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Author Topic: War in Eastern Europe, what's it good for ....  (Read 30593 times)

Pb

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Re: War in Eastern Europe, what's it good for ....
« Reply #1575 on: May 24, 2022, 10:59:35 PM »

I'm honestly surprised he hasn't been killed by a Vietnam veteran for colluding with the North Vietnamese by passing to them our weekly air strike plans.

Um, where I can read about this?   :O

WLJ

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Re: War in Eastern Europe, what's it good for ....
« Reply #1576 on: May 24, 2022, 11:01:03 PM »

He’ll get his due one way or another.  Men like that don’t trust in the forgiveness of Jesus, typically.

Think he's Jewish if that effects your statement
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Brad Johnson

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Re: War in Eastern Europe, what's it good for ....
« Reply #1577 on: May 25, 2022, 10:59:12 AM »

You know things aren't going well when you have to remove the age limit for military service because of combat losses to a nation one thirtieth your size.

https://www.foxnews.com/world/russia-removes-military-age-limits-ukraine-war-putin

Brad
It's all about the pancakes, people.
"And he thought cops wouldn't chase... a STOLEN DONUT TRUCK???? That would be like Willie Nelson ignoring a pickup full of weed."
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Pb

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Re: War in Eastern Europe, what's it good for ....
« Reply #1578 on: May 25, 2022, 01:39:54 PM »

We know Russia has been losing a lot of forces... but how has Ukraine been doing in comparison? 

HankB

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Re: War in Eastern Europe, what's it good for ....
« Reply #1579 on: May 25, 2022, 02:15:03 PM »

You know things aren't going well when you have to remove the age limit for military service because of combat losses to a nation one thirtieth your size.

https://www.foxnews.com/world/russia-removes-military-age-limits-ukraine-war-putin

Brad
I've read elsewhere that the percentage of Russian men conscripted who actually report for duty is going down.
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Lennyjoe

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Re: War in Eastern Europe, what's it good for ....
« Reply #1580 on: May 25, 2022, 03:22:02 PM »

Seen a video today out of Russia where they’re pulling T-62’s out of storage and on rail cars heading towards Ukraine.  Wondering how depleted their mainline tanks are or Putins saving them just in case….

Brad Johnson

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Re: War in Eastern Europe, what's it good for ....
« Reply #1581 on: May 25, 2022, 03:27:54 PM »

Seen a video today out of Russia where they’re pulling T-62’s out of storage and on rail cars heading towards Ukraine.  Wondering how depleted their mainline tanks are or Putins saving them just in case….

And how many of those T62s will die from poor maintenance, age-related degradation, and "mechanical failures" within the first few days.

Brad
It's all about the pancakes, people.
"And he thought cops wouldn't chase... a STOLEN DONUT TRUCK???? That would be like Willie Nelson ignoring a pickup full of weed."
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WLJ

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Re: War in Eastern Europe, what's it good for ....
« Reply #1582 on: May 25, 2022, 03:29:51 PM »

Russia: We have T-62s
Ukraine: We have tractors
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sumpnz

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Re: War in Eastern Europe, what's it good for ....
« Reply #1583 on: May 25, 2022, 03:30:50 PM »

Seen a video today out of Russia where they’re pulling T-62’s out of storage and on rail cars heading towards Ukraine.  Wondering how depleted their mainline tanks are or Putins saving them just in case….

If Peter Zeihan is right (at least very broadly, if not in some details) Putin WILL go after Poland, and the Baltics after Ukraine.  At least if he succeeds in taking Ukraine.  So totally conceivable he’s holding better equipment in reserve for that.  But I’d say it’s more likely that he’s running out of top line tanks, which would indicate a potential ultimate failure in taking Ukraine is shaping up.

DustinD

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Re: War in Eastern Europe, what's it good for ....
« Reply #1584 on: May 26, 2022, 11:03:09 AM »

I love Peter Zeihan's channel www.youtube.com/c/GEOPOP20

The statistics he gave for Russian demographics at the start of the war were eye opening. The huge number of people with AIDS, antibiotic resistant tuberculosis, liver disease, and other issues.
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Lennyjoe

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Re: War in Eastern Europe, what's it good for ....
« Reply #1585 on: May 26, 2022, 01:21:40 PM »

And how many of those T62s will die from poor maintenance, age-related degradation, and "mechanical failures" within the first few days.

