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Author Topic: What would start the next civil war?  (Read 3486 times)

peteinct

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What would start the next civil war?
« on: July 30, 2021, 09:07:37 AM »

I was talking to the guys at work and I said I wouldnt be surprised to see an another civil war in my lifetime(25 years). Someone asked me what would be the trigger point to start a shooting war. He believes we are are too comfortable in the US and will never get to an active rebellion. Considering the path we are going down now, I couldnt think of anything that would get enough people mad enough to actually start something.  His thought was vaccine side effects that were so bad that they couldnt be hidden. Mine was an outright seizure of 401k money. What do you guys think? Is there going to be something that moves us  out of the as Claire Wolfe puts it "akward stage"?

MechAg94

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Re: What would start the next civil war?
« Reply #1 on: July 30, 2021, 09:24:51 AM »

I am not sure a single thing could do it.  I think it would take a group of bad things happening.  Most people still have comfortable lives even if they have more anxiety.  It will take a lot to get them to risk that.
 
Eventually, one of these politicians is going to be arrogant enough to try to become a dictator in fact rather than behind the scenes and/or elections will become a complete joke.  When things like that become reality, the type of arrogant leadership that will bring will lead to many events that should get everyone's attention. 
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Fly320s

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Re: What would start the next civil war?
« Reply #2 on: July 30, 2021, 09:50:11 AM »

These are my trigger points:

- Obvious election fraud.  Last year doesn't meet the mark.
- Asset seizures in the name of fairness/redistribution/taxes.  If the IRS seized my 401k that would push me over the edge.
- Any of the various forms of dictatorship

Still, I don't think there would be a full-on civil war.  A guerilla war is more likely.
Islamic sex dolls.  Do they blow themselves up?

WLJ

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Re: What would start the next civil war?
« Reply #3 on: July 30, 2021, 09:59:21 AM »

. He believes we are are too comfortable in the US and will never get to an active rebellion. Considering the path we are going down now, I couldnt think of anything that would get enough people mad enough to actually start something.

It might take less than many think. I remember how much chaos erupted when the food stamp system went down for a few hours. Not saying something like that would start a rebellion on it's own but it's a reminder of just how fragile many things we take for granted are and often all it takes is for one domino to fall to start the process.
« Last Edit: July 30, 2021, 11:11:36 AM by WLJ »
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WLJ

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Re: What would start the next civil war?
« Reply #4 on: July 30, 2021, 10:09:06 AM »

Didn't finish my train of thought above.

I think the left by it's very nature is much more reactionary than the right so something as simple as the food stamp system going down but this time instead of hours for days or even weeks could trigger mass protests which could in turn trigger far leftists to give it a go at an overthrow which in turn  finally trigger the right into doing something   
« Last Edit: July 30, 2021, 01:11:34 PM by WLJ »
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Pb

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Re: What would start the next civil war?
« Reply #5 on: July 30, 2021, 10:10:54 AM »

I don't think there will be a civil war in my lifetime.

The political divisions aren't as geographically obvious as they were for the last civil war.

And most obviously, a huge percentage of the people are dependent on federal spending.  There are large numbers of federal employees.   Consider all the old people on SS and Medicare.  I read that 80% of the income for the bottom 20% of the people comes from government transfer payments.  A lot of "middle class" people get a lot of transfer payments.

Are these people going to support anything to cut off the flow of free money?

The only there would be a civil war is if these transfer payments stopped, or were rendered insignificant by inflation.

WLJ

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Re: What would start the next civil war?
« Reply #6 on: July 30, 2021, 10:19:32 AM »

The political divisions aren't as geographically obvious as they were for the last civil war.

Don't use the ACW as you model, think English Civil War or maybe even the Russian Civil War. Or better yet the Balkans. The Left/dems have been trying their darnest to turn the US into the new Yugoslavia.

And most obviously, a huge percentage of the people are dependent on federal spending.

See my food stamp system crashing
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Brad Johnson

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Re: What would start the next civil war?
« Reply #7 on: July 30, 2021, 10:28:03 AM »

Still, I don't think there would be a full-on civil war.  A guerilla war is more likely.

QFT.

The Left is stupid, not crazy. Well, at least when it comes those in political and leadership roles (I'm intentionally breaking them away from the brain-dead leftist retards roaming around in general population). They talk a lot of smack but I think they are well aware of just how quickly their shaky pedestal would fall if they push too far. Sure, there are some standout idiots getting a lot of press and airtime who seem unwilling to admit the U.S. is anything but two coastlines. Most, though, understand that folks in Deplorable Land have most of the guns and ammo, and control pretty much all of the food, fuel, material items, and logistics. They're bright enough to know how quickly they'd lose should things devolve to a general shooting war.

