Poll

The question is, when?

This year
1 (4.8%)
Within two years
8 (38.1%)
Within five years
6 (28.6%)
Within the decade
4 (19%)
Not in our lifetime
2 (9.5%)

Total Members Voted: 21

Author Topic: China will assume control of Taiwan  (Read 1153 times)

Ron

  • friends
  • Senior Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 10,881
  • Like a tree planted by the rivers of water
    • What I believe ...
China will assume control of Taiwan
« on: October 07, 2021, 09:15:27 AM »
I'm thinking within the decade and it will be a peaceful affair.
For the invisible things of him since the creation of the world are clearly seen, being perceived through the things that are made, even his everlasting power and divinity, that they may be without excuse. Because knowing God, they didn’t glorify him as God, and didn’t give thanks, but became vain in their reasoning, and their senseless heart was darkened. Professing themselves to be wise, they became fools.

dogmush

  • friend
  • Senior Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 13,663
Re: China will assume control of Taiwan
« Reply #1 on: October 07, 2021, 09:37:33 AM »
I think there's too many variables there to make a solid guess.

They certainly want to, but I don't think they are willing to risk a shooting war with NATO over it.  I don't know enough about Aussie politics to guess where they stand on Taiwan, but a couple nuclear attack boats are a pretty pointed message to a country with 1.5 working carrier.

The west, on the other hand, could use a good shooting war to unify the disparate tribes we are dealing with.

Additionally, as we have said in other threads, China is running into resource problems in expanding their coprosperity sphere, which I think is more of a driver to their actions than Taiwan.

And lastly, if I were Taiwan, I would be making it known to all of the west that all the advanced chip plants they have are rigged to blow, and if China comes in and they don't get help they are taking 92% of the worlds advanced microchips with them.

Throw in some cultural communication issues between east and west, any upheaval in China internally, and the US's .......let's say tumultuous political environment, and you might as well be throwing chicken bones.

Ben

  • Administrator
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 45,736
  • I'm an Extremist!
Re: China will assume control of Taiwan
« Reply #2 on: October 07, 2021, 09:43:38 AM »
And lastly, if I were Taiwan, I would be making it known to all of the west that all the advanced chip plants they have are rigged to blow, and if China comes in and they don't get help they are taking 92% of the worlds advanced microchips with them.

We need one of those thumbs up emojis.
"I'm a foolish old man that has been drawn into a wild goose chase by a harpy in trousers and a nincompoop."

RocketMan

  • Mad Rocket Scientist
  • friend
  • Senior Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 13,578
  • Semper Fidelis
Re: China will assume control of Taiwan
« Reply #3 on: October 07, 2021, 09:57:59 AM »
And lastly, if I were Taiwan, I would be making it known to all of the west that all the advanced chip plants they have are rigged to blow, and if China comes in and they don't get help they are taking 92% of the worlds advanced microchips with them.

That's always been a very serious consideration for the West, but I wonder if the CCP might be blinded to that fact by their pride and their longstanding desire to gain control over Taiwan.
In the past, the only real impediment to them taking Taiwan has been the USA.  We are no longer a threat to them in that regard with China Joe in their pocket.  Now might be the time for them to make their move and pull the Taiwan thorn from their side.
If there really was intelligent life on other planets, we'd be sending them foreign aid.

Conservatives see George Orwell's "1984" as a cautionary tale.  Progressives view it as a "how to" manual.

My wife often says to me, "You are evil and must be destroyed." She may be right.

Liberals believe one should never let reason, logic and facts get in the way of a good emotional argument.

ConstitutionCowboy

  • friend
  • Senior Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 642
  • My Gender and Pronouns are Standard.
Re: China will assume control of Taiwan
« Reply #4 on: October 07, 2021, 10:00:10 AM »
If and when China acquires Taiwan, however it does, it will be to pillage and plunder, thereby dragging all the Taiwanese down to the level of the mainland Chinese. Then China will turn its attention to some other source of "largess" to pillage and plunder in order to support themselves since communism cannot. That's how I see it. I've seen too much history to support any other foreseeable future.

Woody
   "Knowing the past, I'll not surrender any arms and march less prepared into the future."   B.E.Wood

Ron

  • friends
  • Senior Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 10,881
  • Like a tree planted by the rivers of water
    • What I believe ...
Re: China will assume control of Taiwan
« Reply #5 on: October 07, 2021, 10:14:26 AM »
We need one of those thumbs up emojis.

Indeed, brilliant idea
For the invisible things of him since the creation of the world are clearly seen, being perceived through the things that are made, even his everlasting power and divinity, that they may be without excuse. Because knowing God, they didn’t glorify him as God, and didn’t give thanks, but became vain in their reasoning, and their senseless heart was darkened. Professing themselves to be wise, they became fools.

MillCreek

  • Skippy The Wonder Dog
  • friend
  • Senior Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 19,963
  • APS Risk Manager
Re: China will assume control of Taiwan
« Reply #6 on: October 07, 2021, 10:49:22 AM »
I think an argument against the 'peaceful reunification' of Taiwan with the PRC is the experience of Hong Kong.  The PRC made lots of promises back in 1997, but look how the PRC has been tightening the screws on Hong Kong in recent years.  I bet Taipei thinks about this.
_____________
Regards,
MillCreek
Snohomish County, WA  USA


Quote from: Angel Eyes on August 09, 2018, 01:56:15 AM
You are one lousy risk manager.

