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Author Topic: Afghanistan  (Read 9599 times)

Ben

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Afghanistan
« on: August 12, 2021, 03:33:58 PM »

Sounds like Afghanistan will be back under Taliban rule in record time.

I wouldn't care much, other than the US lives, time, and money spent there. Especially the lives. This fast of a Taliban takeover is just about spitting on the graves of US  servicemembers who died there. Not to mention all those who came back minus body parts.
"I'm a foolish old man that has been drawn into a wild goose chase by a harpy in trousers and a nincompoop."

French G.

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Re: Afghanistan
« Reply #1 on: August 12, 2021, 03:42:54 PM »

Any future diplomacy needs to come from Whiteman AFB and it needs to be bright.
AKA Navy Joe   

I'm so contrarian that I didn't respond to the thread.

WLJ

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Re: Afghanistan
« Reply #2 on: August 12, 2021, 04:35:11 PM »

Any future diplomacy needs to come from Whiteman AFB and it needs to be bright.

Special delivery from the Instant Sunrise Company
“Think of how stupid the average person is, and realize half of them are stupider than that.”
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Jim147

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Re: Afghanistan
« Reply #3 on: August 12, 2021, 04:50:16 PM »

They rattle my light when they fly over every day but it's a lovely sound.
Sometimes we carry more weight then we owe.
And sometimes goes on and on and on.

BAH-WEEP-GRAAAGHNAH WHEEP NI-NI BONG

Phyphor

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Re: Afghanistan
« Reply #4 on: August 12, 2021, 05:17:09 PM »

Special delivery from the Instant Sunrise Company

Founder J. Robert Oppenheimer.

May his light shine upon the Taliban.
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WLJ

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Re: Afghanistan
« Reply #5 on: August 12, 2021, 05:28:08 PM »

Afghanistan has been a tribal cluster *expletive deleted*ck for thousands of years. Did they actually think that was going to change in a few years? Either stay the *expletive deleted*ck out of Afghanistan and let them be or have the balls to turn the place into *expletive deleted*ing glass, there is no middle option.

sorry for the language but this whole thing ***** me off to no end
« Last Edit: August 12, 2021, 09:38:43 PM by WLJ »
“Think of how stupid the average person is, and realize half of them are stupider than that.”
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T.O.M.

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Re: Afghanistan
« Reply #6 on: August 12, 2021, 07:50:52 PM »

What bothers me most is that we (the US) made it a priority to make sure that the females in the 'stan got proper educations and equal rights.  Seems to me that in the end all we did was put bullseyes on them, especially the young females that can now do God forsaken things like read...

No, I'm not mtnbkr.  ;)

a.k.a. "our resident Legal Smeagol."...thanks BryanP
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WLJ

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Re: Afghanistan
« Reply #7 on: August 12, 2021, 08:00:10 PM »

Uhhh isn't that what they want?   :facepalm:

European Union threatens Taliban with ‘isolation’ if it seizes power in Afghanistan
https://twitchy.com/brettt-3136/2021/08/12/european-union-threatens-taliban-with-isolation-if-it-seizes-power-in-afghanistan/
“Think of how stupid the average person is, and realize half of them are stupider than that.”
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Ron

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Re: Afghanistan
« Reply #8 on: August 12, 2021, 08:49:31 PM »

Our policy there was pretty insane from the get go.

There is suckage to go around multiple times and still have mountains of suckage left over.

The wish not to believe can influence as strongly as the wish to believe.

Who can escape their own cognitive biases?

Viking

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Re: Afghanistan
« Reply #9 on: August 12, 2021, 09:04:21 PM »

Uhhh isn't that what they want?   :facepalm:

European Union threatens Taliban with ‘isolation’ if it seizes power in Afghanistan
https://twitchy.com/brettt-3136/2021/08/12/european-union-threatens-taliban-with-isolation-if-it-seizes-power-in-afghanistan/
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MechAg94

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Re: Afghanistan
« Reply #10 on: August 12, 2021, 09:31:48 PM »

Our policy there was pretty insane from the get go.

There is suckage to go around multiple times and still have mountains of suckage left over.
Agreed.  Our occupation of Afghanistan stopped mattering many years ago.  There is no win/lose here.  We just need to stop wasting lives and money occupying that place for no good reason. 
“It is much more important to kill bad bills than to pass good ones.”  ― Calvin Coolidge

Bogie

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Re: Afghanistan
« Reply #11 on: August 12, 2021, 09:51:45 PM »

The bottom line as I see it...
 
No insurgency against an occupying power is going to trust us from now on. First we did that in Vietnam... And a generation later, in the 'Stan.
Blog under construction

Lennyjoe

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Re: Afghanistan
« Reply #12 on: August 12, 2021, 09:58:46 PM »

Was just a waiting game for the Taliban.  History shows that they just need to be patient and wait us out.

Bottom line, it’s a shithole and you’d never be successful in teaching them to do anything different they have been doing for hundreds of years.

No love lost for the fall of Afghanistan here, except for the lives lost trying to bring them up to the 21 st century.