If anything happens it will likely be in isolated pockets. How those incidents go will determine further actions.

Brad
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RoadKingLarry

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Re: What would start the next civil war?
« Reply #8 on: July 30, 2021, 10:40:42 AM »

That reminds me, I need to pick up a couple more rolls of barbed wire.
 =D
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MechAg94

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Re: What would start the next civil war?
« Reply #9 on: July 30, 2021, 10:52:37 AM »

QFT.

The Left is stupid, not crazy. Well, at least when it comes those in political and leadership roles (I'm intentionally breaking them away from the brain-dead leftist retards roaming around in general population). They talk a lot of smack but I think they are well aware of just how quickly their shaky pedestal would fall if they push too far. Sure, there are some standout idiots getting a lot of press and airtime who seem unwilling to admit the U.S. is anything but two coastlines. Most, though, understand that folks in Deplorable Land have most of the guns and ammo, and control pretty much all of the food, fuel, material items, and logistics. They're bright enough to know how quickly they'd lose should things devolve to a general shooting war.

If anything happens it will likely be in isolated pockets. How those incidents go will determine further actions.

Brad
I was thinking it would start with the Feds pushing hard enough some states start seriously looking at breaking away, but even that is just a beginning, not shots fired.

Deploying the Army to enforce federal law would be an interesting trigger.  Hard to say.  (See thread about Australian Army).
It is much more important to kill bad bills than to pass good ones.  ― Calvin Coolidge

MechAg94

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Re: What would start the next civil war?
« Reply #10 on: July 30, 2021, 10:55:28 AM »

These are my trigger points:

- Obvious election fraud.  Last year doesn't meet the mark.
- Asset seizures in the name of fairness/redistribution/taxes.  If the IRS seized my 401k that would push me over the edge.
- Any of the various forms of dictatorship

Still, I don't think there would be a full-on civil war.  A guerilla war is more likely.
I don't know if Dems would go for seizing 401K money.  Someone would have to point out where that money is invested and how much of a hit that would be to the economy if it started getting drained.  Plus, I am sure someone is using that 401K investment as a form of a control and influence over big corporations.
It is much more important to kill bad bills than to pass good ones.  ― Calvin Coolidge

WLJ

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Re: What would start the next civil war?
« Reply #11 on: July 30, 2021, 11:07:56 AM »

I don't know if Dems would go for seizing 401K money.  Someone would have to point out where that money is invested and how much of a hit that would be to the economy if it started getting drained.  Plus, I am sure someone is using that 401K investment as a form of a control and influence over big corporations.

With the old guard, Pelosi, Schumer, etc.., I would agree. The new guard, AOC and gang, would seize it in a heartbeat.
"Sometimes I think the surest sign that intelligent life exists elsewhere in the universe is that none of it has tried to contact us".
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peteinct

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Re: What would start the next civil war?
« Reply #12 on: July 30, 2021, 01:06:58 PM »

Thanks for the replies evryone. Its always interesting to hear other peoples thoughts. I hadnt thought about it from a non rightist point of view but sure if EBT and welfare stops things will be sporty in a very short time like WLJ said. I personally dont think that 401ks will be outright nationalized. Instead they will be nibbled to death by taxes or inflation or special fees or adjustments. It will be something about how only "the rich" or the "1%" or whatever word they use to justify their plunder have money saved. I also feel that the next civil war model will be more like the disintegration of yugoslavia or the fall of the roman republic than our first civil war.
 A civil war would be awful. We have a governing class that has openly talked about nuking its own citizens. We have lots of small arms in circulation and a large amount of past and present soldiers. We have a history when push comes to shove of doing what it takes to win. Shermans march through georgia, fire bombing dresden and tokyo and finally nuking hiroshima.  Our government seems too insulated from reality or too incompetant to stop turning up the heat too fast so the frog doesnt jump out of the pot.
 We live in a bannna republic now. Pete

230RN

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Re: What would start the next civil war?
« Reply #13 on: July 30, 2021, 01:22:12 PM »

Let's not forget about foreign intervention and overseas supply chains.

There will be other countries either standing by or actively participating in any open affray.

Most of the maritime commerce occurs on the coasts, which as far as I can tell would lean Lefty.  The gulf ports are easily blockaded.

