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Author Topic: War in Eastern Europe, what's it good for ....  (Read 52776 times)

Ben

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Re: War in Eastern Europe, what's it good for ....
« Reply #1950 on: November 15, 2022, 05:38:39 PM »

S2 Underground's take:

Quote
For Immediate Release: Ukrainian War Update – Missile Strikes Poland, Killing Two
BLUF: This is a very serious event, which will increase tensions throughout Europe as we wait for NATO’s response. The most serious result of this strike will be the potential for out-of-control escalation of force that could result in a serious conflagration in the coming days.
What we know so far: At approximately 23:17 GMT, at least one missile/rocket struck the small border farming community of Przewodow, Poland, killing two Polish citizens. The strike occurred at approximately the same time as Russia launched a large, multi-front-wide artillery barrage on critical Ukrainian energy infrastructure, which in turn has been a continuation of the conflict in Ukraine. At this time, it is not clear if the missile/rocket strike was due to a mistake (or equipment malfunction), and currently neither NATO nor Russia have responded to the strike. Various NATO and non-NATO members throughout Europe have placed their military forces on high alert in response to this event.
Analyst Comment – As tensions remain high throughout Europe, fears of a global conflict erupting from this event are at an all-time high. Simply put, this scenario, cross-border fires resulting in CIVCAS (civilian casualties) are exactly what NATO (and Russia/Eastern Bloc nations) have been preparing for since the beginning of the Cold War. From a technical standpoint, it is a miracle that this event hasn’t happened until now, as unguided missiles are just that…unguided. This is why unguided missile systems usually have what’s called a high Circular Error Probability. Meaning that, compared to a Precision munition, an unguided projectile has a very large circle that it can land in, which can sometimes be hundreds of meters in diameter (depending on range, munition, weather, etc). Couple this with the potential for mechanical and/or user error, devastating mistakes can easily be made using many of the weapons systems currently employed in Ukraine. However, this itself is an assumption…we cannot even be sure that the strike is Russian in origin at this time. As the weapons systems used by Russia and Ukraine are for the most part identical, we may never find out which nation caused the death of two Polish citizens.
Fear that this incident will spiral out of hand is justified, but we must remember that the most serious factor impacting this event is once again in the information space. In short, BE CAREFUL where you get your information regarding this event (and every event related to the Ukrainian War). As always, this situation is highly dynamic, and almost nothing is confirmed. Propaganda, false-flag attacks, and lack of communication are the most serious catalysts of escalating conflict, and some of the most significant efforts during the Ukrainian War have been made on the information front.
Militarily, Poland is almost certainly preparing to conduct retaliatory strikes on targets chosen from various lists of strategic targets that surely have been prepared since the start of this War. Whether or not Poland will choose to target Russian facilities in Russia, Ukraine, or Belarus is unknown. Additionally, whether or not Poland will choose to act without the rest of NATO is also unknown. Cross-border fires are not an uncommon aspect of warfare…but cross-border fires have historically been used by politicians and senior military officials to drag a nation into war. Observing Poland’s (and NATO’s) response will be a high priority as we move forward, and a strong indicator of how likely further escalation is to occur.

Strategically, no nation in Europe is ready for WW3 right now, despite the posturing and propaganda put forth by all sides. No nation that has ever gone to war has done so from a perspective of being 100% ready for the conflict, but as the situation throughout Europe indicates, there are many serious issues that complicate the potential for war. Russia is facing serious manpower and logistics woes, most other European nations are facing energy crises, and every nation has learned how they have misaligned their military priorities for decades. This, combined with the horrific and costly nature of the War in Ukraine, indicates that it is unlikely that this incident will result in “WW3 kicking off”. However, this does not mean that mistakes cannot be made, and that miscommunication cannot occur. The next few days will be full of tension and uncertainty as we observe the reactions from NATO (and other non-member states). Virtue signaling and warmongering in the private sector will continue on all sides, and the war in the information space will continue as before. Conversely, the historical precedence this strike (if it indeed was Russian in origin) sets is not positive, and likely will have very serious implications for Europe as we move into what is certain to be a rough winter throughout the continent.
"I'm a foolish old man that has been drawn into a wild goose chase by a harpy in trousers and a nincompoop."

