Author Topic: War in Eastern Europe, what's it good for ....  (Read 131012 times)

Ron

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Re: War in Eastern Europe, what's it good for ....
« Reply #775 on: March 10, 2022, 08:27:13 PM »
What country doesn't?
Hospitals, med labs, agriculture research centers, and many colleges can be referred to as "Biological Research Facilities" as well.
The lab in Odessa is a bioweapon research lab we partnered with Ukraine in setting up. It wasn't secret it has been in the public all along. Who knew? I didn't.
For the invisible things of him since the creation of the world are clearly seen, being perceived through the things that are made, even his everlasting power and divinity, that they may be without excuse. Because knowing God, they didn’t glorify him as God, and didn’t give thanks, but became vain in their reasoning, and their senseless heart was darkened. Professing themselves to be wise, they became fools.

MechAg94

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Re: War in Eastern Europe, what's it good for ....
« Reply #776 on: March 10, 2022, 11:09:41 PM »
It's not just POTUS with mental issues.

To start chuckling when such a grave situation is under discussion and people are dying by the thousands, well, there is something wrong with this woman upstairs - she's just not right in the head.

Seriously.  :facepalm:
I figure it is some sort of speech crutch she learned a long time ago to cover up when she has nothing good to say or would fall into "uh, um, uh".  Probably fine as a low level state politicritter, but doesn't work at all at a national level position.   
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MechAg94

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Re: War in Eastern Europe, what's it good for ....
« Reply #777 on: March 10, 2022, 11:18:30 PM »
The lab in Odessa is a bioweapon research lab we partnered with Ukraine in setting up. It wasn't secret it has been in the public all along. Who knew? I didn't.
The public image is nice, but the research could easily be creating new bio-weapons and new deployment techniques all because someone might do that.  And it is interesting that all this is happening in foreign countries that are not subject to US laws about gain and function among other things.  The publicly known research could all be done in the US.  No reason to put it in foreign countries.

This is what happens when the govt spends 2 trillion a year or more.  No one really knows where all the money is going.
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Ron

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Re: War in Eastern Europe, what's it good for ....
« Reply #778 on: March 11, 2022, 08:31:10 AM »
The public image is nice, but the research could easily be creating new bio-weapons and new deployment techniques all because someone might do that.  And it is interesting that all this is happening in foreign countries that are not subject to US laws about gain and function among other things.  The publicly known research could all be done in the US.  No reason to put it in foreign countries.

This is what happens when the govt spends 2 trillion a year or more.  No one really knows where all the money is going.
Pretty balanced overview of the subject from the infamous Dr Malone.

https://rwmalonemd.substack.com/p/ukraine-biolab-watchtower?s=r

Quote
In other words, in my opinion, this is another topic that we will never be able to get to the bottom of, and we will never be able to discern something akin to objective “truth”. Best we can hope for is some sort of approximation of truth that is sort of like a kalidescope image viewed in a hall of mirrors.

In conclusion
In my opinion, the partnership relationship between DoD/DTRA (as historically structured) and the current government of Ukraine (which has functionally become a client state of the USA) was ill advised.
For the invisible things of him since the creation of the world are clearly seen, being perceived through the things that are made, even his everlasting power and divinity, that they may be without excuse. Because knowing God, they didn’t glorify him as God, and didn’t give thanks, but became vain in their reasoning, and their senseless heart was darkened. Professing themselves to be wise, they became fools.

Ron

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Re: War in Eastern Europe, what's it good for ....
« Reply #779 on: March 11, 2022, 08:51:19 AM »
There was a (failed) movement to deplatform Professor Mearsheimer of the University of Chicago for his prescient lecture on Ukraine back in 2015. 

https://dailysceptic.org/2022/03/10/chicago-students-try-to-cancel-professor-who-predicted-ukraine-crisis/
For the invisible things of him since the creation of the world are clearly seen, being perceived through the things that are made, even his everlasting power and divinity, that they may be without excuse. Because knowing God, they didn’t glorify him as God, and didn’t give thanks, but became vain in their reasoning, and their senseless heart was darkened. Professing themselves to be wise, they became fools.

WLJ

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Re: War in Eastern Europe, what's it good for ....
« Reply #780 on: March 11, 2022, 09:03:42 AM »
Are we now going to start arguing that Poland started WW-II by signing a defense agreement with France and the UK? Really?
Why would Ukraine, or any country, even feel the need to join a DEFENSE alliance if they didn't feel threaded by their neighbor? Putin had given indications ever since he came to power he wanted to get the band back together and everyone knew Ukraine would have to be target #1 or close to it for that to happen.  Just about every country bordering Russia that were formerly part of the Russian Empire and/or Soviet Union has been counting the days till when tanks started rolling their way.

