and using probably inaccurate language). There are two parts to immunity - I think the second, "not a carrier" parts was something called mucoid immunity or mucoid antibodies or something. The T and B cells are what protect you, the mucoid antibodies are what protect you from being a carrier.

IIRC, the paper talked about the vaccine not providing the "not a carrier" immunity the way that natural immunity does.

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cordex

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Re: COVID-19/corona virus mega thread/prepping thread
« Reply #5983 on: September 13, 2021, 02:02:04 PM »

Except that that conveniently handwaves the parts of the country that are seeing a shortage in capacity.  The US is a big place, and there are definitely regions seeing lack of bed space, regardless of staffing. 
Granted.  Local and regional infrastructure can certainly be overwhelmed in the short term.  From what I've seen, beds are rarely the problem.

The southeast is one, We saw the story of the Heart patient that couldn't find an ICU bed. 
An ICU bed or a staffed ICU bed?

Nice false dichotomy.  You can't say it's either. 
???  What false dichotomy?  I wasn't saying that the only thing causing a staffing shortage was EITHER unemployment OR firing of people who aren't vaccinated.  I was saying that while I can't say the shortages are strictly due to staff lost because of political decisions (including unemployment and firing people), those political choices are contributing to the staffing shortage. 

You have no idea if the staff being fired are Med-Surg nurses, ICU nurses, or transport staff. 
Are you claiming that widespread firing of unvaccinated medical personnel will not impact critical staffing or patient outcomes?

The fact that you think unemployment has any bearing on ICU staffing is retarded.  ICU nurses make way more than unemployment pays normally, and the money being thrown around right now for travel nurses is obscene.  There is no nurse qualified in patient care sitting at home thinking they'll just rack in that sweet unemployment because it's so much money.
;/  Yeah, dogmush, I'm sure I didn't consider that.  Except nursing isn't the only high-paying career that is shorthanded.  Plenty of people who could be making a lot more money by working are enjoying not working more than the extra money.  But if you think that isn't happening in the nursing field too then ... okay.  Sure.

People's responses to the pandemic sure seem to be political though.  Pick a tribe and Ride or Die.  That's the new American way.
Clearly.

sumpnz

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Re: COVID-19/corona virus mega thread/prepping thread
« Reply #5984 on: September 13, 2021, 02:13:04 PM »

On schools mandating vaccines, my stance since looooong before covid was that parents should be free to not vaccinate for MMR, DPT, etc for whatever valid or imaginary reason they choose.  However they shouldn’t try to force the taxpayers to take on their Petri dish in a public school.  They should send them to a private school that doesn’t mandate vaccines or homeschool.  Public schools are germ factories as it is.  Deadly diseases for which there is an effective vaccine don’t need to be included in said germ factory.  Before the vaccine requirements for MMR and DPT especially there were kids that died needlessly every year from outbreaks, 400-500 yearly just for measles when our population was about half what is now.  Now such deaths are basically unheard of.

Now, that brings up whether covid is a deadly disease.  Or at least if it is significantly more deadly than other diseases, and if so, whether the vaccine is effective.  There is a very good argument that covid is NOT especially deadly when compared to the flu in children or even young adults.  Given that flu vaccines are not terribly effective, and have never been required for public schools, it’s hard to argue that covid vaccines, no matter how effective, should be required. 

Whether they are a good idea, or something a kid should have, should be left entirely up to the parents.  I wouldn’t mind a school recommending it, or encouraging it, but IMHO, it doesn’t rise to the level of something a school should require.

dogmush

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Re: COVID-19/corona virus mega thread/prepping thread
« Reply #5985 on: September 13, 2021, 02:19:41 PM »