Ben

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Re: War in Eastern Europe, what's it good for ....
« Reply #1951 on: November 15, 2022, 05:42:56 PM »

And the White House just called for $37 billion in new Ukraine funding.

I kinda wonder how many missile launchers are in the hands of Ukrainian oligarchs?
"I'm a foolish old man that has been drawn into a wild goose chase by a harpy in trousers and a nincompoop."

MillCreek

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Re: War in Eastern Europe, what's it good for ....
« Reply #1952 on: November 15, 2022, 05:43:10 PM »

^^^Well, this increases my pucker factor.
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MillCreek
Snohomish County, WA  USA


Quote from: Angel Eyes on August 09, 2018, 01:56:15 AM
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charby

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Re: War in Eastern Europe, what's it good for ....
« Reply #1953 on: November 15, 2022, 05:51:35 PM »

Party like it's 199939

fixed it fer ya
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WLJ

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Re: War in Eastern Europe, what's it good for ....
« Reply #1954 on: November 15, 2022, 06:01:27 PM »

fixed it fer ya

I was thinking more along the lines of the the song

I was dreamin' when I wrote this
Forgive me if it goes astray
But when I woke up this mornin'
Could've sworn it was judgment day

The sky was all purple
There were people runnin' everywhere
Tryin' to run from the destruction
You know I didn't even care

'Cause they say two thousand zero zero
Party over, oops out of time
So tonight I'm gonna party like it's 1999

I was dreamin' when I wrote this
So sue me if I go too fast
But life is just a party
And parties weren't meant to last

War is all around us
My mind says prepare to fight
So if I gotta die
I'm gonna listen to my body tonight

Yeah, they say two thousand zero zero
Party over, oops out of time
So tonight I'm gonna party like it's 1999
Yeah, yeah

Lemme tell ya somethin'
If you didn't come to party
Don't bother knockin' on my door
I got a lion in my pocket
And baby he's ready to roar, yeah yeah

Everybody's got a bomb
We could all die here today, uhh
But before I'll let that happen
I'll dance my life away, oh

They say two thousand zero zero
Party over, oops out of time
We're runnin' outta time
So tonight we gonna, we gonna (tonight I'm gonna party like it's 1999)

Say it one more time
Two thousand zero zero
Party over, oops out of time
Yeah, yeah
So tonight we gonna, we gonna (tonight I'm gonna party like it's 1999)

1999 (1999)
Don't ya want to go (1999)
Don't ya want to go (1999)
We could all die here today (1999)
I don't want to die
I'd rather dance my life away
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Jim147

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Re: War in Eastern Europe, what's it good for ....
« Reply #1955 on: November 15, 2022, 06:57:24 PM »

How's the big guy going to get his 10% with FTX dead?
Sometimes we carry more weight then we owe.
And sometimes goes on and on and on.

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cordex

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Re: War in Eastern Europe, what's it good for ....
« Reply #1956 on: November 15, 2022, 07:42:54 PM »

… then the Winged Hussars arrived?

WLJ

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Re: War in Eastern Europe, what's it good for ....
« Reply #1957 on: November 15, 2022, 10:25:29 PM »

Biden tells Russia to remove it's missiles from Cuba

Just kidding

Anyhow
Can't tell if he means it was a Russian missile fired from somewhere other than Russia or what.
Glad we're in good hands and it's not that madman Trump

Quote
Unlikely that missile was fired from Russia - Biden

We're now hearing from US President Joe Biden, who says it is "unlikely" that the missile responsible for killing two people in Poland was fired from Russia.

He says there is "preliminary information that contests" whether the incident in Poland was due to a missile fired from Russia.

"I don't want to say that until we completely investigate, but it's unlikely in the minds of the trajectory that it was fired from Russia, but we'll see."

Biden says that world leaders will determine the next steps after finding out what happened - following investigations taking place in Poland.
https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-asia-63593855
« Last Edit: November 15, 2022, 11:29:06 PM by WLJ »
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MechAg94

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Re: War in Eastern Europe, what's it good for ....
« Reply #1958 on: November 15, 2022, 11:25:28 PM »

All this talk of war is making Germany nervous....