Do I completely discount Russia's feelings of being surrounded, no. I think I understand that.. to a point. Russia was/is being a dick and how did anyone expect surrounding countries to react?

Blame for this

80-90% Putin
10-20% Ukraine/NATO Yes some things could have been handled differenty

« Last Edit: March 11, 2022, 09:16:32 AM by WLJ »
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MillCreek

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Re: War in Eastern Europe, what's it good for ....
« Reply #781 on: March 11, 2022, 09:12:05 AM »
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cordex

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Re: War in Eastern Europe, what's it good for ....
« Reply #782 on: March 11, 2022, 09:17:59 AM »
Are we now going to start arguing that Poland started WW-II by signing a defense agreement with France and the UK? Really?
The defense agreements were certainly necessary to starting WWII even if they weren't the proximate cause.

Likewise, the Black Hand killed Franz Ferdinand but that wouldn't have likely resulted in tens of millions dead absent alliances and defense agreements that caused the reprisals to escalate.

WLJ

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Re: War in Eastern Europe, what's it good for ....
« Reply #783 on: March 11, 2022, 09:26:18 AM »
The defense agreements were certainly necessary to starting WWII even if they weren't the proximate cause.

Likewise, the Black Hand killed Franz Ferdinand but that wouldn't have likely resulted in tens of millions dead absent alliances and defense agreements that caused the reprisals to escalate.

No argument there. Defense agreements do have their bad side.
But
Hitler made it clear in his writings he wanted to maintain peace or even try to form an alliance with the UK. France on the other hand was more than likely going to be invaded anyway, Hitler had a score to settle with France and France was considered Germany's traditional enemy plus he couldn't afford to have France in his rear for when it became the SU's turn. So even if there was no Poland/France/UK defense pact invading France would have brought the UK into the war anyway so not much would have really changed. Maybe France would have had a bit more time to rearm? The historical invasion of France was a near run thing at several points so who knows what would have happened.
« Last Edit: March 11, 2022, 10:13:55 AM by WLJ »
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WLJ

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Re: War in Eastern Europe, what's it good for ....
« Reply #784 on: March 11, 2022, 09:49:59 AM »
Another one

Quote
Senior Russian officer killed, says Ukrainian military
Andrei Kolesnikov
Russian Eastern Military DistrictCopyright: Russian Eastern Military District
Ukraine's military says Maj-Gen Andrei Kolesnikov has been killedImage caption: Ukraine's military says Maj-Gen Andrei Kolesnikov has been killed

A high-ranking Russian officer has been killed by Ukrainian forces, according to the Ukrainian military

Maj-Gen Andrei Kolesnikov was the commander of the 29th army of Russia's eastern military district, according to Anton Gerashchenko, an adviser to Ukraine's interior minister.

The details of his death are unknown and there has been no comment from the Russian side.

At least two other officers of the same rank have reportedly been killed since the war began two weeks ago.

Western officials have previously said the fact that such senior Russian officers have been exposing themselves to danger may be a sign of frustration that their advances have stalled.
https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-europe-60685883
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WLJ

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Re: War in Eastern Europe, what's it good for ....
« Reply #785 on: March 11, 2022, 09:58:56 AM »
Do you want Soviet nuclear mutants in an apocalyptic wasteland? Because this is how you get Soviet nuclear mutants in an apocalyptic wasteland.

https://www.npr.org/2022/03/11/1085427380/ukraine-nuclear-power-plant-zaporizhzhia?utm_medium=social&utm_term=nprnews&utm_campaign=npr&utm_source=facebook.com&fbclid=IwAR0bwb2iOVfXs6YPisbsawVOwHSapzZuSDj3FdcZH4X4ki9D9pqeLUXJtrA

Anyone here remember
Nuke them till they glow then shoot them in the dark
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WLJ

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Re: War in Eastern Europe, what's it good for ....
« Reply #786 on: March 11, 2022, 10:08:13 AM »
Quote
The latest from Ukraine

If you're just joining us, here are all the latest developments from Ukraine as the Russian invasion enters its 16th day:

    Ukrainian officials say they have killed Maj-Gen Andrei Kolesnikov, a senior Russian officer and commander of the 29th Army of the eastern district. The BBC cannot verify the claim and Moscow has yet to comment on the reports
    Regulators in Russia have applied to designate Meta as an "extremist organisation" after the company confirmed it will change its policies to allow for calls for violence against Russian forces
    President Vladimir Putin has told Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko that there have been some "positive" developments in ongoing negotiations with Ukrainian leaders
    But he also gave the go-ahead for volunteers from the Middle East to fight for Russia in Ukraine
    Elsewhere, the UK has sanctioned 386 members of the Russian state Duma who support Putin's invasion of Ukraine. The sanctions will ban those listed from travelling to the UK, accessing assets held in the country and doing business in its jurisdiction
    Meanwhile, the UK's veterans minister has urged ex-servicemen "not to engage" in the conflict following reports of several British military personnel travelling to Ukraine to Ukraine's forces
    And the EU has presented a plan to phase out the EU's dependence on Russian fossil fuels by 2027
https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-europe-60685883
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Ron

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Re: War in Eastern Europe, what's it good for ....
« Reply #787 on: March 11, 2022, 11:25:30 AM »
Putin being a bad guy, working to undermine US hegemony and the US engaging in terrible foreign policy, doing immoral things are not mutually exclusive.

