Author Topic: War in Eastern Europe, what's it good for ....  (Read 130868 times)

Nick1911

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Re: War in Eastern Europe, what's it good for ....
« Reply #700 on: March 08, 2022, 03:12:59 PM »
We're already providing weapons directly to Ukraine, aren't we?

Yes, but for some reason many seems to think fighter jets are a bridge too far, and an escalation which could cause Russia to consider the US a belligerent.  I'm not sure how much that matters in a proxy conflict between two nuclear states.

cordex

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Re: War in Eastern Europe, what's it good for ....
« Reply #701 on: March 08, 2022, 03:17:07 PM »
Yes, but for some reason many seems to think fighter jets are a bridge too far, and an escalation which could cause Russia to consider the US a belligerent.  I'm not sure how much that matters in a proxy conflict between two nuclear states.
Sure, that's fair, but in my opinion we've already given them plenty of pretext if that's what they want.  For instance, they had a policy that kicking them out of SWIFT would be considered an act of war.  We did that (at least partially).  Plus all the weapons we've already sent.

At this stage, sending more equipment doesn't seem like it is any more transgressive.

Nick1911

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Re: War in Eastern Europe, what's it good for ....
« Reply #702 on: March 08, 2022, 03:22:18 PM »
Sure, that's fair, but in my opinion we've already given them plenty of pretext if that's what they want.  For instance, they had a policy that kicking them out of SWIFT would be considered an act of war.  We did that (at least partially).  Plus all the weapons we've already sent.

At this stage, sending more equipment doesn't seem like it is any more transgressive.

Yea, that's fair.  I suspect that despite the rhetoric on both sides, either side can get away with a lot before the other one begrudgingly actually calls it a war.  If that even really means anything anymore either.  It's just semantics, right?  The US has been in a lot of conflicts-that-totally-aren't-wars.

Ben

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Re: War in Eastern Europe, what's it good for ....
« Reply #703 on: March 08, 2022, 03:24:39 PM »
At this stage, sending more equipment doesn't seem like it is any more transgressive.

I'm much less worried about the ruskie response to us sending fighters to the conflict than I am about their response to us sending US manned fighters to the conflict and knocking a MIG out of the sky in a no-fly zone.
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sumpnz

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Re: War in Eastern Europe, what's it good for ....
« Reply #704 on: March 08, 2022, 03:31:27 PM »
Ehhhhh and that pus the US directly supplying MIG's to the Ukrainians.

We're already providing weapons directly to Ukraine, aren't we?

If we’re going to send them warplanes in the current circumstances better to send stuff they don’t need new training on.

WLJ

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Re: War in Eastern Europe, what's it good for ....
« Reply #705 on: March 08, 2022, 03:34:55 PM »
If we’re going to send them warplanes in the current circumstances better to send stuff they don’t need new training on.

Yep, why the Mig-29s, they're already trained and equipped for them. Although I wonder if they'll have an issue with everything being marked in Polish
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Ron

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Re: War in Eastern Europe, what's it good for ....
« Reply #706 on: March 08, 2022, 03:42:04 PM »
This will certainly be an escalation. Wonder how they are going to fair against Russian AA missiles and air force?
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WLJ

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Re: War in Eastern Europe, what's it good for ....
« Reply #707 on: March 08, 2022, 03:42:39 PM »
Says they're in violation of terms of service.
Reading the article I can see that. But some of this stuff does fall into a grey area though.

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dogmush

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Re: War in Eastern Europe, what's it good for ....
« Reply #708 on: March 08, 2022, 03:50:42 PM »
The thought occurred to me today:  Do we think that the Soviet era nukes and rockets are any better maintained and operational then the rest of the Red Army's gear is proving to be?  Given the results if we guess wrong, I'm not eager to roll the dice, but it's something to think about while sipping bourbon.

WLJ

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Re: War in Eastern Europe, what's it good for ....
« Reply #709 on: March 08, 2022, 03:54:32 PM »
The though occurred to me today:  Do we think that the Soviet era nukes and rockets are any better maintained and operational then the rest of the Red Army's gear is proving to be?  Given the results if we guess wrong, I'm not eager to roll the dice, but it's something to think about while sipping bourbon.