Viking

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Re: Afghanistan
« Reply #13 on: August 12, 2021, 10:03:56 PM »

Was just a waiting game for the Taliban.  History shows that they just need to be patient and wait us out.

Bottom line, it’s a shithole and you’d never be successful in teaching them to do anything different they have been doing for hundreds of years.

No love lost for the fall of Afghanistan here, except for the lives lost trying to bring them up to the 21 st century.
"You've got the watches, we've got the time".
“The modern world will not be punished. It is the punishment.” — Nicolás Gómez Dávila

MechAg94

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Re: Afghanistan
« Reply #14 on: August 12, 2021, 11:09:22 PM »

The bottom line as I see it...
 
No insurgency against an occupying power is going to trust us from now on. First we did that in Vietnam... And a generation later, in the 'Stan.
They had 20 years to figure out how to stand up on their own.  I don't see another 5 or 20 years making any difference. 
“It is much more important to kill bad bills than to pass good ones.”  ― Calvin Coolidge

grampster

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Re: Afghanistan
« Reply #15 on: August 13, 2021, 08:50:58 AM »

^^^^This.  How fast "the lesson of Vietnam" was ignored and the American people shrugged and went about their day.
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TommyGunn

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Re: Afghanistan
« Reply #16 on: August 13, 2021, 10:21:02 AM »

^^^^This.  How fast "the lesson of Vietnam" was ignored and the American people shrugged and went about their day.
  The South Vietnamese fared pretty well until our kongress stopped funding their efforts.    I don't know why the Afghan military,  which I think is numerically superior to the Taliban forces,  collapse faster than the 7th Cavalry at the Little Bighorn.    Something in their culture ? ? ? ? Making them unwilling or unable to fight against fellow Afghans, in spite of extreme religious ideologies?  =|   

The Taliban will  ascend and al qaeda will reconstitute and yet again, will try to attack us.   I'd guess they'll go to Mexico and sneak - - - - er, walk across the border.... :mad: [popcorn] :facepalm:
MOLON LABE   "Through ignorance of what is good and what is bad, the life of men is greatly perplexed." ~~ Cicero

Ben

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Re: Afghanistan
« Reply #17 on: August 13, 2021, 10:28:18 AM »

  I don't know why the Afghan military,  which I think is numerically superior to the Taliban forces,  collapse faster than the 7th Cavalry at the Little Bighorn.    Something in their culture ? ? ? ? Making them unwilling or unable to fight against fellow Afghans, in spite of extreme religious ideologies?  =|   

I recall that Dogmush, and others who have been in the ME, had some salient comments regarding the Afghan military, their training, and their, I guess "cultural ineptitude" is as good a phrase as any, making many or most of them an ineffective force.
"I'm a foolish old man that has been drawn into a wild goose chase by a harpy in trousers and a nincompoop."

TommyGunn

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Re: Afghanistan
« Reply #18 on: August 13, 2021, 10:33:15 AM »

I hope Dogmush will chime in and enlighten me, despite it perhaps being repetitive for him.

My brother in law is an ex Army Ranger,  but  mustered out 30 years ago due to a serious battlefield injury and of course was never in Afghanistan.  He has his opinions on the "forever wars" but  I can't say he knows just what gives with the Afghan defense forces ....
MOLON LABE   "Through ignorance of what is good and what is bad, the life of men is greatly perplexed." ~~ Cicero

Ben

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Re: Afghanistan
« Reply #19 on: August 13, 2021, 10:37:49 AM »

I recall some "basic training" videos being posted here showing less than cohesiveness by the trainees. Don't know if that was one off, or common. There are certainly videos available via search showing them to at least be adequate. At least in training, which might not port over to door kicking.
"I'm a foolish old man that has been drawn into a wild goose chase by a harpy in trousers and a nincompoop."

MechAg94

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Re: Afghanistan
« Reply #20 on: August 13, 2021, 11:24:16 AM »

I had heard that we have been in talks with the Taliban.  I am curious if we are making any deals with them about what happens after we leave.  (like them not getting involved in international terrorism)
“It is much more important to kill bad bills than to pass good ones.”  ― Calvin Coolidge

RocketMan

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Re: Afghanistan
« Reply #21 on: August 13, 2021, 11:53:56 AM »

I had heard that we have been in talks with the Taliban.  I am curious if we are making any deals with them about what happens after we leave.  (like them not getting involved in international terrorism)

It's looking like the negotiations with the Taliban were a waste of time, given that they are overrunning Afghanistan at the moment.
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dogmush

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Re: Afghanistan
« Reply #22 on: August 13, 2021, 12:31:17 PM »

It's complicated, and while I have some experience in the AO, I don't pretend I'm an expert on Pashtun culture.  I have worked with the Afghan National Army (ANA) a bit.  So here's a brief overview.  I'll give you the highpoints so you can at least see why none of the US military is particularly surprised.

