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Author Topic: The Great Reopening  (Read 5192 times)

charby

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Re: The Great Reopening
« Reply #50 on: May 01, 2020, 09:38:21 AM »

I work for uncle sam.  I know quite a few people who have.  Hell, as difficult as it is to get disciplined for leave abuse, I know a dude in my area who got a disciplinary letter last year for sick leave abuse.
We just got rid of his buddy (sent to an administrative job when he lost his medical).  That guy, slipped and fell (probably drunk) at home and ended up with a brain bleed which led to a seizure.  Hospital for a few weeks.  Near 0 any kind of leave balance when he went in and ended up on the leave donation roster.  *expletive deleted*ck you. 

I work for both State of Iowa and Uncle Sugar (state writes the pay check and benefits), sick leave is basically after 2 days, you have to call a 3rd party group to fill out a bunch of paperwork on why its more than 2 days. Surprisingly in my department when a leave donation call gets sent out, almost everyone has burned several weeks of leave and just needing a week or two to get them to temp disability insurance. Last couple have been terminal cancer folks that aren't going to return to work.
Iowa- 88% more livable that the rest of the US

Uranus is a gas giant.

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Boomhauer

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Re: The Great Reopening
« Reply #51 on: May 01, 2020, 09:43:02 AM »

Paid leave is paid leave, especially if you employer has a use it or lose it policy for paid leave, one should not be poo-pooed for not using it. I also understand why some companies have gone to a PTO program where sick/vacation are merged together. I bet we all have a story where a coworker used up every bit of leave as soon as it was available to use.

We went to an all PTO time a couple years ago. New hires get 144 hours, after 5 years you get 160 hours. 4 weeks off is very good time off IMHO. Also nice is that I can actually use it, unlike when I was with the state when we accumulated a ton of time but using it was very difficult. My bosses are very chill about us taking it, two years ago I had to take a week and a half off for my father’s death and this year I had to take a week off no notice to care for my dog after he had emergency back surgery.

As an incentive to not use it all you can save up to 40 hours and get a check cut for the amount after the end of the year. Last year they allowed up to 80 hours. No rollovers.
Quote from: Ben
Holy hell. It's like giving a loaded gun to a chimpanzee...

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the last thing you need is rabies. You're already angry enough as it is.

OTOH, there wouldn't be a tweeker left in Georgia...

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charby

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Re: The Great Reopening
« Reply #52 on: May 01, 2020, 09:43:15 AM »

I cannot understand that mentality.

I'm always having to figure out what to do since half the year I'm usually nearing my max vacation leave. (And my sick leave is pretty much always at max- we have separate banks for sick and vacation leave.)

After summer vacations, I usually have a small breather for worrying about that, but currently I'm less than 20 hours away from my max. I likely will have to take a day off this month, in fact.

I understand people using vacation as much as possible (what vacation is for), but sick leave especially when you and your family are relatively healthy. I have the same problem with vacation, I usually have 5-6 weeks in the bank, if not more (cap is 11 weeks for my years of employment) and save up enough sick leave in plenty of excess to get me past temp disability insurance. I have congenital heart disease, never taken it for granted that I will be able to work to retirement age.
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Ben

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Re: The Great Reopening
« Reply #53 on: May 01, 2020, 10:47:17 AM »

Today is the first day of our phased reopening. From what I read in the paper, rules are confusing as hell between what gov says you can and can't do and individual businesses say you can and can't do in them. I'm gonna have to keep a mask in my car since mask/no mask seems to be the biggest variable on the private side.

I still say if a private business is going to require masks (without the gov telling them to) they should offer free  (or even a buck or two) cloth masks at their doors for those potential customers that were unaware. Seems dumb to turn away business, because if I went to a place unaware without a mask, it's not like I'm going home to get one and coming right back.

Also, interesting side note, I read that some businesses (not specific to me -  I read it on CNN or somewhere) will be refusing anyone entry if their mask has a valve on it, because the valve can release infected particles. So much for being a smartass and wearing my gas mask.  :laugh:
"I'm a foolish old man that has been drawn into a wild goose chase by a harpy in trousers and a nincompoop."

Kingcreek

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Re: The Great Reopening
« Reply #54 on: May 01, 2020, 11:34:16 AM »

2020 day planners are really cheap now.
Illinois is starting to loosen some things up but a lot of it makes no sense whatsoever.
What we have here is failure to communicate.

makattak

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Re: The Great Reopening
« Reply #55 on: May 01, 2020, 11:35:08 AM »

2020 day planners are really cheap now.
Illinois is starting to loosen some things up but a lot of it makes no sense whatsoever.

To modify the State Farm commercial:

Well, it's Illinois, so....
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TFerguson

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Re: The Great Reopening
« Reply #56 on: May 01, 2020, 12:05:31 PM »

2020 day planners are really cheap now.
Illinois is starting to loosen some things up but a lot of it makes no sense whatsoever.

The left takes its vision seriously - more seriously than it takes the rights of other people. They want to be our shepherds. But that requires us to be sheep.
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Perd Hapley

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Re: The Great Reopening
« Reply #57 on: May 04, 2020, 04:57:16 PM »

The following is from the Wall Street Journal (trans-paywall), via The Daily Wire.