Brad

Probably 60%…. :rofl:

MechAg94

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Re: War in Eastern Europe, what's it good for ....
« Reply #1586 on: May 26, 2022, 02:19:35 PM »

And how many of those T62s will die from poor maintenance, age-related degradation, and "mechanical failures" within the first few days.

Brad
I imagine those tanks in storage will require some work and won't have the latest and greatest systems, including missile defense.  I recall at least one video mentioning they weren't seeing a lot of the active missile defense systems Russia claims to have on its latest tank.  Considering all the anti-tank weapons being supplied to the Ukrainians, those tanks out of storage will be vulnerable.  And I imagine the tankers will know that.
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WLJ

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Re: War in Eastern Europe, what's it good for ....
« Reply #1587 on: May 27, 2022, 08:00:01 PM »

"Sometimes I think the surest sign that intelligent life exists elsewhere in the universe is that none of it has tried to contact us".
- Calvin and Hobbes

Brad Johnson

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Re: War in Eastern Europe, what's it good for ....
« Reply #1588 on: June 03, 2022, 05:38:35 PM »

Putin punching holes in senior Russian military leadership, at least those not already killed in combat.

https://currently.att.yahoo.com/news/putin-fires-five-more-generals-170433820.html

I truly expect one of his own to pop him, and soon. If not someone from the military, then a hit from the Russian mafia or oligarchs who've collectively lost hundreds of billions (possibly trillions) from freezes, seizures, and sanctions. I think he's way too physically insulated for a member of the gen public to do anything, but there are plenty of inner-circle types with access.

Brad
It's all about the pancakes, people.
"And he thought cops wouldn't chase... a STOLEN DONUT TRUCK???? That would be like Willie Nelson ignoring a pickup full of weed."
-HankB

sumpnz

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Re: War in Eastern Europe, what's it good for ....
« Reply #1589 on: June 03, 2022, 07:17:07 PM »

Putin punching holes in senior Russian military leadership, at least those not already killed in combat.

https://currently.att.yahoo.com/news/putin-fires-five-more-generals-170433820.html

I truly expect one of his own to pop him, and soon. If not someone from the military, then a hit from the Russian mafia or oligarchs who've collectively lost hundreds of billions (possibly trillions) from freezes, seizures, and sanctions. I think he's way too physically insulated for a member of the gen public to do anything, but there are plenty of inner-circle types with access.

Brad

Dunno how right he is, but Zeihan claims it’s almost impossible that anyone would take out Putin.  According to him there’s 2 groups of oligarchs.  There’s the group that robbed Russia blind before Putin came to power.  They made a deal with Putin to pay taxes and stay uninvolved in politics in exchange for not getting assassinated or exiled and everything taken away from them.  That group has zero access to Putin, and if Putin got whacked they also know they’re in grave danger because everyone in Russia despises them.

The second group of oligarchs were ex-KGB pals that owe their riches to Putin.  They’re supposedly too dependent on Putin to be a risk to him.  They have the access to Putin to whack him, but not the willingness to do so.  They also know that at the slightest hint of disloyalty they’re either dead or stripped of wealth and access.

Finally the generals are mostly too inept to take over the country.

I guess we’ll see where things go, and if Zeihan is right or not.

Pb

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Re: War in Eastern Europe, what's it good for ....
« Reply #1590 on: June 03, 2022, 07:35:06 PM »

I read that Putin's possible successors are even worse than he is.  True?  I don't know.

HankB

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Re: War in Eastern Europe, what's it good for ....
« Reply #1591 on: June 04, 2022, 08:46:55 AM »

If Peter Zeihan is right (at least very broadly, if not in some details) Putin WILL go after Poland, and the Baltics after Ukraine.  At least if he succeeds in taking Ukraine.  So totally conceivable he’s holding better equipment in reserve for that.  But I’d say it’s more likely that he’s running out of top line tanks, which would indicate a potential ultimate failure in taking Ukraine is shaping up.
Attacking a NATO ally would make things spiral entirely out of control - Russia would be facing retaliatory attacks worldwide, from Murmansk to Vladivostok from all 30 NATO countries. And I don't think the Russian navy would stand up very well to the USN. The only way I see Putin attacking Poland or the Baltics is if it was arranged to coincide with a Chinese attack on Taiwan in order to split our attention. And I devoutly hope saner heads will prevail and recognize how far this could escalate.

