Author Topic: Let's Go Brandon!  (Read 18212 times)

zxcvbob

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Re: Let's Go Brandon!
« Reply #200 on: November 10, 2021, 06:00:17 PM »
Oh, boy . . .  :facepalm:

Re-read the first line of my post - I didn't attempt to assess the totality of the health of the supply chain, I very specifically wrote  ". . . the supply chain for ammunition may not be broken - but it's definitely bent."

That's pretty far short of an "END TIMES" pronouncement, so calm down and don't hyperventilate.

Shhh!  He's having fun hyperventilating, don't ruin it.  :rofl:
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Re: Let's Go Brandon!
« Reply #201 on: November 10, 2021, 06:55:23 PM »
That last ammo shortage... I think what really extended it was all the old farts who would hit their local Wally World at opening and buy everything they could, and then come back the next day, and do it again... Then that weekend, they'd set up a table at a gun show...
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Cliffh

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Re: Let's Go Brandon!
« Reply #202 on: November 10, 2021, 07:07:50 PM »
Hell, there was a guy from the LGS that would buy up all of WMs stock, then sell at his store - at a significant markup of course.

The main reason they went to a three box limit per customer per day.

cordex

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Re: Let's Go Brandon!
« Reply #203 on: November 10, 2021, 07:13:48 PM »
Another difference between other ammo shortages and now:
Before when a company bumped up the price on ammo significantly, people jumped on them for gouging. Now we are just grateful to be able to get the ammo.

French G.

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Re: Let's Go Brandon!
« Reply #204 on: November 10, 2021, 07:21:30 PM »
One of local farm and ranch stores just opened a new location in the next town over. Stopped in today while I was out running errands just to see the layout. The ammo shelf was fairly well stocked compared to recent times. 5 box limit. They had 5 boxes of Winchester 525 rd bulk .22 Lr. $39.95 a box, I bought 1. Also grabbed a 20 rd box of Aguila 12 Ga. Minishell slugs. I'm not optimistic but I'll see if they'll feed through my 870. If not I've got a single barrel 12 gauge to feed them to. First time I've seen the Minishells or bulk .22 Lr in the wild in quite a while.

The minishells will not work too hot, they like to flip over in the 870. Port feed them or the single shot. My local merchant's price for the .22 was for a 50rd box. He wanted $35 for 100 .22 short.  I felt bad, I sold a brick at a gunshow for $50 which is way too much. Turned around the next day at walmart and got two for the same money.
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French G.

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Re: Let's Go Brandon!
« Reply #205 on: November 10, 2021, 07:22:09 PM »
AKA Navy Joe   

I'm so contrarian that I didn't respond to the thread.

RoadKingLarry

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Re: Let's Go Brandon!
« Reply #206 on: November 10, 2021, 07:49:46 PM »
The minishells will not work too hot, they like to flip over in the 870. Port feed them or the single shot. My local merchant's price for the .22 was for a 50rd box. He wanted $35 for 100 .22 short.  I felt bad, I sold a brick at a gunshow for $50 which is way too much. Turned around the next day at walmart and got two for the same money.

Wasn't really too worried about feeding in the 870 since I've got the single shot. But, I will at least try. I really need a SXS coach gun though.  [ar15]
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DustinD

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Re: Let's Go Brandon!
« Reply #207 on: November 10, 2021, 09:09:44 PM »
Quote from: MSNBC
One tweet by Tristan Snell said the chant is the MAGA equivalent of “Sieg Heil.” To this I say: Calm the hell down; that’s an insult to Nazis. And furthermore, Biden doesn’t have the gall to steamroll these would-be Nazis like Joseph Stalin’s army did in Berlin.
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MikeB

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Re: Let's Go Brandon!
« Reply #208 on: November 10, 2021, 11:22:37 PM »
Ammo prices are without a doubt coming down. I've found several calibers for much better prices than six months ago, if not even two years ago. Some from  EU and some from US. Just for 9mm examples.

