A shooting war with the PRC in the future?

[WLJ]

This just in. The US says China can have Taiwan.
In other news a Hunter Biden painting sells for $1 billion, two hookers, and blow.

[Nick1911]

Conversely, we are too large a market for them to upset.  If there were a shooting war, we'd stop buying stuff from them.
However, given their communist belief in a command economy, that may not even figure into their calculations all that much.
Also, if we were to start tossing rounds back and forth, the US debt they hold would likely be repudiated as soon as the first shot is fired.  Especially if they shoot first.
Hmmm...

That's true, there's a lot of inter-dependency.  But, I believe that the Chinese economy is in a much better position to deal with a collapse of trade, and the communist government would be much more willing to sacrifice the suffering of their people in pursuit of their goals.

I suspect that if the CCP said, behind closed doors, to US leadership: "We're taking Taiwan.  If you do anything meaningful to resist that, we'll cut all imports and dump US held debt on the international market, for cheap." the US government would be quick to acquiesce.

[RocketMan]

We have special forces and marines in country helping them train. Hope it goes better than Afghanistan.

It probably will.  The Taiwanese have far more incentive and little in the way of cultural impediments to negatively impact the training.

[MechAg94]

Conversely, we are too large a market for them to upset.  If there were a shooting war, we'd stop buying stuff from them.
However, given their communist belief in a command economy, that may not even figure into their calculations all that much.
Also, if we were to start tossing rounds back and forth, the US debt they hold would likely be repudiated as soon as the first shot is fired.  Especially if they shoot first.
Hmmm...

I would miss Olight flashlight sales and cheap red dot sights from Primary Arms.  China likes having a good economy and a shooting war would tank a lot of their trade as well as raw materials shipments to China.  They aren't self sufficient on everything any more than we are. 

I don't know how well we would do in a shooting war with China, but I think it is a mistake to assume they are some sort of military masterminds.  They haven't fought a serious war in decades same as us.  If it was really hot, there would be a lot of lessons learned on both sides.

[RoadKingLarry]

Well, we just had an "incident" involving a submarine in the vicinity.  Maybe things have already gone hot but it's still "classified".

[Pb]

It probably will.  The Taiwanese have far more incentive and little in the way of cultural impediments to negatively impact the training.

From what I read, Taiwan doesn't seem to be taking its military seriously.

[MillCreek]

^^^Published just today (and behind a paywall), but here is a WSJ article about concerns over the ability of Taiwan's military:  https://www.wsj.com/articles/taiwan-military-readiness-china-threat-us-defense-11635174187?mod=hp_lead_pos5

[Angel Eyes]

From earlier this month:

https://www.19fortyfive.com/2021/10/is-a-chinese-military-attack-on-taiwan-inevitable/

Even though some commentators are confident that the chance of war between China and Taiwan is remote[1], the odds of military action are growing by the day. In large part because Chinese Communist Party (CCP) leader Xi Jinping has publicly vowed, again and again, to wrench control of the island from its inhabitants.

He also may have set a deadline, amplifying the pressure. It is less clear when that deadline falls. Party leaders routinely cite 2049, the centennial of the foundation of the People’s Republic of China, as the date when the national rejuvenation project[2]  must be complete.[3]

Earlier this year, however, outgoing US Indo-Pacific Command chief Admiral Phil Davidson told Congress that Beijing might move against Taiwan far earlier than the centennial – perhaps within the next six years (closer to five now).[4] China-watchers have taken to calling this interval the “Davidson window”, meaning China’s window of opportunity to seize this prime real estate.

So one school of thought says they'll do it by 2049, another says in the next 5-6 years.

[WLJ]

From earlier this month:

https://www.19fortyfive.com/2021/10/is-a-chinese-military-attack-on-taiwan-inevitable/

So one school of thought says they'll do it by 2049, another says in the next 5-6 years.

And that's one of the differences between China and US thinking when it comes to these matters.
To the US 5-6 years is too far in the future to worry about.
To the Chinese 2049 might as well be tomorrow.

[MechAg94]

And that's one of the differences between China and US thinking when it comes to these matters.
To the US 5-6 years is too far in the future to worry about.
To the Chinese 2049 might as well be tomorrow.

They have all sort of problems right now.  28 years from now is certainly not tomorrow.  The current leaders may not even be in power then.  IMO, drop that down to 10 years. 

[tokugawa]

I don't know how well we would do in a shooting war with China, but I think it is a mistake to assume they are some sort of military masterminds.  They haven't fought a serious war in decades same as us.  If it was really hot, there would be a lot of lessons learned on both sides.

 They have done pretty good so far. Most still don't even realize there is a war going on. SunTzu is giggling in his grave over the wuhan gain of function virus, and the initial Chinese spread alarm-ism that caused most of the free world to commit economic seppeku.

[Pb]

The last time we fought against then was the Korean war, it was a bloodbath, and ended in a tie. 

They have a lot better tech now.

[Fly320s]

The last time we fought against then was the Korean war, it was a bloodbath, and ended in a tie. 

They have a lot better tech now.

But is it good tech?  Has it been tested?

I put the Chinese in the same bin as the Russians:  their tech sucks, but they have a lot of it.

[HankB]

Taiwan is still using some old-time tech . . . the included video sort of reminds me of  "The Guns of Navarone - Light"

https://medium.com/war-is-boring/these-taiwanese-howitzers-are-enormous-5a578d5320de

[MechAg94]

But is it good tech?  Has it been tested?

I put the Chinese in the same bin as the Russians:  their tech sucks, but they have a lot of it.

That is sort of the way I look at it.  I don't assume they are 1st class just because they put up a good image.  Yes, politically, they outclass the political elite in this country, but I thought Trump was handling them fine so I don't think they are geniuses.  As for long term planning, we saw they built entire cities that were uninhabited due to poor planning.  They have plenty of warts. 

I also don't think we would be quite as tough as I would like us to be.  Aside from political handcuffs our forces would likely have in any early engagement, I don't have a great deal of confidence in our military leadership.  Not as bad as I fear, but plenty of lightweights in the chain of command.  I think the older generations of political elite were smarter people, but the current crop is short sighted and foolish.

[HankB]

. . . . I also don't think we would be quite as tough as I would like us to be.  Aside from political handcuffs our forces would likely have in any early engagement, I don't have a great deal of confidence in our military leadership.  Not as bad as I fear, but plenty of lightweights in the chain of command.  I think the older generations of political elite were smarter people, but the current crop is short sighted and foolish.

Have to agree with this - it's been a problem for quite a while. Truman established his "Yalu River Safe Zone" for Chinese & Russian piloted MIGs during the Korean War, and of course Lyndon Bains Johnson's running of the Vietnam war made him North Vietnam's most accomplished general.

[MechAg94]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ydEgap5XeGM
Why China Switched to the New QBZ-191 Primary Weapon

I thought the crowd here might want to see this video on China's new rifle. 


He also has a couple videos on the new Humvee replacement.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Sk2RgnpunjQ
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xiv_Bo9WGkQ