Author Topic: COVID-19/corona virus mega thread/prepping thread  (Read 440079 times)

Doggy Daddy

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Re: COVID-19/corona virus mega thread/prepping thread
« Reply #825 on: March 14, 2020, 01:32:31 AM »
Dammit. I'm almost certain that's a reference to a movie I've seen, but I can't remember it.

Read the book.  It's much better, and you have the time.
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Jamisjockey

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Re: COVID-19/corona virus mega thread/prepping thread
« Reply #826 on: March 14, 2020, 08:13:21 AM »
I've never been so sad about being right about everything that's happened.  My last prediction I made about a week ago is six figure infections in the US when this is all said in done.

This ride isn't anywhere close to over.

Oh, VA schools closed for 2 week minimum.
JD

 The price of a lottery ticket seems to be the maximum most folks are willing to risk toward the dream of becoming a one-percenter. “Robert Hollis”

K Frame

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Re: COVID-19/corona virus mega thread/prepping thread
« Reply #827 on: March 14, 2020, 08:24:14 AM »
Yeah, you're a regular Nostrafuckingdamus....
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Ron

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Re: COVID-19/corona virus mega thread/prepping thread
« Reply #828 on: March 14, 2020, 08:26:14 AM »
I've never been so sad about being right about everything that's happened.  My last prediction I made about a week ago is six figure infections in the US when this is all said in done.

This ride isn't anywhere close to over.

Oh, VA schools closed for 2 week minimum.

We probably already had 6 figure infections a week ago.

There is very little information out there regarding the demographics of those who've succombed and died.

From bits and pieces scattered about it seems to hit Asians, those over 60, those with underlying health issues and smokers particularly hard.

You're right though, we needed to panic earlier, before anything was in place 😄



For the invisible things of him since the creation of the world are clearly seen, being perceived through the things that are made, even his everlasting power and divinity, that they may be without excuse. Because knowing God, they didn’t glorify him as God, and didn’t give thanks, but became vain in their reasoning, and their senseless heart was darkened. Professing themselves to be wise, they became fools.

K Frame

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Re: COVID-19/corona virus mega thread/prepping thread
« Reply #829 on: March 14, 2020, 08:31:17 AM »
Read the book.  It's much better, and you have the time.

Read the book as King originally intended it.

When it was first published, his editors looked at it, said "You're a new author, and this book is going to be hugely expensive because it's so long. Cut 500 pages."

He did, and the story suffered, but it was still a huge hit.

Some years later he went back to his publisher and said "I want to publish the Stand was it was intended." And his publisher balked again, but by this time King was a massive cash cow for Doubleday and they relented, which is good, because the uncut version became a best seller again.


The miniseries was... a miniseries. Sort of like the original It miniseries. Good cast, but WAY WAY WAY too much subject material to be cogently plugged into such a short period of time allocated by the producers.
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Ben

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Re: COVID-19/corona virus mega thread/prepping thread
« Reply #830 on: March 14, 2020, 08:35:00 AM »
Man, this beer virus bill passed by a vast majority of congress is like 25% response related and 75% free stuff. I can't wait till a flu strain comes out that gets me free stuff, but once again, my demographic just gets to pay for the free stuff.
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Jamisjockey

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Re: COVID-19/corona virus mega thread/prepping thread
« Reply #831 on: March 14, 2020, 08:57:18 AM »
We probably already had 6 figure infections a week ago.

There is very little information out there regarding the demographics of those who've succombed and died.

From bits and pieces scattered about it seems to hit Asians, those over 60, those with underlying health issues and smokers particularly hard.

You're right though, we needed to panic earlier, before anything was in place 😄





I mean confirmed infections.  I imagine there is a ton of "walking wounded" right now, people who are slightly sick but think its allergies etc.
Even as much as countries like Italy or South Korea are testing, they can't be catching everyone.  It's the critical cases, and the family members of the sick who get tested.  I was reading somewhere that in some of the countries when people are presenting as critical with the correct symptoms they've even quit testing and are moving forward as if they're positive.