Our government/media lying and manipulating us doesn't make Russian propaganda true.
But if we are being lied to at home and the enemy says something true, it's still true.

Sometimes the truth has great propaganda value particularly if it is framed in the worst possible light and our government is caught lying about it.

I'm looking at what is going on and I'll tell you what I see, amateur hour performance by our leadership so far, Russia taking over a country with its B team on the ground, while most of its Airforce is still on the tarmac.

Lying about being partnered with Ukraine running biological research labs was dumb. It was public knowledge and was going to get revealed sooner or later.
 
For the invisible things of him since the creation of the world are clearly seen, being perceived through the things that are made, even his everlasting power and divinity, that they may be without excuse. Because knowing God, they didn’t glorify him as God, and didn’t give thanks, but became vain in their reasoning, and their senseless heart was darkened. Professing themselves to be wise, they became fools.

AJ Dual

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Re: War in Eastern Europe, what's it good for ....
« Reply #788 on: March 11, 2022, 11:50:28 AM »
Russia taking over a country with its B team on the ground, while most of its Airforce is still on the tarmac.

I've come to the conclusion that all the "B Team" cannon fodder, "good stuff held in reserve" thinking is wrong.

They have held back on mass artillery and rocket attacks somewhat for reasons of hoping to quickly capture Ukraine intact, and international opinion, but that's not the same thing. Their performance is really that bad. So much so it has people coming up with theories about inferior troops and units being used first for various reasons. I think it's because in high-trust Western societies we just can't conceive of how much graft and ineptitude can exist. Plus people think "BIG RUSSIA" and forget that they've got a GDP smaller than California, Texas, and Italy. And they're now 30 years out from a Soviet closed command economy that could mitigate defense production somewhat (always overestimated intentionally by the West even then), and have to pay for their military equipment within something more resembling a real-world economy.

What "A Team" stuff Russia does have is limited. Pilot air time and airworthiness of even their good stuff is a fraction of Western Air Forces. Someone in the U.S. Air National Guard gets as much flight time as a front line Russian unit does. Maybe more. And what they do have of newer good stuff, they can't afford to replace it if lost in combat. Further, I suspect that some good stuff is positioned internally in Russia as a hedge against a coup or regime change.

Another example, Russian performance in Syria can be defined as "adequate" at best, and that's with hand picked equipment and men skimmed off the top of several different units and brought together in their expeditionary force.

This is what Russia has got. And calling it "B Team" is generous. They tried for a more Western style rapid strike and decapitate maneuver early on in the war, where the VDV Airborne, and Spetsnaz troops had taken the Antonov airport near Kiev, and it failed horribly. They were slaughtered by Ukrainian defenders as they retook the airfield. They're using Baofeng commercial walkie-talkies on clear analog channels for comms.

Conscripts on one year terms is further hampering them greatly. One can imagine they don't get nearly the training their Western counterparts do, and if they did, their term would be up almost as it was complete. And with the fraud, graft, and incompetence, I suspect much of that training only exists on paper, and never actually happened.

Honestly, in a way this is more dangerous, because the more third-world Russia's performance looks, the more clear it's becoming they're a borderline failed petro-state with nukes. One could hope that their nuclear forces suffer from many of the same deficiencies their conventional forces do, but if even a few hundred work, and they use them because Putin feels like he's got nothing left to lose, it'll be the worst day the World has seen since World War II, probably worse.

Lying about being partnered with Ukraine running biological research labs was dumb. It was public knowledge and was going to get revealed sooner or later.

This is definitely a WTF head-scratcher for sure. I'm trying to figure out what the impetus for this even was. Research they couldn't do in the US? Just unaccountable slush-fund money finding weird perverse uses?

I'm definitely looking at this with open eyes, and the US and Ukraine are definitely far from being pure as driven snow here. But in the sense that multiple things can be true at once, I still think this is largely naked aggression on the part of Russia, and Putin's desires to empire-build.
I promise not to duck.

Ron

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Re: War in Eastern Europe, what's it good for ....
« Reply #789 on: March 11, 2022, 12:18:42 PM »
Great analysis.