That thought has gone through my mind as well. But I would rather we didn't play Russian Roulette with nuclear weapons.
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Ron

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Re: War in Eastern Europe, what's it good for ....
« Reply #710 on: March 08, 2022, 03:57:58 PM »
That thought has gone through my mind as well. But I would rather we didn't play Russian Roulette with nuclear weapons.
I'm hoping there are many many baby steps before we leap into that potentiality.
For the invisible things of him since the creation of the world are clearly seen, being perceived through the things that are made, even his everlasting power and divinity, that they may be without excuse. Because knowing God, they didn’t glorify him as God, and didn’t give thanks, but became vain in their reasoning, and their senseless heart was darkened. Professing themselves to be wise, they became fools.

dogmush

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Re: War in Eastern Europe, what's it good for ....
« Reply #711 on: March 08, 2022, 04:00:10 PM »
If this isn't next years John Deere commercial, I will be disappointed.

https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1501293371071123456?s=20&t=EGm9xqauq_iQKIoHpcCMyg

cordex

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Re: War in Eastern Europe, what's it good for ....
« Reply #712 on: March 08, 2022, 04:03:52 PM »
The though occurred to me today:  Do we think that the Soviet era nukes and rockets are any better maintained and operational then the rest of the Red Army's gear is proving to be?  Given the results if we guess wrong, I'm not eager to roll the dice, but it's something to think about while sipping bourbon.
I was thinking along those lines as well, but with their nuclear stockpile it's really just a numbers game.  It doesn't take very many functional nukes to ruin our day, and even one that fails to go nuclear still makes a mess.  If a mere one out of ten in their actual deployed force actually work then they have plenty to target all major population centers in the US and Europe and plenty to go around for extra hits.  Allegedly they're also in the middle of a nuclear modernization effort, so some are pretty new.

Nick1911

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Re: War in Eastern Europe, what's it good for ....
« Reply #713 on: March 08, 2022, 04:20:04 PM »
The thought occurred to me today:  Do we think that the Soviet era nukes and rockets are any better maintained and operational then the rest of the Red Army's gear is proving to be?  Given the results if we guess wrong, I'm not eager to roll the dice, but it's something to think about while sipping bourbon.

No idea if this is true:
I've read that this is one area that post-soviet Russia kept funding well, in no small part because international agreements mean that foreign experts do get to see those weapons, and would be acutely aware of their status.  The nuclear deterrent wouldn't work so well if everyone could see that it wasn't going fire when needed.  The delivery vehicles, I don't know.

RocketMan

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Re: War in Eastern Europe, what's it good for ....
« Reply #714 on: March 08, 2022, 04:30:29 PM »
If this isn't next years John Deere commercial, I will be disappointed.

https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1501293371071123456?s=20&t=EGm9xqauq_iQKIoHpcCMyg

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WLJ

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Re: War in Eastern Europe, what's it good for ....
« Reply #715 on: March 08, 2022, 04:52:28 PM »

Lots of good info in this video.

 Ed Nash's Military Matters
Ukraine – Day 13
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j06nt7cofR8
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WLJ

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Re: War in Eastern Europe, what's it good for ....
« Reply #716 on: March 08, 2022, 06:58:51 PM »
Not so fast

Quote
Poland jet swap 'not tenable' - US
Pentagon spokesman John Kirby
Getty ImagesCopyright: Getty Images
Pentagon Spokesman John KirbyImage caption: Pentagon Spokesman John Kirby

US defence department spokesman John Kirby has rejected Poland's surprise offer to hand over its military jet fleet to the US - rather than Ukraine.

"As we have said, the decision about whether to transfer Polish-owned planes to Ukraine is ultimately one for the Polish government," Kirby said in a statement on Tuesday, adding that "Poland's proposal shows just some of the complexities this issue presents".

"The prospect of fighter jets 'at the disposal of the Government of the United States of America' departing from a US/Nato base in Germany to fly into airspace that is contested with Russia over Ukraine raises serious concerns for the entire Nato alliance," he said.