Granted.  Local and regional infrastructure can certainly be overwhelmed in the short term.  From what I've seen, beds are rarely the problem.  I can only speak for sure around here, but around here they are.  They dropped many of the minimum staffing regs or slammed NON-ICU staff into ICU's with oversite to staff every bed they had.  So Tampa's shortages seem to be beds and equipment since early(ish) summer.
An ICU bed or a staffed ICU bed?  That dude specifically, I don't know.  The article is in this thread.
 ???  What false dichotomy?  I wasn't saying that the only thing causing a staffing shortage was EITHER unemployment OR firing of people who aren't vaccinated.  I was saying that while I can't say the shortages are strictly due to staff lost because of political decisions (including unemployment and firing people), those political choices are contributing to the staffing shortage. I read that as you couldn't tell whether it was firings or unemployment causing the shortage, implying it had to be one or the other.  I see on a second read that's not what you typed.  I apologize for the misread.
Are you claiming that widespread firing of unvaccinated medical personnel will not impact critical staffing or patient outcomes?  I'm not, as yet, convinced there will be "widespread" firings.  Again the Local hospitals are where I have firsthand knowledge from people there and the chance to listen in on meetings.  Around here hospital staff is low to mid 80%'s vaccinated, and people treating COVID is upper 90%'s vaccinated.  Not all of those are going to quit/be fired over this. So while 5-10% staffing drop will be very bad, That's not "widespread" (IMO) and it tends to not be in critical areas.  Other areas may differ.
 ;/  Yeah, dogmush, I'm sure I didn't consider that.  Except nursing isn't the only high-paying career that is shorthanded.  Plenty of people who could be making a lot more money by working are enjoying not working more than the extra money.  But if you think that isn't happening in the nursing field too then ... okay.  Sure.  I don't think the CARE Act payment levels are effecting a nursing shortage that's been in the news for 15 years.  There hasn't been a mass exodus of nurses in the last 18 months.  You are the one making the claim, so I will leave it to you to find articles or interviews, or even tik toks of ICU nurses staying home for those sweet unemployment benis.
 Clearly.  If you are pointing back at me on this one you have the wrong guy.  I've changed or moderated my position on COVID several times just on this board. When it comes to the modern American tribes [parties] I'm trying to start the Mercutio Party (A pox on BOTH your houses!).

zxcvbob

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Re: COVID-19/corona virus mega thread/prepping thread
« Reply #5986 on: September 13, 2021, 03:05:19 PM »

When it comes to the modern American tribes [parties] I'm trying to start the Mercutio Party (A pox on BOTH your houses!).

Your ideas are intriguing to me, and I wish to subscribe to your newsletter.
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MillCreek

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Re: COVID-19/corona virus mega thread/prepping thread
« Reply #5987 on: September 13, 2021, 03:22:44 PM »

Cordex, a couple of things:

There has been a growing nursing shortage in some areas of the country for many years.  This is not a new thing.  One of the major limiting factors is not enough open slots in nursing schools, so there are not enough persons in the training pipeline.

A bed, for purposes of capacity, is a staffed bed.  So when a hospital says it has 24 med surg or ICU beds available, that means it has staffing for 24 beds.  They may physically have 50 beds in the wards, but since there is no staffing to put a patient in them, they are not counted as capacity beds.

Almost as bad as the nursing shortage for COVID, is the respiratory therapist shortage to run the ventilators, etc. for the COVID patients.  Unless you work in healthcare, the RT shortage is getting almost no attention, which I find puzzling.
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Quote from: Angel Eyes on August 09, 2018, 01:56:15 AM
You are one lousy risk manager.

cordex

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Re: COVID-19/corona virus mega thread/prepping thread
« Reply #5988 on: September 13, 2021, 04:21:45 PM »

There has been a growing nursing shortage in some areas of the country for many years.  This is not a new thing.  One of the major limiting factors is not enough open slots in nursing schools, so there are not enough persons in the training pipeline.
I understand.  My point is simply that to the extent which patient outcomes are dependent on the availability of a limited resource such as trained nurses, artificially reducing the quantity of that resource is unlikely to improve the situation.  In my opinion, people championing forceful means to reduce the demand side of the equation while simultaneously enacting policies which directly reduce the supply side of the equation are not acting in good faith and clearly do not actually care about the patient outcomes which they are using as justification for their political agenda.