1.  A lot of the ANA IS the Taliban.  It's not so much the ANA is folding, as some of them are just changing their uniforms and continuing.  Many of the ANA had been with the Taliban during the 90's and their fathers had been with the Mujahideen during the 80's.  When we invaded in 2001, and ramped up in 2002 these folks saw the writing on the wall, and left the Taliban to the real screaming beards and tried to carve out a place with some power in the new government.  Now that the new government is collapsing they are ditching the ANA and trying to carve out a place with some power in the new government.  This flexibility with allegiances is one of the reasons we had so much issue with green on blue attacks while we were there.  If a dude is only sorta behind the ANA, and you blow up his third cousin's produce stand, he may very well try to take some US forces out in retaliation.

2. Tribalism.  This is a big one. It's hard to fully understand how the entire Pashtun culture revolves around your tribe, and your tribe's fortunes.  Americans think of them selves as American, even Antifa sees themselves as saving America.  There isn't really an Afghan national Identity until an outside force attacks, and even then it's much weaker than most westerners can really fathom.  Young men join the ANA because their tribe needs them to, or they need to steal equipment or get training for their tribe, or to get access to a different tribe to settle a score over three dead goat from 1982.  No one joins the ANA to protect "Afghanistan".  So if you are Karlanri from the southeast, and happen to be with the ANA outside Lashkargah (Helmond province) and the Taliban are rolling up it's very, very likely you'll see that as a Durrani problem and just go home.  It's also likely that if you are careful and pick the right part of the Taliban lines to cross, your cousin will let you take your weapon and go home.  Even the idea that there IS an "Afghan National Army" is misleading, because it implies more cohesiveness than really exists.  For that matter "Taliban forces" implies more cohesiveness than really exists.  There's a small group of screaming beards and a nucleus of folks running a Jihad, and a bunch of other folks that are willing to be steered (a little) in exchange for weapons, money, and the promise of local control when the dust settles.

3. No one likes the Afghani government.  We didn't really understand the Pashtun when we started (I would argue that State still doesn't) so when we thought we were setting up a more stable, democratic(ish) government what we actually did is enable one set of corrupt tribal leaders to pick a small group of friends and run roughshod over their rivals, with NATO acting as hired muscle.  Like suddenly rich corrupt officials the world over they got a little out of hand with their grift and corruption, even by southwest Asia standards, and made some enemies.  Even among the folks that aren't enemies, per sae, much of what the central government does is distasteful and embarrassing to the tribes.  One is not likely to risk a whole lot for a government they don't really like anyway.

4. The screaming beards and their true believers are brutal as *expletive deleted*ck.  From a purely practical standpoint if a Taliban milita rolls up to your village, and you slap burkas on your women, thanks them for rescuing you from the imperialist's, and give them half your crops and 20 or 30 third cousins to join the milita, they will probably roll on down the road.  If you fight, they will rape and kidnap the women, hang the elders, draft all the boys for suicide missions, burn the village to the ground and take all the crops.  With it being clear the US won't help them, why would they fight?

5. Inshallah. The ANA is not a professional fighting force (even when they decide to stay and fight).  Americans have this idea that the army is a group of people that make warfighting and winning their profession, and work to master that profession.  Western Militaries all tend to do that.  We take the "warrior" mentality and hone that.  We spend MASSIVE amounts of money to let huge armies sit around and just get better at fighting for decades between wars, or for that matter during wars.  The US Army in particular is the best in the world at multi domain conflict because we spend a lot of time and effort at being such.  While the Warrior archetype exists in the mideast, it's not our Spartan derived professional soldier.  It's more of a lone warrior with God's favor type thing.  (and I'm still not really conveying the archetype well). 
You fight your hardest, and if you win, it was God's will, and if you lose, that was also God's will.  Better equipment and tactics won't help you win if it's God's will you lose, and if it's his will you win, you will even if you use rocks.  So why bother with all the hard work of endless training, and discipline.  In fact, if you do bother with all that hard work, it's like you don't trust God to have you prevail.  That lack of trust in his will is likely to turn him against you and yours.  You fight, someone wins, Inshallah.  Who are you to try and change the ordained outcome by being a better fighter?
Even that is an oversimplification, but the attributes that the Western militaries think make for a good soldier and army are actively avoided by most islamic armies.


There's more levels to the Afghan cultural onion, and I'm sure there's parts I still don't fully grok, but those are kinda the main themes driving why the Taliban forces are not having any real issue with the ANA, despite the ANA having numbers and billions of dollars in US hardware.

I'm wondering if we shouldn't have just colonized the place for real instead of half assing it.  I'm sure we'll be back in my lifetime, if not in my Army career, although I heard rumblings that Putin would impose order if he needed to to secure the pipeline networks through the Caspian Sea, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan.  The Russians are welcome to take their shot for a decade or so.

dogmush

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Re: Afghanistan
« Reply #23 on: August 13, 2021, 12:32:27 PM »

It's looking like the negotiations with the Taliban were a waste of time, given that they are overrunning Afghanistan at the moment.

The only deals I'm aware of with the Taliban were of the "We're getting ready to leave, let's have a cease-fire so we can pack up and skeddadle" variety.  Which they seem to have honored.

MillCreek

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Re: Afghanistan
« Reply #24 on: August 13, 2021, 12:37:37 PM »

^^^Dogmush, I like to learn something every day, and I learned many interesting things from your post.
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Quote from: Angel Eyes on August 09, 2018, 01:56:15 AM
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