Italy is the country that scares me the most with this.  First world health care, and they're barely hanging on right now.
https://nypost.com/2020/03/13/coronavirus-in-italy-is-like-a-world-war-as-death-toll-soars/
I mean *expletive deleted*ck. They've hit almost 1300 fatalities in just a few weeks with only 17,000 confirmed cases.  Approx 15% of those cases are in some kind of hospital care.   
JD

 The price of a lottery ticket seems to be the maximum most folks are willing to risk toward the dream of becoming a one-percenter. “Robert Hollis”

BobR

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Re: COVID-19/corona virus mega thread/prepping thread
« Reply #832 on: March 14, 2020, 09:29:28 AM »


Italy is the country that scares me the most with this.  First world health care, and they're barely hanging on right now.https://nypost.com/2020/03/13/coronavirus-in-italy-is-like-a-world-w
ar-as-death-toll-soars/
  

Mostly first world health care. Italy has one of the lowest Nurse to Doctor ratios in the EU and if you don't think that leads to a higher mortality then I have a bridge I would like to sell you.

https://ec.europa.eu/health/sites/health/files/state/docs/chp_it_english.pdf

Also I believe another factor in the Italian thing is the amount of Chinese tourists they get every year. In 2016, the only year I looked at Italy had nearly 3.5 million Chinese tourists land on their shores. I would imagine that is even higher in 2019/2020. With Italy not screening, much less stopping the influx of Chinese, that did not help prevent the spread of the virus.

bob

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Re: COVID-19/corona virus mega thread/prepping thread
« Reply #833 on: March 14, 2020, 09:31:25 AM »
I mean confirmed infections.  I imagine there is a ton of "walking wounded" right now, people who are slightly sick but think its allergies etc.
Even as much as countries like Italy or South Korea are testing, they can't be catching everyone.  It's the critical cases, and the family members of the sick who get tested.  I was reading somewhere that in some of the countries when people are presenting as critical with the correct symptoms they've even quit testing and are moving forward as if they're positive.

Italy is the country that scares me the most with this.  First world health care, and they're barely hanging on right now.
https://nypost.com/2020/03/13/coronavirus-in-italy-is-like-a-world-war-as-death-toll-soars/
I mean *expletive deleted*ck. They've hit almost 1300 fatalities in just a few weeks with only 17,000 confirmed cases.  Approx 15% of those cases are in some kind of hospital care.    

Apparently they have a very high immigrant population from China that they imported to do the jobs Italians wouldn't do in the garment industry.

They are also very active travellers going home to China to visit and then returning frequently.

That would explain the exponential growth in cases there.

It looks like our governments plan has been what is  called "flattening the curve".

Basically acknowledging it's here, it's spreading so let's slow it down enough to manage the sickest without crashing our health care system.
For the invisible things of him since the creation of the world are clearly seen, being perceived through the things that are made, even his everlasting power and divinity, that they may be without excuse. Because knowing God, they didn’t glorify him as God, and didn’t give thanks, but became vain in their reasoning, and their senseless heart was darkened. Professing themselves to be wise, they became fools.

cordex

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Re: COVID-19/corona virus mega thread/prepping thread
« Reply #834 on: March 14, 2020, 09:45:23 AM »
I mean confirmed infections.  I imagine there is a ton of "walking wounded" right now, people who are slightly sick but think its allergies etc.
Even as much as countries like Italy or South Korea are testing, they can't be catching everyone.  It's the critical cases, and the family members of the sick who get tested.
The idea that a lot of people are going to get it isn’t controversial. Your predictions about multiple millions of dead in the US are the ones I still don’t buy.

lee n. field

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Re: COVID-19/corona virus mega thread/prepping thread
« Reply #835 on: March 14, 2020, 09:50:18 AM »
I guess the folks around here weren't as prepped as I thought.  Local Walmart looked like Black Friday - no parking, elbow to elbow inside.  Product being taking off the pallets and carts before it could be put on the shelves.

Into the local Walmart last night.  Toilet paper was gone gone gone.  Other stuff was mostly in stock.  No one seemed panicked.

Quote
Ammo sales were "brisk".  Lot's of .22, more .30-30 than I would have thought, .30-06 were the big sellers, along with 12ga.  Most people buying ammo didn't seem to really know what they wanted - "Got 7 1/2 & 8 shot, which one you want?" "Uhhh, what do you think I should get?".