Ammo Shop Online

https://www.ammoshoponline.com/shop/caliber/handgun/9mm-luger/new-product-promotion-30-off-9mm-luger-brass-fmj-115-gr-geco-qty-50-free-shipping-insurance-on-orders-over-200/

LAX Ammo

https://www.laxammo.com/lax-factory-new/handgun-new/9-mm-new/lax-ammunition-factory-new-9-mm-115-gr-500-rds-w-free-ammo-can-detail

While not the best pricing as compared to several years ago, much better than 6 months or a year ago at least. I have bought and fired several hundred if not even a thousand or more rounds of both examples without any issues.

zahc

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Re: Let's Go Brandon!
« Reply #209 on: November 10, 2021, 11:44:52 PM »
We are obviously seeing price inflation in many sectors...but by no means all sectors. Some things are cheaper or the same. Of course we notice the ones that go up but I agree that ammo being expensive is not evidence of inflation. It's just evidence of ammo being expensive. This price volatility is indicative of general economic shakeup.

Layered on top of that, we are seeing the thin end of future inflation as we watch current spending and fiscal policy, which mathematically will inevitably cause future inflation. The markets can+will price that in now because they aren't stupid, but here's the problem...

If we are seeing current or future inflation, it's actually stagflation. Because if it were real inflation, you wouldn't be able to get a 30yr mortgage for 3%. They would be asking for more interest than that, because they would know now that money will be worth less in 30 years. But we see banks willing to loan at 3% right now which means they expect the dollar to remain strong in the future, meanwhile asset prices themselves are steadily climbing, I'm pretty sure this is classic stagflation. I wish I were smart enough to fully understand it. I'm pretty sure it means, as always, that Wall Street is fleecing the middle class.
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DustinD

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Re: Let's Go Brandon!
« Reply #210 on: November 10, 2021, 11:46:22 PM »
https://ammopricesnow.com/ is showing very slow and steady progress. Availability keeps improving and hopefully once it gets a bit better prices will march down faster.
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Ben

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Re: Let's Go Brandon!
« Reply #211 on: November 11, 2021, 07:09:54 AM »
If we are seeing current or future inflation, it's actually stagflation. Because if it were real inflation, you wouldn't be able to get a 30yr mortgage for 3%. They would be asking for more interest than that, because they would know now that money will be worth less in 30 years. But we see banks willing to loan at 3% right now which means they expect the dollar to remain strong in the future, meanwhile asset prices themselves are steadily climbing, I'm pretty sure this is classic stagflation. I wish I were smart enough to fully understand it. I'm pretty sure it means, as always, that Wall Street is fleecing the middle class.

This is a big one. I saw an analysis a couple of days ago that everything going on with our economy right now (outside of the covid shortage stuff) is identical to the late 70's - early 80's EXCEPT interest rates.

I was there during the days of the 14% (and higher) mortgage, along with 10% CDs. There is simply something wrong with the current situation being the opposite of that. Obviously, people who can get a 3% mortgage are really happy about that, but it shouldn't be a thing, IMO.

In a healthy economy, we should be seeing 5-8% mortgage interest rates. I mean, would you want to loan out your money at less than that? People should also be able to get 4-6% interest on CDs and such, not 1% (or less - the interest on one of my money markets right now is .20%). We have a situation where the only place you can really make money right now (or just protect it from shrinking via inflation) is either in an inflated stock market that just keeps going up, or in real estate that is also crazily inflated. When either or both of those balloons pop, it is not going to be pretty.
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HankB

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Re: Let's Go Brandon!
« Reply #212 on: November 11, 2021, 07:21:45 AM »
I remember CD and T-bill rates in the low to mid teens. When I lived in MN I bought T-bills directly from the Federal Reserve Bank as interest on them was exempt from STATE income tax - the extra quarter percent banks paid didn't make up for state taxes.

Right now, interest rates are being kept artificially low by the feds at least in part because of the magnitude of our national debt.

Try figuring the cost difference to the government of paying 0.2% interest rates for a short term (< 1 year) treasury security vs. 6% interest rates when you've got tens of trillions of dollars in debt. Even 20 year notes right now are only paying around 2%.
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Ben

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Re: Let's Go Brandon!
« Reply #213 on: November 11, 2021, 07:25:45 AM »
Right now, interest rates are being kept artificially low by the feds at least in part because of the magnitude of our national debt.