It is an assumption on my part that there is a significant A team available. If that is their best, then they are a bit of a paper tiger if not for the nukes.
For the invisible things of him since the creation of the world are clearly seen, being perceived through the things that are made, even his everlasting power and divinity, that they may be without excuse. Because knowing God, they didn’t glorify him as God, and didn’t give thanks, but became vain in their reasoning, and their senseless heart was darkened. Professing themselves to be wise, they became fools.

MillCreek

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Re: War in Eastern Europe, what's it good for ....
« Reply #790 on: March 11, 2022, 12:29:02 PM »
^^^Now I wonder about how realistic was the threat from the Warsaw Pact during the Cold War.  Tanks rushing through the Fulda Gap, etc.  I don't recall a lot of opinion back then about the Soviets being a paper tiger.
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Quote from: Angel Eyes on August 09, 2018, 01:56:15 AM
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MechAg94

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Re: War in Eastern Europe, what's it good for ....
« Reply #791 on: March 11, 2022, 12:35:28 PM »
I think you are probably right about the corruption.  That is going to undermine what they have to the point that only a percentage is combat capable and stockpiles of supplies either won't exist or won't be in good condition. 

Looking at the Dr. Malone post from Ron above, it may certainly be that there is no bio-weapons development going on in the Ukraine, but our bureaucracy's first reaction is to bury and hide the information instead of being open.  I can easily see them making it look worse than it is through fear and incompetence. 
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MechAg94

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Re: War in Eastern Europe, what's it good for ....
« Reply #792 on: March 11, 2022, 12:44:39 PM »
^^^Now I wonder about how realistic was the threat from the Warsaw Pact during the Cold War.  Tanks rushing through the Fulda Gap, etc.  I don't recall a lot of opinion back then about the Soviets being a paper tiger.
Given the tech at the time, I think it probably wasn't something to underestimate.  I figure the army and tech we developed by the 1980's could handle it, but not sure about before that.  It seems to me that Soviet tanks work as far as being an armored gun platform on tracks.  That was enough back in the 1960's.  In the 2000's, the sophistication of air attack, indirect fire, and anti-tank weapons has increased quite a bit. 
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Jim147

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Re: War in Eastern Europe, what's it good for ....
« Reply #793 on: March 11, 2022, 12:54:55 PM »
Putin is doing so good he is bringing 16,000 merc's in from the middle east.
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Ben

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Ron

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Re: War in Eastern Europe, what's it good for ....
« Reply #795 on: March 11, 2022, 01:09:22 PM »
The information warfare piece has been brutal. This is one of few places I would dare express any concerns about our policy.

They're working on getting everybody worked up into a lather and ready to go to war. It's a little disturbing to me to say the least.

For the invisible things of him since the creation of the world are clearly seen, being perceived through the things that are made, even his everlasting power and divinity, that they may be without excuse. Because knowing God, they didn’t glorify him as God, and didn’t give thanks, but became vain in their reasoning, and their senseless heart was darkened. Professing themselves to be wise, they became fools.

MillCreek

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Re: War in Eastern Europe, what's it good for ....
« Reply #796 on: March 11, 2022, 01:37:25 PM »
Given the tech at the time, I think it probably wasn't something to underestimate.  I figure the army and tech we developed by the 1980's could handle it, but not sure about before that.  It seems to me that Soviet tanks work as far as being an armored gun platform on tracks.  That was enough back in the 1960's.  In the 2000's, the sophistication of air attack, indirect fire, and anti-tank weapons has increased quite a bit.

I have a deceased friend who was a US Army armor officer in West Germany back in the late 70's. He was of the opinion that a massive Soviet attack on western Europe back then would have gone tactical nuclear in short order to stop them due to the disparity in conventional arms between the Soviets and NATO.
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Quote from: Angel Eyes on August 09, 2018, 01:56:15 AM
You are one lousy risk manager.

cordex

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Re: War in Eastern Europe, what's it good for ....
« Reply #797 on: March 11, 2022, 01:46:25 PM »
The information warfare piece has been brutal. This is one of few places I would dare express any concerns about our policy.
Very much so.

I will give Biden credit early on, though.  He called Putin out at each of his moves and from what I can see prevented Putin from giving even a thin pretext for his invasion.

WLJ

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Re: War in Eastern Europe, what's it good for ....
« Reply #798 on: March 11, 2022, 02:33:21 PM »
Bets on what happens first

A) Kyiv falls
B) Russian runs out of generals
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WLJ

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Re: War in Eastern Europe, what's it good for ....
« Reply #799 on: March 11, 2022, 02:38:29 PM »
^^^Now I wonder about how realistic was the threat from the Warsaw Pact during the Cold War.  Tanks rushing through the Fulda Gap, etc.  I don't recall a lot of opinion back then about the Soviets being a paper tiger.

Safe to say the majority of WP tanks were better maintained back then compared to 2022 Russia and there was far more of them as well.
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