One thing I noticed -- The local WM, post them pulling ammo at the behest/badgering of the Demandy Moms, still has plenty of .308/7.62x51.  So, one can still feed their mid-century freedom rifles (FALs and what not) from Walmart.
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Re: COVID-19/corona virus mega thread/prepping thread
« Reply #836 on: March 14, 2020, 09:50:40 AM »
Another consideration Does it spread faster or more lethally among populations where a high percentage are cigarette smokers? 70% of adult males in China, I don’t know the percentages but Italy and Spain and France are all higher than USA
What we have here is failure to communicate.

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Re: COVID-19/corona virus mega thread/prepping thread
« Reply #837 on: March 14, 2020, 09:52:01 AM »
I’m working on a recipe for home made toilet paper.
What we have here is failure to communicate.

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Re: COVID-19/corona virus mega thread/prepping thread
« Reply #838 on: March 14, 2020, 09:56:37 AM »
Another consideration Does it spread faster or more lethally among populations where a high percentage are cigarette smokers? 70% of adult males in China, I don’t know the percentages but Italy and Spain and France are all higher than USA

That is definitely a factor, not sure about spreading faster but it definitely hits harder.  From what I recall USA has about  15% smokers and Italy was closer to 25%
In the moral, catatonic stupor America finds itself in today it is only disagreement we seek, and the more virulent that disagreement, the better.

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Re: COVID-19/corona virus mega thread/prepping thread
« Reply #839 on: March 14, 2020, 10:00:23 AM »
Another consideration Does it spread faster or more lethally among populations where a high percentage are cigarette smokers? 70% of adult males in China, I don’t know the percentages but Italy and Spain and France are all higher than USA

It's a comorbidity factor for sure, but one of the recent Chinese studies put high blood pressure above smoking. 
The known factors are that any underlying health issues, along with age, increase your chances of requiring hospitalization or being a fatality.
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Re: COVID-19/corona virus mega thread/prepping thread
« Reply #840 on: March 14, 2020, 10:01:43 AM »
Read the book as King originally intended it.

When it was first published, his editors looked at it, said "You're a new author, and this book is going to be hugely expensive because it's so long. Cut 500 pages."

He did, and the story suffered, but it was still a huge hit.

Some years later he went back to his publisher and said "I want to publish the Stand was it was intended." And his publisher balked again, but by this time King was a massive cash cow for Doubleday and they relented, which is good, because the uncut version became a best seller again.


The miniseries was... a miniseries. Sort of like the original It miniseries. Good cast, but WAY WAY WAY too much subject material to be cogently plugged into such a short period of time allocated by the producers.

Picked up the Stand miniseries out of Walmart's cheapo bin last night.  A little amusement if we get holed hp here.  From what Wikipedia tells me, depending on what release you get, some of them have a lot more material.
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Re: COVID-19/corona virus mega thread/prepping thread
« Reply #841 on: March 14, 2020, 10:05:09 AM »
The idea that a lot of people are going to get it isn’t controversial. Your predictions about multiple millions of dead in the US are the ones I still don’t buy.

I said if it's allowed to just run wild.  Tamping down on letting it run is how this becomes background noise instead of an outbreak.

The Spanish flu died out because in some places it ran it's course.  2.5% mortality rate led to tens of millions of deaths world wide.
Read up on it for an understanding of what could happen.  https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/1918-pandemic-h1n1.html
China shuttered their entire country for 2 months to stop COVID19 from running wild.
I'm not sure why some people don't get the logic in this process?  Do we let something with the same mortality rate as the spanish flu just run wild through the 7.7 billion people of the world?  That would be fun.
JD

 The price of a lottery ticket seems to be the maximum most folks are willing to risk toward the dream of becoming a one-percenter. “Robert Hollis”

brimic

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Re: COVID-19/corona virus mega thread/prepping thread
« Reply #842 on: March 14, 2020, 10:08:25 AM »
I've never been so sad about being right about everything that's happened.  My last prediction I made about a week ago is six figure infections in the US when this is all said in done.

This ride isn't anywhere close to over.

Oh, VA schools closed for 2 week minimum.