And I don't see a way to get the fed.gov to change that when we have "build back better" and other bullshit that does nothing but require more "money" to be manufactured while we sink deeper and deeper into debt.
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K Frame

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Re: Let's Go Brandon!
« Reply #214 on: November 11, 2021, 07:55:45 AM »
So in the Obama era there was panic buying.  Now we have panic buying and added on to that is widespread unavailability of the necessary raw materials both domestically and imports, as well as the reduction of importation of finished goods through a ban on Russian ammo.  Sounds like a kind of significant difference to me. 

It's sort of like the difference between maxing the credit card and maxing the credit card the day you get fired.
There are a lot of raw materials stuck out there on boats with those luxury goods you were talking about earlier, aren't there?


Did I ever say that this time isn't different? No, I didn't. Not sure where you came up that concept.

What I did say is supplies of ammo and components contracted dramatically, and prices rose dramatically, during the Obama administration.

Just as they've done during Covid.

Not sure how that's unclear.

But the big difference this time is that ammo and component supplies are returning far more quickly than they did during the Obama years.

Part of that could simply be that the mouth breathing panic monkeys who overdosed on ammo still haven't burned through it all and didn't re-enter the buying frenzy, and that helped counter balance all of the new gun purchasers who came out of the wood work. Speculation on my part, though.



"There are a lot of raw materials stuck out there on boats with those luxury goods you were talking about earlier, aren't there?"

Probably there are some, but I suspect that the shipping situation of raw materials vs finished goods is SIGNIFICANTLY different.

Raw materials are generally shipped in bulk. Open hold, pour in stuff, close hold. Once off loaded at a port, most of that material is shipped via rail. It's not being pressured by California's new trucking rules and the general lack of truck drivers.

The ships we keep hearing about that are backed up outside of major ports? Most of those are Conex container ships. They ship finished goods, not raw materials. This video shows that fairly well. The video does show a couple of bulk goods ships -- one appears to be a grain carrier, another one an oiler.

https://www.cnn.com/videos/business/2021/10/06/shipping-backup-supply-line-california-ports-lah-newday-vpx.cnn
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K Frame

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Re: Let's Go Brandon!
« Reply #215 on: November 11, 2021, 07:57:11 AM »
Oh, boy . . .  :facepalm:

Re-read the first line of my post - I didn't attempt to assess the totality of the health of the supply chain, I very specifically wrote  ". . . the supply chain for ammunition may not be broken - but it's definitely bent."

That's pretty far short of an "END TIMES" pronouncement, so calm down and don't hyperventilate.



Sarcasm, Sheldon.
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K Frame

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Re: Let's Go Brandon!
« Reply #216 on: November 11, 2021, 07:58:07 AM »
The local slimy charlatan....errrr, I mean veteran owned business has a roadside ammo stand. For the low low price of $25 you too can own your very own box of .22 lr. By this new economy path I am about to become a millionaire.

During the worst of the Obama shortages I saw many a box of .22 LR for that much, and a lot more.
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K Frame

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Re: Let's Go Brandon!
« Reply #217 on: November 11, 2021, 08:00:35 AM »
Another difference between other ammo shortages and now:
Before when a company bumped up the price on ammo significantly, people jumped on them for gouging. Now we are just grateful to be able to get the ammo.


You're traveling in different circles, then. I've seen a LOT of people having absolute meltdowns over "price gouging" on ammo, components, and guns.
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K Frame

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Re: Let's Go Brandon!
« Reply #218 on: November 11, 2021, 08:04:28 AM »
"Ammo prices are without a doubt coming down. I've found several calibers for much better prices than six months ago, if not even two years ago. Some from  EU and some from US. Just for 9mm examples."

yep, I'm seeing ammo prices starting to fall back a bit, as well.

Oddly enough, what I didn't see this time around, but saw a lot during the Obama shortages, are people yelling "THIS IS THE NEW PRICE POINT, MAN! PRICES WILL NEVER, EVER COME DOWN AGAIN! THE AMMO COMPANIES FIGURE WE'LL PAY IT AND THEY'LL NEVER DROP PRICES! GET USED TO $5 FOR EACH PRIMER!"