WLJ

  • friends
  • Senior Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 27,837
  • On Patrol In The Epsilon Eridani System
Re: China will assume control of Taiwan
« Reply #7 on: October 07, 2021, 10:56:29 AM »
Give Taiwan back to Japan. Let them sort it out with China.
"Sometimes I think the surest sign that intelligent life exists elsewhere in the universe is that none of it has tried to contact us".
- Calvin and Hobbes

Ron

  • friends
  • Senior Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 10,881
  • Like a tree planted by the rivers of water
    • What I believe ...
Re: China will assume control of Taiwan
« Reply #8 on: October 07, 2021, 11:23:41 AM »
I think an argument against the 'peaceful reunification' of Taiwan with the PRC is the experience of Hong Kong.  The PRC made lots of promises back in 1997, but look how the PRC has been tightening the screws on Hong Kong in recent years.  I bet Taipei thinks about this.

I guess by peaceful I meant not military action to take by force.

You are correct, there are many means of applying force other than military action.
« Last Edit: October 07, 2021, 01:22:19 PM by Ron »
For the invisible things of him since the creation of the world are clearly seen, being perceived through the things that are made, even his everlasting power and divinity, that they may be without excuse. Because knowing God, they didn’t glorify him as God, and didn’t give thanks, but became vain in their reasoning, and their senseless heart was darkened. Professing themselves to be wise, they became fools.

HeroHog

  • Technical Site Pig
  • Administrator
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 8,030
  • It can ALWAYS get worse!
    • FaceButt Profile
Re: China will assume control of Taiwan
« Reply #9 on: October 08, 2021, 01:31:57 AM »
We need one of those thumbs up emojis.

Ask and ye shall receive (if I can remember where that setting is...)

Can't. They've locked down the directories. Looks like a new update is available for the system though.
I might not last very long or be very effective but I'll be a real pain in the ass for a minute!
MOLON LABE!

MechAg94

  • friend
  • Senior Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 33,619
Re: China will assume control of Taiwan
« Reply #10 on: October 08, 2021, 10:24:33 AM »
I have heard there is a pro-China faction in Taiwan, but Taiwan has been dedicated to staying independent for quite some time.  Unless there are some major changes there, I can't see them just rolling over just because we look weak. 

How much does Japan trade with Taiwan?

What I might see is some sort of trade relationship with China, but I thought they already had that to some extent.
« Last Edit: October 08, 2021, 12:04:13 PM by MechAg94 »
“It is much more important to kill bad bills than to pass good ones.”  ― Calvin Coolidge

Andiron

  • friend
  • Senior Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 3,930
Re: China will assume control of Taiwan
« Reply #11 on: October 08, 2021, 09:33:57 PM »
=

And lastly, if I were Taiwan, I would be making it known to all of the west that all the advanced chip plants they have are rigged to blow, and if China comes in and they don't get help they are taking 92% of the worlds advanced microchips with them.



This.

I'm from the Dan Carlin school of geopolitics on this one.  Hand Taipei a few nukes and wish them the best of luck.  The Izzy, Pakis and Indians all have the goods,  Taiwan should join the club.  Least the Chicoms would get hurt if they forced the issue.
"Leftism destroys everything good." -  Ron

There is no fixing stupid. But, you can line it up in front of a wall and offer it a last smoke.

There is no such thing as a "transgender" person.  Only mental illness that should be discouraged.

Angel Eyes

  • Lying dog-faced pony soldier
  • friend
  • Senior Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 12,257
  • You're not diggin'
Re: China will assume control of Taiwan
« Reply #12 on: October 09, 2021, 01:39:56 AM »
"I make love to men daily, but in the imagination."
                         - Barack Obama

zxcvbob

  • friend
  • Senior Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 12,208
"It's good, though..."

WLJ

  • friends
  • Senior Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 27,837
  • On Patrol In The Epsilon Eridani System
Re: China will assume control of Taiwan
« Reply #14 on: October 09, 2021, 12:55:52 PM »


Looks like I'm not he only one who was thinking along those lines
"Sometimes I think the surest sign that intelligent life exists elsewhere in the universe is that none of it has tried to contact us".
- Calvin and Hobbes

kgbsquirrel

  • APS Photoshop God
  • friend
  • Senior Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 5,466
  • Bill, slayer of threads.
Re: China will assume control of Taiwan
« Reply #15 on: October 09, 2021, 05:45:25 PM »
Trump should have put some B61's in a weapon vault on Taiwan.  A nuclear trip wire is about the only real way to keep expansionists at bay.

Pb

  • friend
  • Senior Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 4,887
Re: China will assume control of Taiwan
« Reply #16 on: October 10, 2021, 07:36:12 PM »
In submarines, in my opinion... presumably that could survive a surprise attack.  I hope the leadership of the ROC realizes that they must protect themselves, and not count on the USA.

MechAg94

  • friend
  • Senior Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 33,619
Re: China will assume control of Taiwan
« Reply #17 on: October 10, 2021, 08:12:39 PM »
Taiwan rejects China’s ‘path’ amid show of military force
https://apnews.com/article/entertainment-lifestyle-taiwan-taipei-music-03340a5f14db94c49b5a2a349a2ee3b4

Quote
Speaking at the island’s National Day celebrations, a rare show of Taiwanese defense capabilities in the annual parade underlined Tsai Ing-wen’s promise to resist Chinese military threats.

“We will do our utmost to prevent the status quo from being unilaterally altered,” President Tsai said.

“We will continue to bolster our national defense and demonstrate our determination to defend ourselves in order to ensure that nobody can force Taiwan to take the path China has laid out for us,” the Taiwanese leader added.

Quote
“The path that China has laid out offers neither a free and democratic way of life for Taiwan, nor sovereignty for our 23 million people,” Tsai said.
“It is much more important to kill bad bills than to pass good ones.”  ― Calvin Coolidge