Well, you can probably trust the "no invasion" thing, but only because it'll be decades before Russia can afford to do it again.
Granted, it took us a month to sweep through Iraq in our wars with them, and people considering the Russian invasion as "stalled" at only two weeks is a bit premature. OTOH, even if you take propaganda, and anecdotal twitter video of engagements for what it's worth (not much) it is still pretty safe to say it's not going well for the Russians.
Dead generals, and Baofeng walkie-talkies transmitting in clear analog channels doesn't bode well for them at all.
If Ukraine can hold on for a month more, I think the Russian advance is just going to fall apart even more than it has already. Logistically, Russia is already in deep doo-doo, and another month, they'll be combat ineffective.
There's also the issue that on the maps showing Russian captured territory, it's arguably really just thin lines of roads they've captured, with all the countryside in between going untouched. There's a lot of area in the Russian "rear" where Ukrainian forces can maneuver and put hurt on them if they can leverage home-field advantage and get there, especially with western aid and weapons.
At least that's my prediction I'm willing to put into writing.
It remains to be seen what China's relationship with Russia is going to be. China's a net importer of food and fuel, with no real ability to reverse it. And grain and oil from Russia made cheap by the devalued Ruble is what they need. OTOH, China's sitting on some really bad bubbles, real-estate which is collapsing in slow-mo due to the command economy aspects of the CCP, ghost cities, and their own monetary manipulations of the Yuan.
I think China's going to be "in check" for awhile. Their economy is so precarious, if they act out and get sanctions, anything substantial threatens to bring down their entire economy. I don't expect a move on Taiwan at all. An amphibious landing on an island with modern western weapons is apples and oranges to Ukraine.
I also suspect, that while much better than Russia, China may also have some logistical and quality problems in their military.
https://youtu.be/n96m5lB8nzA Purely anecdotal of course, but TWO separate Chinese MRE's with green rotten pork in them that put Steve in the hospital hints there may be problems with graft and "lowest bidder" suppliers in China.
And presumably the Ukraine invasion is going to screw up their grain exports as well this coming summer. Between that and Russia coming up short, and under sanctions, food prices/supply are going to be screwed in Asia and the Middle East.