Quote
Even though many states are now lifting lockdown restrictions, particularly those states where the coronavirus “peak” has already come and gone, Americans are leaving their homes in “trickles, not droves,” according to the Wall Street Journal, and absent a few notable exceptions, are largely abiding by “social distancing” and other virus-related restrictions without the threat of fines and jail time.

https://www.dailywire.com/news/even-with-lockdowns-lifted-americans-went-out-in-trickles-not-droves

I think this is a good indication that states re-opening are making the right decision. People aren't flooding into bars and barber shops to slobber on one another. Sure, there may be people who want to act like it's all over, and the virus is no big deal, but it seems most people are trying to be careful. Or maybe people can't afford to go anywhere or do anything. If so, that just shows we've been shut down long enough, and it's time to let people make a living. 
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Boomhauer

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Re: The Great Reopening
« Reply #58 on: May 04, 2020, 05:17:51 PM »

bUt tHe DeAth tOlL aND cAsE nUMbeRs aRe sTiLL inCreAsing
Quote from: Ben
Holy hell. It's like giving a loaded gun to a chimpanzee...

Quote from: bluestarlizzard
the last thing you need is rabies. You're already angry enough as it is.

OTOH, there wouldn't be a tweeker left in Georgia...

Quote from: Balog
BLOOD FOR THE BLOOD GOD! SKULLS FOR THE SKULL THRONE! AND THROW SOME STEAK ON THE GRILL!

MillCreek

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_____________
Regards,
MillCreek
Snohomish County, WA  USA


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You are one lousy risk manager.

Ron

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MechAg94

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Re: The Great Reopening
« Reply #61 on: May 04, 2020, 07:57:15 PM »

Why do I keep seeing 60k+ deaths in the media when the cdc has it so much lower?

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm
I saw that link over the weekend.  It was 37,000 or so on Saturday.  Looks like they are updating it.  Also note they have a couple columns over to the right that shows deaths from multiple causes that may include COVID-19. 


It shows 740,000 for all causes so far this year.  That is quite a few deaths.  Puts some of this in perspective.
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DittoHead

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Re: The Great Reopening
« Reply #62 on: May 04, 2020, 10:18:13 PM »

Why do I keep seeing 60k+ deaths in the media when the cdc has it so much lower?

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm
Probably referencing this
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/cases-in-us.html
(which lists 67,456 deaths at the moment)
I see no reason to give more power to the state when it can reside with the individual.

“As states are a collection of individual men, which ought we to respect most: the rights of the people composing them, or the artificial beings resulting from the composition?” asked Alexander Hamilton. “Nothing could be more preposterous or absurd than to sacrifice the former to the latter.”

sumpnz

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Re: The Great Reopening
« Reply #63 on: May 05, 2020, 12:33:31 AM »

https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/05/04/850143460/white-house-rejects-government-report-projecting-rising-coronavirus-death-toll?utm_medium=RSS&utm_campaign=nprblogscoronavirusliveupdates

Hmm, governmental estimates are for 3,000 per day dying by June 1. I guess we will see.

"All models are wrong, but some are useful."

How many of the models have been even remotely close enough to reality to call them useful? 

Nick1911

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Re: The Great Reopening
« Reply #64 on: May 05, 2020, 12:53:31 AM »

"All models are wrong, but some are useful."

How many of the models have been even remotely close enough to reality to call them useful? 

Good question.

What models do we have that time proved to be not remotely close enough to be useful, and what's left?  Honest question, I haven't read many of the whitepapers or pre-publish stuff since early March.

sumpnz

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Re: The Great Reopening
« Reply #65 on: May 05, 2020, 01:07:37 AM »

I certainly could be wrong but I don't think a single model has been close enough in retrospect to have been useful.  At least all the ones I remember were off by an order of magnitude of worse.  I think the initial predictions, IF WE LOCKED DOWN AS WE DID, was at least several times, if not 10x the deaths we actually saw.  Assuming the death counts are even representative of reality and not over-inflated. 

Ron

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Re: The Great Reopening
« Reply #66 on: May 05, 2020, 08:00:21 AM »

Probably referencing this
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/cases-in-us.html
(which lists 67,456 deaths at the moment)

Thanks

So the CDC is speaking with a forked tongue.

Referencing my CDC link we see the devil is in the details.

Herd and group think aren't known for their attention to details.

Everybody gets to see what they want to see.

Chaos by design.
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Who can escape their own cognitive biases?

Hawkmoon

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Re: The Great Reopening
« Reply #67 on: May 05, 2020, 09:36:04 AM »

I saw that link over the weekend.  It was 37,000 or so on Saturday.  Looks like they are updating it.  Also note they have a couple columns over to the right that shows deaths from multiple causes that may include COVID-19.  


It shows 740,000 for all causes so far this year.  That is quite a few deaths.  Puts some of this in perspective.

