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Author Topic: Progress report on Washington state red flag laws  (Read 615 times)

MillCreek

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Progress report on Washington state red flag laws
« on: June 02, 2021, 09:01:03 AM »

https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/washington-was-at-the-forefront-of-a-gun-violence-prevention-law-heres-how-its-played-out/

Washington was one of the first states to have a red flag law.  Interesting how many petitions were filed on the basis of potential self-harm.
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MillCreek
Snohomish County, WA  USA


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MechAg94

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Re: Progress report on Washington state red flag laws
« Reply #1 on: June 02, 2021, 09:46:34 AM »

Quote
Studies in Connecticut and Indiana show that for every 10 to 20 petitions granted by a judge, one suicide is prevented, he said.
That is a lot of people affected who are apparently not suicidal yet they call this a success.  I wonder if they apply the same standard to criminal suspects. 
« Last Edit: June 02, 2021, 04:02:22 PM by MechAg94 »
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dogmush

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Re: Progress report on Washington state red flag laws
« Reply #2 on: June 02, 2021, 09:57:30 AM »

That is a lot of people affected who apparently not suicidal yet they call this a success.  I wonder if they apply the same standard to criminal suspects.

Are non suicidal people being affected,  or are the other 19 folks hanging themselves?

MechAg94

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Re: Progress report on Washington state red flag laws
« Reply #3 on: June 02, 2021, 04:08:08 PM »

I don't know if they care.  It is that silly game of "if it just saves one life......." that apparently justifies them to trample over every right, law, and custom. 

I would ask how they know it saved a life?  All they are doing is taking the guns (that they know about).  IMO, the better course of action in the cases they highlight is to put them in for mental evaluation.  They mention one guy who thought people were following him.  Then they show up and take all his guns away.  I am sure that made him feel better. 
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JTHunter

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Re: Progress report on Washington state red flag laws
« Reply #4 on: June 02, 2021, 05:04:15 PM »

All they are doing is taking the guns (that they know about).

And that is part of the problem.
Why don't they take the person's car as well?  After all, they can go out and drive into a bridge abutment, causing who knows how much damage.  Or they could drive it into other vehicles, harming others.
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Hawkmoon

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Re: Progress report on Washington state red flag laws
« Reply #5 on: June 02, 2021, 06:51:23 PM »

Heh, heh ...

Quote
Juveniles, people convicted of felonies, anyone arrested or convicted of a crime of domestic violence, subjects of domestic-violence protection orders and anyone ordered by the court into involuntary mental-health treatment for 14 days are not legally allowed to own guns, so an ERPO does not apply to them. As of January, anyone involuntarily committed for up to five days loses eligibility to legally possess firearms for six months.

So the cops can't use "ERPOs" to go after guns owned or possessed by convicted felons. Good to know.

And if a person is already the subject of a domestic violence protection order -- why should they be hit with another protection order? This is another example of a law against something not working, so the answer is to enact another law making [____] more uber-illegaler.


Quote
Though more research is needed on whether ERPOs are effective in preventing firearm deaths, Dr. Ali Rowhani-Rahbar, an associate professor of epidemiology at the University of Washington’s School of Public Health, said early evidence looks promising. Studies in Connecticut and Indiana show that for every 10 to 20 petitions granted by a judge, one suicide is prevented, he said.

I read that as saying that ERPOs are effective in between 5% and 10% of cases -- which is another way of saying that they have a failure rate of 90 or 95 percent. That doesn't sound to me like a great basis for justifying the prohibition on a [supposedly] guaranteed constitutional  right.

Cliffh

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Re: Progress report on Washington state red flag laws
« Reply #6 on: June 04, 2021, 08:21:02 PM »

How do they know that a suicide has been prevented?  Did the person tell them "OMG, thank you for taking my firearms, I was going to kill myself but now I can't/won't?"

MillCreek

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Re: Progress report on Washington state red flag laws
« Reply #7 on: August 07, 2022, 11:47:01 AM »

_____________
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MillCreek
Snohomish County, WA  USA


Quote from: Angel Eyes on August 09, 2018, 01:56:15 AM
You are one lousy risk manager.