I do dearly love a retarded mouth breathing panic monkey festival.
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K Frame

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Re: Let's Go Brandon!
« Reply #219 on: November 11, 2021, 08:36:40 AM »
This is a big one. I saw an analysis a couple of days ago that everything going on with our economy right now (outside of the covid shortage stuff) is identical to the late 70's - early 80's EXCEPT interest rates.

I was there during the days of the 14% (and higher) mortgage, along with 10% CDs. There is simply something wrong with the current situation being the opposite of that. Obviously, people who can get a 3% mortgage are really happy about that, but it shouldn't be a thing, IMO.

In a healthy economy, we should be seeing 5-8% mortgage interest rates. I mean, would you want to loan out your money at less than that? People should also be able to get 4-6% interest on CDs and such, not 1% (or less - the interest on one of my money markets right now is .20%). We have a situation where the only place you can really make money right now (or just protect it from shrinking via inflation) is either in an inflated stock market that just keeps going up, or in real estate that is also crazily inflated. When either or both of those balloons pop, it is not going to be pretty.


A friend and his family moved to the area where I grew up in 1981 or so. Their purchase mortgage on their house was in the 15% range.
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MechAg94

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Re: Let's Go Brandon!
« Reply #220 on: November 11, 2021, 09:03:15 AM »
The question is how much of the price increases are due to inflation and how much is due to supply disruptions from COVID rules. 
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K Frame

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Re: Let's Go Brandon!
« Reply #221 on: November 11, 2021, 09:15:17 AM »
The question is how much of the price increases are due to inflation and how much is due to supply disruptions from COVID rules. 

My gut?

The majority of the price increases we have seen to this point have been caused by supply issues and monkey panic buying, but we had been seeing some moderation of prices through summer as things began to calm down. Some prices were back down to their pre-Covid levels, other prices were falling from their Covid highs.

But my guess is we're seeing an end to falling prices as it's getting a lot clearer that inflation is here to stay and it's going to be a lot more grinding than anyone of Brandon's sycophants is willing to let on.

My personal inflation story...

A month ago I bought a 64 ounce bag of store-branded frozen blueberries for $10.79. I use them in my oatmeal. Love them.

Yesterday, the same 64 ounce bag from the same store? $12.99.

18 months ago they were $9.49 (IIRC) before they disappeared in the Covid mass buying panic.
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Ben

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Re: Let's Go Brandon!
« Reply #222 on: November 11, 2021, 09:29:11 AM »
Larry Summers has an interesting thesis regarding us possibly heading into "Japanization".

Quote
Secular stagnation is a period of little or no economic growth, while the term “Japanization” is often used by economists to describe long-term stagnation and deflation, typically accompanied by symptoms like high unemployment, real interest rates near zero, weak economic activity, and central bank stimulus, including quantitative easing.

“Japanization has been in the spotlight since the global financial crisis of 2008,” wrote Dino Lauria Ubatuba de Faria, CEO at Lince Investimentos, in a note. “The term Japanization refers to the economic conditions of Japan during the two lost decades, which resulted in both low growth and deflation.”

“Extremely low interest rates set the stage for leveraging and the perpetuation of zombie enterprises and the perpetuation of financial bubbles,” Summers said. “We’re seeing a lot of evidence of speculative risk. Extremely low and negative real interest rates are problematic.”

https://www.theepochtimes.com/larry-summers-blasts-woke-central-banking-warns-of-economic-stagnation-and-japanization_4098818.html
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K Frame

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Re: Let's Go Brandon!
« Reply #223 on: November 11, 2021, 09:36:00 AM »
He's not the only one who has been raising that spectre...
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Bogie

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Re: Let's Go Brandon!
« Reply #224 on: November 11, 2021, 10:17:31 AM »
We have a situation where the only place you can really make money right now (or just protect it from shrinking via inflation) is either in an inflated stock market that just keeps going up, or in real estate that is also crazily inflated. When either or both of those balloons pop, it is not going to be pretty.

There's another. Find a local small business, or someone who needs to be in business, and invest in tooling/space to operate that business... Or keep it in the family, and set kids or grandkids up...
 
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