The data compiled and maintained by Johns-Hopkins are generally regarded as the most accurate and up-to-date. As of this morning (5 May) they show 68,934 deaths from CV-19 in the U.S.

https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

cordex

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Re: The Great Reopening
« Reply #68 on: May 05, 2020, 09:36:36 AM »

So the CDC is speaking with a forked tongue.

They are showing two different datasets.  One is based on national published death records and is slower to update.  The other is based on reported confirmed and probable deaths that (as far as I can tell) is reported more regularly by the states.

Quote
The provisional counts for coronavirus disease (COVID-19) deaths are based on a current flow of mortality data in the National Vital Statistics System. National provisional counts include deaths occurring within the 50 states and the District of Columbia that have been received and coded as of the date specified. It is important to note that it can take several weeks for death records to be submitted to National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS), processed, coded, and tabulated. Therefore, the data shown on this page may be incomplete, and will likely not include all deaths that occurred during a given time period, especially for the more recent time periods. Death counts for earlier weeks are continually revised and may increase or decrease as new and updated death certificate data are received from the states by NCHS. COVID-19 death counts shown here may differ from other published sources, as data currently are lagged by an average of 1–2 weeks.

Quote
As of April 14, 2020, CDC case counts and death counts include both confirmed and probable cases and deaths. This change was made to reflect an interim COVID-19 position statement pdf iconexternal iconissued by the Council for State and Territorial Epidemiologists on April 5, 2020. The position statement included a case definition and made COVID-19 a nationally notifiable disease.

A confirmed case or death is defined by meeting confirmatory laboratory evidence for COVID-19.

A probable case or death is defined by one of the following:

Meeting clinical criteria AND epidemiologic evidence with no confirmatory laboratory testing performed for COVID-19
Meeting presumptive laboratory evidence AND either clinical criteria OR epidemiologic evidence
Meeting vital records criteria with no confirmatory laboratory testing performed for COVID19

DittoHead

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Re: The Great Reopening
« Reply #69 on: May 05, 2020, 10:02:24 AM »

They are showing two different datasets.  One is based on national published death records and is slower to update.
My assumption is that the lagging one is their standard system that has been in place for years and is fine for most purposes. However, having numbers be that far behind can be problematic during a pandemic where exponential growth occurs so they setup a rapid reporting system focused just on Covid19 to get more up-to-date information.

That or one page is run by QAnon patriots and reports the truth while the other is run by the lizard people and is not only fake news but will eventually brainwash you.  [tinfoil]
I see no reason to give more power to the state when it can reside with the individual.

“As states are a collection of individual men, which ought we to respect most: the rights of the people composing them, or the artificial beings resulting from the composition?” asked Alexander Hamilton. “Nothing could be more preposterous or absurd than to sacrifice the former to the latter.”

Ron

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Re: The Great Reopening
« Reply #70 on: May 05, 2020, 07:15:17 PM »

My assumption is that the lagging one is their standard system that has been in place for years and is fine for most purposes. However, having numbers be that far behind can be problematic during a pandemic where exponential growth occurs so they setup a rapid reporting system focused just on Covid19 to get more up-to-date information.

That or one page is run by QAnon patriots and reports the truth while the other is run by the lizard people and is not only fake news but will eventually brainwash you.  [tinfoil]

Yes, questioning sources of important information that are not agreeing with each other on how many are infected or have died (39k - 69K depending on source) means you must believe in conspiracies.

Be a good citizen comrade, believe the authorities and obey.

How dare you doubt the models, they're SCIENCE!  :rofl:

  
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Perd Hapley

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Re: The Great Reopening
« Reply #71 on: May 12, 2020, 11:54:30 AM »

https://www.dailywire.com/news/andrew-cuomo-says-parts-of-ny-state-can-reopen-on-friday

So is opening acceptable now, or has Cuomo become one of those crazy, racist, anti-vaxxer, Covid-deniers?

???
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RocketMan

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Re: The Great Reopening
« Reply #72 on: May 12, 2020, 04:02:24 PM »

SWMBO and I were running errands around town today.  Lots of permanently closed businesses, mostly restaurants.
Very sad, but I guess if it saved just one life...
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Perd Hapley

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Re: The Great Reopening
« Reply #73 on: May 12, 2020, 04:18:27 PM »

SWMBO and I were running errands around town today.  Lots of permanently closed businesses, mostly restaurants.
Very sad, but I guess if it saved just one life...

We could use some job-creators right now, even if they don't build that and somebody else makes that happen.
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Ben

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Re: The Great Reopening
« Reply #74 on: May 12, 2020, 04:52:17 PM »

So CNN's take is that people are now saving instead of spending, and reducing credit card debt,  and that's bad. I get what they want to say regarding commerce keeping the economy churning, but really, find another way to say it.

In truth, in the last couple of decades, and especially the last decade, we have become crazy over-consumers. I admit I'm often one of them with spur of the moment splurge buying on Amazon, etc. where the purchase is a click away on a saved credit card at the website. It would do us good to step back from "buy! buy! buy!" and do at least a little saving, or at least not carrying so much credit card debt. It could be something good coming out of the whole virus response.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/12/investing/jobs-coronavirus-consumer-spending-debt/index.html

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