German army accidentally issues uniforms with 'SS' labels
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11429409/German-army-accidentally-issues-uniforms-SS-labels.html

Quote
The initials were originally intended to be an acronym for 'small, short' on the smallest uniforms, according to The Jewish Chronicle.

The 'SS' acronym appeared on helmets, sleeping bags and waterproof jackets issued to troops.
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Fly320s

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Re: War in Eastern Europe, what's it good for ....
« Reply #1959 on: November 16, 2022, 08:26:42 AM »

Why would Germany use English words for sizing their clothes?
Islamic sex dolls.  Do they blow themselves up?

Ben

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Re: War in Eastern Europe, what's it good for ....
« Reply #1960 on: November 16, 2022, 08:27:45 AM »

All this talk of war is making Germany nervous....

German army accidentally issues uniforms with 'SS' labels
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11429409/German-army-accidentally-issues-uniforms-SS-labels.html

I wonder if that's fake news. Germans don't speak English. It should be "KK" for klein kurz, not "SS".

Edit: 320s posted at the same time.
"I'm a foolish old man that has been drawn into a wild goose chase by a harpy in trousers and a nincompoop."

cordex

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Re: War in Eastern Europe, what's it good for ....
« Reply #1961 on: November 16, 2022, 08:32:30 AM »

I wonder if that's fake news. Germans don't speak English. It should be "KK" for klein kurz, not "SS".

Edit: 320s posted at the same time.
Yeah, it was completely fake news.  The actual problem was that they were using the three letter abbreviation for small, short, war uniform.

Ben

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Re: War in Eastern Europe, what's it good for ....
« Reply #1962 on: November 16, 2022, 09:32:55 AM »

Yeah, it was completely fake news.  The actual problem was that they were using the three letter abbreviation for small, short, war uniform.

 =D
"I'm a foolish old man that has been drawn into a wild goose chase by a harpy in trousers and a nincompoop."

Ben

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Re: War in Eastern Europe, what's it good for ....
« Reply #1963 on: November 16, 2022, 09:35:23 AM »

What a difference a night makes. A pretty quick switch from "RUSSIA!" to "Oops, Ukraine maybe". The US will still throw that $37 billion (I also saw a call for another $50 billion) in the direction of Ukraine, though we still don't know where it goes.
"I'm a foolish old man that has been drawn into a wild goose chase by a harpy in trousers and a nincompoop."

WLJ

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Re: War in Eastern Europe, what's it good for ....
« Reply #1964 on: November 16, 2022, 09:43:54 AM »

What a difference a night makes. A pretty quick switch from "RUSSIA!" to "Oops, Ukraine maybe". The US will still throw that $37 billion (I also saw a call for another $50 billion) in the direction of Ukraine, though we still don't know where it goes.

When I first saw the news I was thinking it could have a Ukrainian SAM that missed and didn't Clinton itself.
Watch it be a US made missile

Ukraine air defence likely caused Poland explosion - Nato chief
https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-asia-63593855
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dogmush

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Re: War in Eastern Europe, what's it good for ....
« Reply #1965 on: November 16, 2022, 09:57:21 AM »

When I first saw the news I was thinking it could have a Ukrainian SAM that missed and didn't Clinton itself.
Watch it be a US made missile

Ukraine air defence likely caused Poland explosion - Nato chief
https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-asia-63593855

It's looking like it was an S-300 fired by Ukraine.  But since it's a Russian SAM, the narrative can still be it's "from Russia".  >:D

WLJ

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Re: War in Eastern Europe, what's it good for ....
« Reply #1966 on: November 16, 2022, 10:23:40 AM »

MSNBC: It was fired from Mar-A-Lago and it effected POC the most.
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Cliffh

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Re: War in Eastern Europe, what's it good for ....
« Reply #1967 on: November 16, 2022, 01:35:19 PM »

It could be that TPTB have decided declaring it a Russian missile would lead to a greater NATO involvement in the war.  By calling it a Ukrainian missile they don't have to put troops in the mess.