"It is simply not clear to us that there is a substantive rationale for it. We will continue to consult with Poland and our other Nato allies about this issue and the difficult logistical challenges it presents, but we do not believe Poland's proposal is a tenable one."
https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-europe-60657155
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Angel Eyes

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MechAg94

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Re: War in Eastern Europe, what's it good for ....
« Reply #718 on: March 08, 2022, 07:15:25 PM »
The thought occurred to me today:  Do we think that the Soviet era nukes and rockets are any better maintained and operational then the rest of the Red Army's gear is proving to be?  Given the results if we guess wrong, I'm not eager to roll the dice, but it's something to think about while sipping bourbon.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FDKH_FxFdrw

Task & Purpose showed some footage of Russian supply trucks with flat tires or dry rotted tires indicating some of their stuff is poorly maintained.  I don't want to plan on the nuclear capability being in the same boat.  At the least, there will be a portion of it that is in good readiness and that is enough. 

That video shows a little of what he thinks the Russians are up to.  He thinks they are taking things slow and making sure they have good logistics before they push forward. 

Similar to Nukes, I am curious just how much of Russia's military is fully ready to go and how much is poorly maintained or is lacking in fuel/parts/supplies.  I was sort of wondering if this is why they haven't used their jet aircraft as much.  Maybe they don't have a big stockpile of parts/fuel/munitions for an extended engagement.  Or maybe they would have to draw down forces in other areas more than they want.  Just speculation I guess.  Russian has a big, well equipped military, but they don't have the biggest economy.  There have to be gaps somewhere.
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dogmush

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Re: War in Eastern Europe, what's it good for ....
« Reply #719 on: March 08, 2022, 07:26:54 PM »

That video shows a little of what he thinks the Russians are up to.  He thinks they are taking things slow and making sure they have good logistics before they push forward. 


The only flaw in that theory is they appear to have *expletive deleted*it logistics.

WLJ

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Re: War in Eastern Europe, what's it good for ....
« Reply #720 on: March 08, 2022, 07:47:49 PM »
Quote
Fitch says default 'imminent' on Russian debt
Russian rouble bank notes
Getty ImagesCopyright: Getty Images

Fitch Ratings has downgraded Russia's credit rating further into 'junk' territory, from "B" to "C".

"The 'C' rating reflects Fitch's view that a sovereign default is imminent," according to a statement from the American credit rating agency today.

The change comes less than a week after Fitch's last downgrade, when it revoked Russia's investment-grade status.

Sanctions and trade restrictions have plunged the country's financial markets into turmoil and raised concerns about its ability to service debt.
https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-europe-60657155
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MechAg94

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Re: War in Eastern Europe, what's it good for ....
« Reply #722 on: March 08, 2022, 08:45:04 PM »
“It is much more important to kill bad bills than to pass good ones.”  ― Calvin Coolidge

MechAg94

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Re: War in Eastern Europe, what's it good for ....
« Reply #723 on: March 08, 2022, 08:46:12 PM »
The only flaw in that theory is they appear to have *expletive deleted*it logistics.
Yeah.  Just means they don't have a choice but to do what they are doing.  =)
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Ron

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Re: War in Eastern Europe, what's it good for ....
« Reply #724 on: March 08, 2022, 08:54:52 PM »
Quote
Russia Will Stop ‘In a Moment’ if Ukraine Meets Terms – Kremlin

By Reuters
|
March 7, 2022, at 6:57 a.m
By Catherine Belton

LONDON (Reuters) -Russia has told Ukraine it is ready to halt military operations “in a moment” if Kyiv meets a list of conditions, the Kremlin spokesman said on Monday.

Dmitry Peskov said Moscow was demanding that Ukraine cease military action, change its constitution to enshrine neutrality, acknowledge Crimea as Russian territory, and recognize the separatist republics of Donetsk and Lugansk as independent states.

It was the most explicit Russian statement so far of the terms it wants to impose on Ukraine to halt what it calls its “special military operation”, now on its 12th day.

Peskov told Reuters in a telephone interview that Ukraine was aware of the conditions. “And they were told that all this can be stopped in a moment.”

Russia might want to get the band back together but apparently not now. They don't even want Ukraine. They just don't want NATO on their border in Ukraine.
For the invisible things of him since the creation of the world are clearly seen, being perceived through the things that are made, even his everlasting power and divinity, that they may be without excuse. Because knowing God, they didn’t glorify him as God, and didn’t give thanks, but became vain in their reasoning, and their senseless heart was darkened. Professing themselves to be wise, they became fools.