And as far as I know, no "flyover" states have navies.

Our northern border is pretty porous*, and I can't see those Subjects of the Crown being too sympathetic to an open affray so good luck there.

All in all, an open affray would be a bootless and fruitless pursuit, despite there being a rifle behind every blade of grass.

Terry


* Much of the 5000 mile border is merely demarked by a mown line of grass, maintained by both countries, or things like a roadside ditch. 

Sample:



« Last Edit: July 30, 2021, 03:06:26 PM by 230RN »

PEfarmer

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Re: What would start the next civil war?
« Reply #14 on: July 30, 2021, 01:24:29 PM »

These are my trigger points:

- Obvious election fraud.  Last year doesn't meet the mark.
- Asset seizures in the name of fairness/redistribution/taxes.  If the IRS seized my 401k that would push me over the edge.
- Any of the various forms of dictatorship

Still, I don't think there would be a full-on civil war.  A guerilla war is more likely.

Look behind the curtain of the capital gains transfer tax upon death proposed in the "american families plan"/reconciliation bill  This rises to that level for me.  The .gov between state and fed would take literally greater than half of my family's farm when my folks pass.  And that's before you even start talking about the estate tax.  This leads to forced liquidation.  Who buys?  Either big Ag, or if another current proposal gets legs, "socially disadvantaged" farmers using money stolen from me in taxes and given to them to buy my farm.  That may indeed be my rubicon.

Perd Hapley

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Re: What would start the next civil war?
« Reply #15 on: July 30, 2021, 01:37:37 PM »

Still, I don't think there would be a full-on civil war.  A guerilla war is more likely.

A guerilla civil war, then.
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just Warren

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Re: What would start the next civil war?
« Reply #16 on: July 30, 2021, 02:38:32 PM »

This could  be asked as: "What could be the driving force behind a categorical shift in how our society functions?"

It need not be civil war or insurrections or riots. 

There need not be any violence.

What if people just stopped showing up for work?

Stopped paying taxes?

Stopped paying on their debts?

Stopped paying rent?

What if, instead of working to feed themselves, people started growing their own food?

What if, instead of relying on an endless stream of consumer products, people used what they had, repairing as needed?

And what if that caused the entire system of global procurement of products to cease?

And as a result of all that our society went from outwardly looking, cosmopolitan, globally focused to inwardly looking, rural or semi-rural and locally focused?

What might be the factors that cause that chain of events?

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cordex

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Re: What would start the next civil war?
« Reply #17 on: July 30, 2021, 02:48:22 PM »

Look behind the curtain of the capital gains transfer tax upon death proposed in the "american families plan"/reconciliation bill  This rises to that level for me.  The .gov between state and fed would take literally greater than half of my family's farm when my folks pass.  And that's before you even start talking about the estate tax.  This leads to forced liquidation.  Who buys?  Either big Ag, or if another current proposal gets legs, "socially disadvantaged" farmers using money stolen from me in taxes and given to them to buy my farm.  That may indeed be my rubicon.
I thought most farms had started to get transferred into trusts for just this reason ... have you explored that?

PEfarmer

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Re: What would start the next civil war?
« Reply #18 on: July 30, 2021, 03:15:27 PM »

I thought most farms had started to get transferred into trusts for just this reason ... have you explored that?

Yes, and we had a trust in place to deal with the former/current estate tax paradigm.  Everything I've read, including by some very influential CPAs, says this will be essentially unavoidable.  There is probably going to be a 15 year deferral if the farm continues to be operated by family, but it's just a deferral, and interest applies, and the .gov will attach a lien, which will make traditional financing like operating lines unavailable due to collateral tie-up.  This is an existential threat more serious than any legislation I've seen proposed in the last several decades.  Looking at it another way, farm families (including ours) typically work long hours, often 80-100 hour weeks for *expletive deleted*it wages partly because there's a big reward at the end in that the farm is then "yours" to pass on to your own children.  If that deal changes to working those hours for those wages so .gov can take half to give to worthless lay-about shithead leaches, well, the calculus changes too.  My read on this is that the democrat party despises generational wealth, and this is a dagger to the heart of it.

Lennyjoe

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Re: What would start the next civil war?
« Reply #19 on: July 30, 2021, 05:42:35 PM »

Like others, Im not sure a civil war but one where civil unrest turns ugly. 