I know how you feel. No one would listen. Most are still in denial. Local talk show was still talking about this as a ploy to hurt Trump, and they want their sportsball back last night.
It’s going to get a lot worse, and I don’t like being right about it.
I made a shitton of money in the last few weeks, I wonder if that is even going to matter. I don’t feel good about being right about that either.



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Ron

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Re: COVID-19/corona virus mega thread/prepping thread
« Reply #843 on: March 14, 2020, 10:12:48 AM »
Corona virus outbreaks generally burn out.

The unknown here is when this one will peter out.

Then, will it reappear next fall?

For the invisible things of him since the creation of the world are clearly seen, being perceived through the things that are made, even his everlasting power and divinity, that they may be without excuse. Because knowing God, they didn’t glorify him as God, and didn’t give thanks, but became vain in their reasoning, and their senseless heart was darkened. Professing themselves to be wise, they became fools.

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Re: COVID-19/corona virus mega thread/prepping thread
« Reply #844 on: March 14, 2020, 10:23:12 AM »
Corona virus outbreaks generally burn out.

The unknown here is when this one will peter out.

Then, will it reappear next fall?



I think the hope is that it will mutate like the Spanish flu did.  I can't imagine it won't crop back up.
JD

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Re: COVID-19/corona virus mega thread/prepping thread
« Reply #845 on: March 14, 2020, 10:29:49 AM »
Jesus *expletive deleted*ing Christ, some of you ass clowns are talking as if this is the human extinction event of all human extinction events...

Stop being *expletive deleted*ing panic monkeys!
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Re: COVID-19/corona virus mega thread/prepping thread
« Reply #846 on: March 14, 2020, 10:46:46 AM »
Tamping down on letting it run is how this becomes background noise instead of an outbreak.

The best part is that if we take the proper measures and it works, everyone will just say that it was no big deal and we didn't need to do all that.
 :facepalm: :mad:
In the moral, catatonic stupor America finds itself in today it is only disagreement we seek, and the more virulent that disagreement, the better.

cordex

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Re: COVID-19/corona virus mega thread/prepping thread
« Reply #847 on: March 14, 2020, 10:52:50 AM »
I'm not sure why some people don't get the logic in this process?
At root your logic is bad.  Not necessarily about addressing a disease, but about the relative severity of this one.

Only one of the following statements can be true.   Not both of them:
I imagine there is a ton of "walking wounded" right now, people who are slightly sick but think its allergies etc.
Even as much as countries like Italy or South Korea are testing, they can't be catching everyone.  It's the critical cases, and the family members of the sick who get tested.  I was reading somewhere that in some of the countries when people are presenting as critical with the correct symptoms they've even quit testing and are moving forward as if they're positive.
Do we let something with the same mortality rate as the spanish flu just run wild through the 7.7 billion people of the world?  That would be fun.

If the undetected infection rate is much higher than the detected (and I agree that it almost certainly is) then the mortality rate is not the same as the Spanish Flu.  If the mortality rate is the same as the Spanish Flu (and I don't think it is) then there are almost certainly not hordes of walking wounded out there for whom the impact is minimal.

The two points are mutually exclusive but you bounce them off of each other to get to alarmist numbers.  That doesn't mean we should do nothing, or let this run unchecked, or pretend Trump's handling is absolutely perfect, or consider this to be no worse than the common cold.

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Re: COVID-19/corona virus mega thread/prepping thread
« Reply #848 on: March 14, 2020, 10:59:38 AM »
Jesus *expletive deleted*ing Christ, some of you ass clowns are talking as if this is the human extinction event of all human extinction events...

Stop being *expletive deleted*ing panic monkeys!

You know, part of that is the complete unknown about this virus.  One article I read says it's like a respiratory illness that puts you on the couch for a while, you hydrate a d take care.  Absent other health issues, you get better.  Two articles later and I'm reading how this hits like a sledge hammer, the sick have no energy, and most will struggle to breathe, requiring oxygen therapy or mechanical respirators.   Which one is internet crap, and which one is true, I have no idea.
No, I'm not mtnbkr.  ;)

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Re: COVID-19/corona virus mega thread/prepping thread
« Reply #849 on: March 14, 2020, 11:01:29 AM »
Meanwhile

*Sigh*



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