More likely is an attack on NON-NATO nations like Moldova and the various ****stans that used to be part of the USSR. (Belarus already seems to be in Putin's camp, but I'm not sure what Russia's current  relationship is with Georgia, Armenia, and Azerbaijan.)
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MillCreek

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Angel Eyes

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Re: War in Eastern Europe, what's it good for ....
« Reply #1594 on: June 20, 2022, 04:52:29 PM »

"Spare me the bulls*** about constitutional rights."
      - Congressman David N. Cicilline (D-RI)

Jim147

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Re: War in Eastern Europe, what's it good for ....
« Reply #1595 on: June 20, 2022, 05:04:27 PM »

It's the Atlantic so I figure it will give me a headache. Anyone want to do the Cliff's Note's version?
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MechAg94

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Re: War in Eastern Europe, what's it good for ....
« Reply #1596 on: June 20, 2022, 05:19:34 PM »

The message at the bottom says "this is your last free article" so I guess it won't let me open it a second time. 

I will see if I can pull out a few key quotes:

Quote
the long-range ballistic missiles deployed on land and on submarines are Russia’s only nuclear weapons available for immediate use. If Putin decides to attack Ukraine with shorter-range, “tactical” nuclear weapons, they will have to be removed from an Object S site—such as Belgorod-22, just 25 miles from the Ukrainian border—and transported to military bases. It will take hours for the weapons to be made combat-ready, for warheads to be mated with cruise missiles or ballistic missiles, for hydrogen bombs to be loaded on planes. The United States will most likely observe the movement of these weapons in real time: by means of satellite surveillance, cameras hidden beside the road, local agents with binoculars. And that will raise a question of existential importance: What should the United States do?
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MechAg94

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Re: War in Eastern Europe, what's it good for ....
« Reply #1597 on: June 20, 2022, 05:25:29 PM »

This quote just sounds odd.  Anyone know anything about that situation?  Weird way to treat pilots.  I am assuming they had a full fuel load.  The quote makes it sound like they had less than a full tank deliberately.   
Quote
In october 1962, Sam Nunn was a 24-year-old recent graduate from Emory University School of Law who’d just gotten a security clearance and a job as a staff member for the House Armed Services Committee. When a colleague backed out of an overseas tour of NATO bases, Nunn took his place, left the United States for the first time—and wound up at Ramstein Air Base, in Germany, at the height of the Cuban missile crisis. Nunn remembers seeing NATO fighters parked near runways, each loaded with a single hydrogen bomb, ready to fly toward the Soviet Union. Pilots sat in chairs beside their planes, day and night, trying to get some sleep while awaiting the order to take off. They had only enough fuel for a one-way mission and planned to bail out somewhere, somehow, after dropping their bombs. The commander of the U.S. Air Force in Europe told Nunn that if a war began, his pilots would have to get their planes off the ground within a few minutes; Ramstein Air Base would be one of the first NATO targets destroyed by a Soviet nuclear attack. The commander kept a walkie-talkie with him at all times to give the takeoff order.
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Brad Johnson

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Re: War in Eastern Europe, what's it good for ....
« Reply #1598 on: June 20, 2022, 05:33:35 PM »

This quote just sounds odd.  Anyone know anything about that situation?  Weird way to treat pilots.  I am assuming they had a full fuel load.  The quote makes it sound like they had less than a full tank deliberately.   

Considering Ramstein would probably be a smoking hole by the time they got back, it makes sense. Unorthodox, sure, but might why go to the trouble of having jets return to a base (or more likely bases) that no longer existed.

Brad
It's all about the pancakes, people.
"And he thought cops wouldn't chase... a STOLEN DONUT TRUCK???? That would be like Willie Nelson ignoring a pickup full of weed."
-HankB

MechAg94

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Re: War in Eastern Europe, what's it good for ....
« Reply #1599 on: June 20, 2022, 05:33:52 PM »

The rest of it talks about what the US/NATO should do if:
1.  They detect nukes being removed from storage sites in Russia or
2.  Putin uses a nuke in the Ukraine. 

Apparently, some favor a limited nuclear response.  The author seems to favor ideas that we should not use nukes.  We should escalate our current stance and respond with conventional and political means.  Lots and lots of story telling scattered throughout with quotes from experts. 
That is what I got from skimming it.  I wasn't going to read that whole thing.
“It is much more important to kill bad bills than to pass good ones.”  ― Calvin Coolidge
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