HankB

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Re: Progress report on Washington state red flag laws
« Reply #8 on: August 07, 2022, 12:11:01 PM »

Quote
Though more research is needed on whether ERPOs are effective in preventing firearm deaths, Dr. Ali Rowhani-Rahbar, an associate professor of epidemiology at the University of Washington’s School of Public Health, said early evidence looks promising. Studies in Connecticut and Indiana show that for every 10 to 20 petitions granted by a judge, one suicide is prevented, he said.
This could mean only 1 person in 10 or 20 was actually suicidal, and the other 9-19 had their rights violated for no good reason.
« Last Edit: August 07, 2022, 01:29:17 PM by HankB »
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Hawkmoon

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Re: Progress report on Washington state red flag laws
« Reply #9 on: August 07, 2022, 01:28:21 PM »

This could amean only 1 person in 10 or 20 was actually suicidal, and the other 9-19 had their rights violated for no good reason.

There's also a significant statistical difference between one in ten compared against one in twenty.

griz

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Re: Progress report on Washington state red flag laws
« Reply #10 on: August 07, 2022, 06:50:41 PM »

How do they know that a suicide has been prevented?  Did the person tell them "OMG, thank you for taking my firearms, I was going to kill myself but now I can't/won't?"

According to the Connecticut study mentioned in the article, they estimated it using this method:

The study undertook a quasi-experimental analysis of the effect of the gun
seizure policy on suicides by: (1) using the known case fatality rates for different
methods of suicide to estimate the total number of suicide attempts represented
by the recorded number of deaths by suicide; (2) extrapolating a counterfactual
number of would-be suicide deaths, that is, excess deaths that would have
occurred if the gun seizure subjects had kept their guns and used them in suicide
attempts at the same rate as other gun-owning men in the United States; (3)
estimating the number of lives saved by subtracting the actual number from the
counterfactual estimate of suicide deaths; and (4) calculating the number of gun
removal cases needed for each averted suicide, by dividing the total number of
removal cases by the estimated number of prevented suicides


That's probably about as close as you can estimate it, but it's still a pretty rough guess.  The report does make it clear though, that these are very troubled people that they're talking about.  They said the rate of suicide among those who had their guns removed was something like 40 times higher than average.  That's 21 people who killed themselves after Connecticut decided to disarm them.  To me it shows the law isn't that effective, but they come right out and say:

Importantly, however, only six of the twenty-one suicides in the study
were carried out with guns, while fifteen used other means


I have no doubt that the people in this example are, as I said earlier, very troubled people that need help.  Indeed, the biggest success mentioned in the report is that this legal process introduced many of them to the mental health care they need.  It just seems to me that the focus should be on helping these people deal with their issues, not ONLY taking away their guns.  Their answer in the conclusion is that most people who attempt suicide with a gun are successful the first time, while people that use other means usually fail at first.  They have a point, but does it make sense to make laws for only guns when their mental health is the actual problem?

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Hawkmoon

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Re: Progress report on Washington state red flag laws
« Reply #11 on: August 07, 2022, 07:16:12 PM »

People who want to commit suicide find a way.

A number of years, a guy I had worked with for awhile when we were both freelancers at the same assignment became a friendly acquaintance outside of work. We did a couple of canoe trips (day paddles) together, hung out with some of the same people, etcetera. He was also pretty good friends with the office administrator where we were working. At one point the admin became concerned about the guy's mental state. I'm not sure how she managed it, but she got him into a mental health center for a three-day evaluation for suicide risk. At the end of the three days, they decided he wasn't at risk, so they sent him home.

He then climbed into his pickup truck, drove down the road a couple of miles from his house, and parked the truck across the main Amtrak line that ran through town. He picked a spot where both the road and the rail line were cut through a huge rock outcrop, and the rail line was on a curve so there was no way the engineer could have seen the truck in time to slow down.

So, if this had happened in 2022 and they had taken guns away from him because he was at risk -- would they have counted his case as a suicide prevented, because he couldn't shoot himself with the gun they took away?

sumpnz

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Re: Progress report on Washington state red flag laws
« Reply #12 on: August 07, 2022, 07:20:02 PM »

When there are severe penalties for those that make false reports to generate an ERPO I might be willing to support their existence.

There even needs to be some sanctions for those who, while honestly, erroneously report someone resulting in an ERPO.  Enough to give people pause before they file the report.