RoadKingLarry

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Re: War in Eastern Europe, what's it good for ....
« Reply #1968 on: November 16, 2022, 01:40:32 PM »

What a difference a night makes. A pretty quick switch from "RUSSIA!" to "Oops, Ukraine maybe". The US will still throw that $37 billion (I also saw a call for another $50 billion) in the direction of Ukraine, though we still don't know where it goes.

10% for the big guy.
If ye love wealth better than liberty, the tranquility of servitude better than the animating contest of freedom, go home from us in peace. We ask not your counsels or your arms. Crouch down and lick the hands which feed you. May your chains set lightly upon you, and may posterity forget that you were our countrymen.

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Angel Eyes

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Re: War in Eastern Europe, what's it good for ....
« Reply #1969 on: November 16, 2022, 05:18:44 PM »

Re that Russian/not-Russian missile that hit Poland:

https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/1592980652072337408?cxt=HHwWgIC8zdHds5ssAAAA

Quote
Thank you AP, for correcting a story that nearly launched WW3. Now maybe you can also name the "senior American intelligence official who spoke on condition of anonymity" and who may have had ulterior motives in bringing the world to the edge of nuclear war

Go ahead, I'll wait.
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WLJ

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Re: War in Eastern Europe, what's it good for ....
« Reply #1970 on: November 18, 2022, 07:08:18 PM »

"Sometimes I think the surest sign that intelligent life exists elsewhere in the universe is that none of it has tried to contact us".
- Calvin and Hobbes

Angel Eyes

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Re: War in Eastern Europe, what's it good for ....
« Reply #1971 on: November 18, 2022, 10:36:02 PM »

Was he filming a movie?
"Spare me the bulls*** about constitutional rights."
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WLJ

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Re: War in Eastern Europe, what's it good for ....
« Reply #1972 on: November 22, 2022, 11:49:41 AM »

Re that Russian/not-Russian missile that hit Poland:

https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/1592980652072337408?cxt=HHwWgIC8zdHds5ssAAAA

Go ahead, I'll wait.

Reportedly AP fired the reporter.

Quote
    SCOOP: The @AP has fired reporter Jim LaPorta, one of the two bylines on a retracted report last week alleging Russian missiles landed in NATO member Poland. The report relied a single anonymous source, a violation of AP's policy.

    w/@LachCartwright:https://t.co/h5EBwt7TTX

    — Corbin Bolies (@CorbinBolies) November 22, 2022
https://twitchy.com/samj-3930/2022/11/22/sean-davis-calls-serious-bs-on-ap-claiming-journo-was-fired-for-violating-policy-on-anonymous-sources/
"Sometimes I think the surest sign that intelligent life exists elsewhere in the universe is that none of it has tried to contact us".
- Calvin and Hobbes

WLJ

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Re: War in Eastern Europe, what's it good for ....
« Reply #1973 on: November 24, 2022, 12:40:16 PM »

Sorry tank fans, despite reports of a Panther being used in the war it's a replica. Still an interesting story of why it's there nevertheless.

 WW2 Panther Tank Fighting in Ukraine 2022?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H8ORpaI799I
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K Frame

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Re: War in Eastern Europe, what's it good for ....
« Reply #1974 on: November 25, 2022, 09:36:27 AM »

Holy Crap... According to an FSB source, Putin's first plan was to... attack Japan, not Ukraine.

https://www.newsbreak.com/news/2835950189566/russia-planned-to-attack-japan-in-2021-leaked-fsb-letters?_f=app_share&s=a1&share_destination_id=OTk4MzEzMTEtMTY2OTM0MDMyOTk0Mg==&pd=06ksgROV&hl=en_US&send_time=1669340329&actBtn=fb&trans_data=%7B%22platform%22%3A1%2C%22cv%22%3A%2222.46.0%22%2C%22languages%22%3A%22en%22%7D

You want World War III? Because that's how you get World War III.

Although I have absolutely no doubt that the JSDF would have done an even more thorough job of crushing the Russian military.
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