A shooting war with the PRC in the future?

[MillCreek]

As I read the recent news about the PRC sending warplanes in the area of Taiwan, their naval buildup, constructing new bases on islands, etc., I wonder if we or someone else gets into a shooting war with the PRC in the next ten years.  And if we do, will it remain limited, or after the first carrier gets sunk or Taiwan is occupied, goes nuclear hot?

[Fly320s]

My bet is that the US and everyone else will let China keep Hong Kong and takeover Taiwan without doing anything more than sending China a sternly-worded letter.

[230RN]

You can't invade Taiwan.  There will be a blade of grass....

Um.... there will be a blade of grass...

Ahhh... everywhere you look?

I wonder if we should start making Liberator pistols again.

NIB + ammo in WWII, they were only $2.10 each.  That'd be about 30 bucks nowadays, not counting profit margin.

[MechAg94]

Do you think China is building up to a full on military invasion?  Or are they just trying to push for Taiwan to give in without a war?

[griz]

You can't invade Taiwan.  There will be a blade of grass....

Um.... there will be a blade of grass...

Ahhh... everywhere you look?

I wonder if we should start making Liberator pistols again.

NIB + ammo in WWII, they were only $2.10 each.  That'd be about 30 bucks nowadays, not counting profit margin.

If we get them made in China they'll only cost $11.25.

[Jim147]

But our strong, smart and very articulate leader just said he talked to pooh and they were in agreement that China would not invade.

[230RN]

Will that hold when Harris takes over?

The U.S. thinks in terms of later today, far east countries think in terms of decades.

[Ron]

What do the Taiwanese think about this I wonder?

How possible is it that Taiwanese opposition turns out to be another "Afghan Government" illusion?

China takes over and Taiwan adjusts and life goes on as before, except without the USA.

[Jim147]

I just read that deer leader and dear leader will hold a joint press conference soon. Should be a blast.

[Zardozimo Oprah Bannedalas]

I think it's just saber rattling to try and rally the Chinese populace for a fundamentally unpopular regime. I don't think there's any real intention of doing it, as it's too much risk and too little reward. There are some really valuable assets in Taiwan, but those can also be blown up rather easily. China's greatest military achievement as of late is what, shoving around some Indian troops in the Himalayas? Amphibious invasions are slightly more difficult.

[MechAg94]

Will that hold when Harris takes over?

The U.S. thinks in terms of later today, far east countries think in terms of decades.

There are a whole lot of impatient teenagers who plan ahead better than the US Govt. 

Personally, I don't think Asian countries are a whole lot better.  Everyone said the same things about Japan in the early 90's. 

[Lennyjoe]

My bet is that the US and everyone else will let China keep Hong Kong and takeover Taiwan without doing anything more than sending China a sternly-worded letter.

This ^^^

[Hawkmoon]

My bet is that the US and everyone else will let China keep Hong Kong and takeover Taiwan without doing anything more than sending China a sternly-worded letter.

I agree. We bailed out of our official support of Taiwan decades ago.

[RocketMan]

I think China will eventually invade and take Taiwan.  It's a matter of pride with them, Taiwan being the last holdout of the Nationalists since they lost the revolution in 1949.  They've rattled their swords over Taiwan for far too long to not eventually invade.  It would be a loss of face.
Given that China has recently been sending record numbers of aircraft into Taiwan's ADIZ, the invasion may come sooner rather than later.  Taiwan will put up an admirable fight, but there is no way that they can prevail against the PRC.
When the invasion occurs, the USA will of course read a strongly worded letter in the UN to show the Chinese our displeasure.

[HankB]

. . . When the invasion occurs, the USA will of course read a strongly worded letter in the UN to show the Chinese our displeasure.

Don't be too sure of that - our semi-senile Manchurian Candidate^* POTUS wouldn't want to annoy them too much with strong language, since they might respond somewhere between the time he puts a lid on his workday (right after lunch) and his 7:30 PM bed time.

Secretary of State Blinken might glare at them a bit as they deliver a harsh response.



^* - I don't believe Joe was brainwashed like the Manchurian Candidate - more likely, bribed or blackmailed.

[Ron]

I think China will assume control within this decade without bloodshed.

[WLJ]

I think China will assume control within this decade without bloodshed.

Then the bloodshed will commence

[Ron]

Then the bloodshed will commence

Once the bloodthirsty boomers are have retired from our government the American Empire can (hopefully) recede peacefully.



 

[RocketMan]

Bloodthirsty boomers.   

[Ron]

Bloodthirsty boomers.   

Our generation never met a military conflict they didn't support.

[Pb]

Taiwan should start arming themselves like Switzerland used to...

And we should sell them subs with nuclear weapons.

Then they can take care of themselves.

[RocketMan]

Blood thirsty neocons Our generation never met a military conflict they didn't support.

Fixed it for you.

[Nick1911]

China can do whatever it wants.  Frankly, the US can't afford a war with them.  We're far too dependent on them as a supplier for almost every good you can think of.  Also, they buy a substantial amount of our exports, and hold a substantial amount of US debt.

[RocketMan]

China can do whatever it wants.  Frankly, the US can't afford a war with them.  We're far too dependent on them as a supplier for almost every good you can think of.  Also, they buy a substantial amount of our exports, and hold a substantial amount of US debt.

Conversely, we are too large a market for them to upset.  If there were a shooting war, we'd stop buying stuff from them.
However, given their communist belief in a command economy, that may not even figure into their calculations all that much.
Also, if we were to start tossing rounds back and forth, the US debt they hold would likely be repudiated as soon as the first shot is fired.  Especially if they shoot first.
Hmmm...

[Jim147]

We have special forces and marines in country helping them train. Hope it goes better than Afghanistan.