So many people seem to rely on government funding to survive.  Once the government stops paying social programs, funding those on welfare, or just plain stops giving handouts, sh*t will hit the fan.  Those that rely on those government dollars will rise up and start taking what they think is entitled and the gorilla war will ensue

Ben

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Re: What would start the next civil war?
« Reply #20 on: July 30, 2021, 05:58:54 PM »

No civil war in the generic sense, I think. As alluded to above, too many people would have to give up an easy life of Amazon and Netflix and pizza delivery, including, if I'm honest with myself, armchair warriors like me. I like to think I would take up arms, but I can't honestly say what would move me from the armchair to the trenches, as it were. The Three Percenters took their name for a reason.  =)

On the other hand, I can certainly see a "resistance" forming. Heck, many people, including me, do that now. I moved to where I am to lay low, do pretty much what I want, and avoid the government. I guess you could call it the Alliance and the Independents - the core planets and the outer planets. Don't wanna get pinched by the feds? Don't call the feds. Of course that only works if the feds stay in the core. I live in the Redoubt, so hopefully have some time before the authoritarians make life overly difficult by taking notice of this part of flyover country.

I could maybe see some states at least attempting to assert state rights and tell the feds to *expletive deleted*ck off. Texas seems to be doing a good bit of that. Again, not really civil war, but resistance of a sort, and maybe more people will be forced to migrate from their home states to states more closely aligned with their beliefs, again, perhaps only to gain some time.

I'll agree with posts up above that if you are looking to see where civil war of a sort starts, or at least ongoing domestic terrorism, look no further than the demographics that might lose welfare, EBT, free phones, etc. The Republicans don't have the balls to do anything more than slightly reduce those handouts, and the dems only want to increase them, but if some calamity "X" were to happen that cut off those payments? That right there will be your violent uprising against the government, and while I said I was unsure what might cause me to take up arms against the government, I can tell you that I would for sure take up arms to fight that crowd, without hesitation. I would see it as no different than defending myself against home invaders.


EDIT: Speaking of "why only 3%?", just take a look at the fallout from 06JAN. While yes, they did arrest some knuckleheads that destroyed property, they also did mass arrests of people, including whole families, who did nothing more than show up on the Capitol grounds. Plus jail with no bail, warrantless searches, people who had "friends and family" turn them into the feds, ad nauseum. I'm betting that whole business has a lot of people re-evaluating how, when, and where they might even speak against the government, let alone do something physical.
« Last Edit: July 30, 2021, 06:23:13 PM by Ben »
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Re: What would start the next civil war?
« Reply #21 on: July 30, 2021, 08:15:48 PM »

First stage will be like a worse version of the current state of the west. Bad time to drive slow through town if you can be identified as a federal employee. Any federal employee.
AKA Navy Joe   

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Cliffh

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Re: What would start the next civil war?
« Reply #22 on: July 30, 2021, 08:57:51 PM »

.... I'm betting that whole business has a lot of people re-evaluating how, when, and where they might even speak against the government, let alone do something physical.

To that; usually there isn't any political talk around work.  Folks pretty much keep their views to themselves.  After the announcement that we're now going to be required to wear masks again - some got vaxxed just to not have to wear one - I was approached be numerous fellow workers expressing their displeasure with the current .gov.  Negative emotions are starting to get stirred up.

It seems to me that we're already starting down the guerilla civil war path.  Looking at Seattle and others this last year, sure seems as if the opening salvos have been fired.  My question is will they* calm down or accelerate their agendas?  If they don't back off soon, there may be more violence than they're expecting.   

*They being those who are pushing the violence, i.e. BLM, Antifa, some politicians, etc.

charby

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Re: What would start the next civil war?
« Reply #23 on: July 30, 2021, 09:03:54 PM »

Not happening, there isn't a large enough group willing to risk everything to possibly lose everything.
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RoadKingLarry

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Re: What would start the next civil war?
« Reply #24 on: July 30, 2021, 09:50:22 PM »

Not happening, there isn't a large enough group willing to risk everything to possibly lose everything.

I think it becomes increasingly likely that we could see more loner retaliation/vengeance motivated attacks ala Marvin Heemyer.
When the government takes away everything a person has to live for, fear of dieing becomes less of a deterrent.
If ye love wealth better than liberty, the tranquility of servitude better than the animating contest of freedom, go home from us in peace. We ask not your counsels or your arms. Crouch down and lick the hands which feed you. May your chains set lightly upon you, and may posterity forget that you were our countrymen.

Samuel Adams
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