A bed, for purposes of capacity, is a staffed bed.  So when a hospital says it has 24 med surg or ICU beds available, that means it has staffing for 24 beds.  They may physically have 50 beds in the wards, but since there is no staffing to put a patient in them, they are not counted as capacity beds.
I'm clear.

cordex

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Re: COVID-19/corona virus mega thread/prepping thread
« Reply #5989 on: September 13, 2021, 04:23:31 PM »

I'm not, as yet, convinced there will be "widespread" firings.  Again the Local hospitals are where I have firsthand knowledge from people there and the chance to listen in on meetings.  Around here hospital staff is low to mid 80%'s vaccinated, and people treating COVID is upper 90%'s vaccinated.  Not all of those are going to quit/be fired over this. So while 5-10% staffing drop will be very bad, That's not "widespread" (IMO) and it tends to not be in critical areas.  Other areas may differ.
Regardless of whether you would personally consider a 5-10% cut in available medical personnel to be "widespread" can we agree that such a decrease in staffing would likely not help the situation for the specific edge cases such as locations where they are already turning away some patients requiring critical care? 

Unless they have tons of qualified personnel but just no physical beds.  Then maybe firing those folks is no big deal.

dogmush

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Re: COVID-19/corona virus mega thread/prepping thread
« Reply #5990 on: September 13, 2021, 04:27:37 PM »

Only if it was a loss of staffing from the staff members that provide critical care, or are willing to be trained to provide critical care.

As I said, again only speaking for around here where I have actual knowledge, critical care staffing is in the upper 90%'s vaccinated.  So no, i don't think that whatever small percentage of healthcare workers actually stands firm and is fired over this is likely to affect critical care outcomes very much.

If you have knowledge of a large number of unvaccinated critical care workers that will be leaving, let me know.

cordex

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Re: COVID-19/corona virus mega thread/prepping thread
« Reply #5991 on: September 13, 2021, 04:58:03 PM »

Only if it was a loss of staffing from the staff members that provide critical care, or are willing to be trained to provide critical care.

As I said, again only speaking for around here where I have actual knowledge, critical care staffing is in the upper 90%'s vaccinated.  So no, i don't think that whatever small percentage of healthcare workers actually stands firm and is fired over this is likely to affect critical care outcomes very much.
=D  Whew, that's good then.

I'm old enough to remember back when we were supposed to take regional edge cases into account and realize that people were currently dying at existing staffing levels because they were being rejected from hospitals due to lack of capacity.  But if hospitals are not at risk for turning patients away because of insufficient capacity then great.

WLJ

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Re: COVID-19/corona virus mega thread/prepping thread
« Reply #5992 on: September 13, 2021, 06:20:12 PM »

Before the cameras arrived vs after… COVID theater. This is why we don’t trust these people
https://twitter.com/CarlHigbie/status/1437449967413649413?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw

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zxcvbob

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Re: COVID-19/corona virus mega thread/prepping thread
« Reply #5993 on: September 13, 2021, 06:29:28 PM »

Obviously whoever took the first picture is a racist.  Or a Trump supporter, whichever is worse.  (the facts don't matter if you sufficiently malign the reporter)
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Ben

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Re: COVID-19/corona virus mega thread/prepping thread
« Reply #5994 on: September 13, 2021, 07:28:44 PM »

Before the cameras arrived vs after… COVID theater. This is why we don’t trust these people
https://twitter.com/CarlHigbie/status/1437449967413649413?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw

[img]https://hosting.photobucket.com/images/x383/WLJohnson1/E_LZH14XIAkYHFZ.jpg

And this is one of the main reasons people get mad at mask and vaccine mandates and show vaccine hesitancy or just plain don't give a *expletive deleted*it. These "leaders" constantly chastise us while incidents like this are ridiculously common. When they don't follow their own rules (when the cameras are off) they are going to drive fence sitters to the side opposite theirs. And they don't even apologize about this stuff. Instead they are outraged that they are called out and they scream "white supremacist domestic terrorist Trumpers!"
"I'm a foolish old man that has been drawn into a wild goose chase by a harpy in trousers and a nincompoop."

