New York is Minus One House Seat

[Ben]

Apparently NY has lost a house seat, falling 89 people short in the census to keep it. How many nursing home deaths were there?

https://twitchy.com/brettt-3136/2021/04/26/brutal-new-york-wouldnt-have-lost-a-house-seat-if-the-census-had-counted-only-89-more-people/

[lee n. field]

I read Illinois is losing one too.

[Ben]

Hopefully these are in blue areas of those states.

[WLJ]

Too late for the station wagon?

[Angel Eyes]

California is losing one seat as well.  Scuttlebutt is that East Los Angeles will be impacted.

Meanwhile, Texas will be gaining 2 seats.

[WLJ]

Axios
@axios
·
6h
States that lose a House seat (and an electoral vote)

• California (for the first time)
• Illinois
• NY
• Mich.
• Penn.
• Ohio
• West Va.

States that gain a House seat (and electoral vote)

• Texas (x2)
• Colo.
• Fla.
• Montana
• NC
• Ore.

https://twitter.com/axios/status/1386765030507651073

[MechAg94]

So does all this take affect before the next federal election?

[Brad Johnson]

Brad

[griz]

So does all this take affect before the next federal election?

I believe so.  The next step is for the affected states to re-district so that would be in effect in November.  I'm assuming the reps would stay as is until then but I'm not sure.

[HankB]

So not a perfect result, but overall from the raw numbers it looks like a net loss for the lefty states. We'll see how the redistricting process goes. (Bet NY won't get rid of AOC's seat.)

[MechAg94]

So not a perfect result, but overall from the raw numbers it looks like a net loss for the lefty states. We'll see how the redistricting process goes. (Bet NY won't get rid of AOC's seat.)

She has done a lot of fundraising so likely not.  Money talks.

[sumpnz]

So not a perfect result, but overall from the raw numbers it looks like a net loss for the lefty states. We'll see how the redistricting process goes. (Bet NY won't get rid of AOC's seat.)

You are assuming the election will free and fair.  Between the media doing everything possible to put extra weight on left side of the scale, and the fraud machine they perfected in the POTUS election, I doubt very much that the R’s will be allowed to take the house.

[kgbsquirrel]

You are assuming the election will free and fair.  Between the media doing everything possible to put extra weight on left side of the scale, and the fraud machine they perfected in the POTUS election, I doubt very much that the R’s will be allowed to take the house.

Yup.

[Angel Eyes]

https://babylonbee.com/news/cuomo-regretting-killing-all-those-elderly-after-losing-house-seat

[charby]

So does all this take affect before the next federal election?

should be for the 2022 Midterms.

[Angel Eyes]

Hmm ... not so fast:

https://townhall.com/columnists/stephenmoore/2021/05/04/why-did-biden-census-bureau-add-25-million-more-residents-to-bluestate-population-count-n2588890

There is something very fishy about the new 2020 Census Bureau data determining which states picked up seats and which states lost seats.

Most all of the revisions to the original estimates have moved in one direction: Population gains were added to blue states, and population losses were subtracted from red states. The December revisions in population estimates under the Biden Census Bureau added some 2.5 million blue-state residents and subtracted more than 500,000 red-state residents. These population estimates determine how many electoral votes each state receives for presidential elections and the number of congressional seats in each state.

...

Here are some of the strange outcomes in the Census revisions just released:

No. 1: New York -- We've been tracking the annual population/migration changes between states since the last census in 2010. Over the past decade, New York LOST about 1.3 million residents on net to other states. (This does not include immigration, births and deaths.) Still, this is a population loss that is the equivalent of two, maybe three, lost congressional seats. But the final numbers ADDED approximately 860,000. That's roughly twice the population of Buffalo and Rochester -- combined. This is the state that has lost by far the largest population over the past decade.

No. 2: Many deep-blue states had 2020 census numbers significantly revised upward from their December estimates: Connecticut, Hawaii, Illinois, Massachusetts, New Jersey, New York, Rhode Island and Vermont.

No. 3: Many red states had 2020 census numbers lower than their 2020 estimates: Arizona, North Carolina and South Carolina.

No. 4: Going back to the 2010 Census, the final head count in every state was within 0.4% of the original estimate, and 30 of them were within 0.2 percent. This time around, 19 states were more than 1 percent off, 7 were more than 2 percent off, NY was more than 3.8 percent off, and NJ was more than 4.5 percent off.

No. 5: Virtually every one of the large deviations from the estimates favored Democrats. Just five states in the 2020 census were within the same margin (0.41 percent) that all states were within from the 2010 census.

Maybe the 2010 estimates were abnormally accurate, or maybe the 2020 estimates were abnormally inaccurate. The Census Bureau needs to tell Congress why these revisions under former President Barack Obama were so much larger than normal and so weighted in one direction: toward the blue states.

[Hawkmoon]

Hopefully these are in blue areas of those states.

When a state loses (or gains) a seat, they have to redraw the congressional district lines. Usually, the party in power in the state government is in control of the redrawing, and they make certain that ALL the newly defined districts belong to their party.

There's a word for it: Gerrymandering

[RoadKingLarry]

They did with the election, why wouldn't the do it with the census?

[Bogie]

Prediction: NYC gains a seat, upstate NY loses two...

[Hawkmoon]

Here's what the current map looks like. You can just imagine the fun they'll have redrawing it to eliminate one district.

http://cdn.moelane.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/03/Final-New-York-Special-Master-Map.jpg

As an example of the games they play, 30 (or so) years ago my state had one more district than it has now. At the time, I lived directly across the street from an uncle. Same town, same street, same zip code (but a different +4). I was in one congressional district, he was in a different one.

[griz]

That's quite a twist on the apocryphal Stalin quote "It not who votes, but who counts the votes."  We'll have to add "who counts the voters" in there.

[K Frame]

Eliminating house seats in liberal states is racist.

[Angel Eyes]

Eliminating house seats in liberal states is racist.

Not if the eliminated seat is in a red district.  Then it's progressive.

[WLJ]

The NYTs can't see it from their office

[kgbsquirrel]

So what they really are saying is that NY should have lost many more than one delegate and same with California and others.