Bogie

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Re: COVID-19/corona virus mega thread/prepping thread
« Reply #5995 on: September 13, 2021, 07:50:06 PM »

I have a lot of neighbors who are still enjoying the hell out of "working from home," etc...
 
And there are still a bunch who are scared to leave their houses. Because the news keeps telling them about the casedemic, and how it is deadly... But the only fatalities the news mentions are pretty much anecdotal...
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MillCreek

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Re: COVID-19/corona virus mega thread/prepping thread
« Reply #5996 on: September 13, 2021, 09:46:04 PM »

Today is the fourth day of school for my wife, and she now has the first kid in class sick with COVID. Hmm.
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MillCreek
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Quote from: Angel Eyes on August 09, 2018, 01:56:15 AM
You are one lousy risk manager.

Ben

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Re: COVID-19/corona virus mega thread/prepping thread
« Reply #5997 on: September 14, 2021, 08:41:44 AM »

One of the pioneers in the mRNA class of vaccines is saying that natural immunity is better.

Quote
“It’s now been shown in that paper and others that the breadth of that immune response in terms of T and B cell memory populations is more diverse and more long-lasting than the breadth of immune response elicited by the spike-based vaccines alone,” Dr. Robert Malone, the inventor of the class of vaccines based on messenger RNA, said on Epoch TV’s “American Thought Leaders” program.


"Even if we had 100% vaccine uptake with these vaccines…we would not be able to stop the spread of the virus through the US population. We would slow it."

Federal health authorities acknowledge natural immunity exists but have continued to claim that the protection from vaccines is better, pointing to a different set of studies, including one from Kentucky published by state and Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) researchers.

More at:

https://www.theepochtimes.com/natural-immunity-longer-lasting-than-protection-from-covid-19-vaccines-dr-robert-malone_3983305.html
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WLJ

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Re: COVID-19/corona virus mega thread/prepping thread
« Reply #5998 on: September 14, 2021, 09:14:36 AM »

And this is one of the main reasons people get mad at mask and vaccine mandates and show vaccine hesitancy or just plain don't give a *expletive deleted*it. These "leaders" constantly chastise us while incidents like this are ridiculously common. When they don't follow their own rules (when the cameras are off) they are going to drive fence sitters to the side opposite theirs. And they don't even apologize about this stuff. Instead they are outraged that they are called out and they scream "white supremacist domestic terrorist Trumpers!"

video

https://twitter.com/ArtValley818_/status/1437389801133645825?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Eembeddedtimeline%7Ctwterm%5Eprofile%3Anathancole%7Ctwgr%5EeyJ0ZndfZXhwZXJpbWVudHNfY29va2llX2V4cGlyYXRpb24iOnsiYnVja2V0IjoxMjA5NjAwLCJ2ZXJzaW9uIjpudWxsfSwidGZ3X2hvcml6b25fdHdlZXRfZW1iZWRfOTU1NSI6eyJidWNrZXQiOiJodGUiLCJ2ZXJzaW9uIjpudWxsfSwidGZ3X3NwYWNlX2NhcmQiOnsiYnVja2V0Ijoib2ZmIiwidmVyc2lvbiI6bnVsbH19%7Ctwcon%5Etimelinechrome&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.starshipstalker.com%2F
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MechAg94

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Re: COVID-19/corona virus mega thread/prepping thread
« Reply #5999 on: September 14, 2021, 11:19:42 AM »

My coworker's wife got the covid a month or more ago.  She spent a week in the hospital and was put on oxygen.  He said she is still using oxygen with her CPAP machine at night.  Still has trouble moving around without having to stop.  He said she is recovering, but slowly.   On the other hand, he never caught it.  They were on a road trip vacation just prior to her getting sick.

My company asked us to put our vaccination status in the personnel system.  Yes, No, rather-not-say were the choices.
“It is much more important to kill bad bills than to pass good ones.”  ― Calvin Coolidge
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