Author Topic: Post your mid-term updates  (Read 11306 times)

MillCreek

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Re: Post your mid-term updates
« Reply #225 on: November 09, 2022, 09:27:21 AM »
I will be interested to see how the stock market reacts today.
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K Frame

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Re: Post your mid-term updates
« Reply #226 on: November 09, 2022, 09:32:06 AM »
I think those douchebags at Huffington Post said it best...

"The Red Whimper."
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Ben

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Re: Post your mid-term updates
« Reply #227 on: November 09, 2022, 09:35:59 AM »
I will be interested to see how the stock market reacts today.

Heading down as we speak.
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WLJ

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Re: Post your mid-term updates
« Reply #228 on: November 09, 2022, 09:37:13 AM »
They literally have that right now.

Not really, what we have now is more of a staring contest between idiots. They're been blocked in the senate the past couple of years.  HR1808 is currently stalled by the thinnest of margins in the senate and they knew any RvW type bill would likely suffer the same fate. That block may have just been washed away. They're also going to have a largely free hand in confirming nominations.
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RocketMan

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Re: Post your mid-term updates
« Reply #229 on: November 09, 2022, 09:37:56 AM »
Heading down as we speak.

I think some of the recent gains were in expectation of a red wave.
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RocketMan

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Re: Post your mid-term updates
« Reply #230 on: November 09, 2022, 09:39:58 AM »
It seems that the historic shift of minorities to the Republican side also failed to materialize, just as it failed in 2020.
If there really was intelligent life on other planets, we'd be sending them foreign aid.

Conservatives see George Orwell's "1984" as a cautionary tale.  Progressives view it as a "how to" manual.

My wife often says to me, "You are evil and must be destroyed." She may be right.

Liberals believe one should never let reason, logic and facts get in the way of a good emotional argument.

RocketMan

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Re: Post your mid-term updates
« Reply #231 on: November 09, 2022, 09:42:40 AM »
After this debacle, maybe the Republicans should change the name of their party to the "Wishful Thinking" party.  Two major elections in row where they were predicting glorious victories that failed to materialize.
If there really was intelligent life on other planets, we'd be sending them foreign aid.

Conservatives see George Orwell's "1984" as a cautionary tale.  Progressives view it as a "how to" manual.

My wife often says to me, "You are evil and must be destroyed." She may be right.

Liberals believe one should never let reason, logic and facts get in the way of a good emotional argument.

dogmush

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Re: Post your mid-term updates
« Reply #232 on: November 09, 2022, 09:43:21 AM »
Not really, what we have now is more of a staring contest between idiots. They're been blocked in the senate the past couple of years.  HR1808 is currently stalled by the thinnest of margins in the senate and they knew any RvW type bill would likely suffer the same fate. That block may have just been washed away. They're also going to have a largely free hand in confirming nominations.

Why do you say that?  I'm genuinely curious.  The NYT and most of the pro Dem places are predicting a 50-50 Senate.  That's what we have now. Even if the D's pick up all 5 of the currently undecided Senate seats they'll only get a 51-49 majority.  Other than not needing Kamala to come in and vote, how is that functionally any different from the current 50-50? 

Am I missing some esoteric Senate rule?

WLJ

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Re: Post your mid-term updates
« Reply #233 on: November 09, 2022, 09:54:25 AM »
Why do you say that?  I'm genuinely curious.  The NYT and most of the pro Dem places are predicting a 50-50 Senate.  That's what we have now. Even if the D's pick up all 5 of the currently undecided Senate seats they'll only get a 51-49 majority.  Other than not needing Kamala to come in and vote, how is that functionally any different from the current 50-50? 

Am I missing some esoteric Senate rule?

My statements are based on IF they get control of both the Senate and the House. Sorry if that wasn't clear.

To the second part, the filibuster, I don't expect that to hold forever, and they need enough votes to overcome any dems who get cold feet.
HR1808 has been sitting in the senate for some time now and there has been RvW bill sitting and waiting for the right momment in the House.

Edit: I did say IF
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K Frame

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Re: Post your mid-term updates
« Reply #234 on: November 09, 2022, 09:57:26 AM »
After this debacle, maybe the Republicans should change the name of their party to the "Wishful Thinking" party.  Two major elections in row where they were predicting glorious victories that failed to materialize.

Not to mention their complete and total failure on all of their loud speak about Obamacare.

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dogmush

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Re: Post your mid-term updates
« Reply #235 on: November 09, 2022, 09:59:16 AM »
My statements are based on IF they get control of both the Senate and the House. Sorry if that wasn't clear.

To the second part, the filibuster, I don't expect that to hold forever, and they need enough votes to overcome any dems who get cold feet.
HR1808 has been sitting in the senate for some time now and there has been RvW bill sitting and waiting for the right momment in the House.

Edit: I did say IF

Right, but they mathematically can't get functionally more in either chamber than they already had.  There is nothing that can happen to give them the 60 to overcome the filibuster.

So in what way would Dems controlling the house and senate after this midterm be in any way different than what we had the last two years?

If they didn't do all the things you posted this summer, what makes you think they would do it after Jan?

WLJ

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Re: Post your mid-term updates
« Reply #236 on: November 09, 2022, 10:08:20 AM »
Again I hope, but don't expect the fillbuster to last forever, something is bound to change sooner or later. Do you trust Mitch that much? I don't and he's one of my state's senators along with Paul.

Again I said IF and who knows maybe enough dems get cold feet as well.
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Perd Hapley

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Re: Post your mid-term updates
« Reply #237 on: November 09, 2022, 10:26:12 AM »
Right, but they mathematically can't get functionally more in either chamber than they already had.  There is nothing that can happen to give them the 60 to overcome the filibuster.

So in what way would Dems controlling the house and senate after this midterm be in any way different than what we had the last two years?

If they didn't do all the things you posted this summer, what makes you think they would do it after Jan?

Biden will likely not run again, so he can do anything he wants. And Congressional Dems obviously won't be held accountable by the voters, judging by what happened yesterday. Why shouldn't the Left push as hard as they can?
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Ben

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Re: Post your mid-term updates
« Reply #238 on: November 09, 2022, 10:39:08 AM »
Biden will likely not run again, so he can do anything he wants. And Congressional Dems obviously won't be held accountable by the voters, judging by what happened yesterday. Why shouldn't the Left push as hard as they can?

This is actually food for thought. Most of the time that either side holds back on "big" issues like abortion or guns is because they're afraid they may go a step too far and alienate enough voters to hurt their party. After 2020 and yesterday, it appears that dems can do whatever they want with no consequences, so I could easily see the squad type Ds (the squad won by landslides again) spinning the establishment Ds up to just go for it on all kinds of stuff.
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Ben

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Re: Post your mid-term updates
« Reply #239 on: November 09, 2022, 11:06:04 AM »
Well, at least one thing put a smile on my face:

https://twitchy.com/sarahd-313035/2022/11/09/christina-pushaw-puts-ron-desantis-runaway-victory-into-dazzling-perspective/

Excellent jab, considering Newsom's attacks on DeSantis and Newsom's whole "Florida campaign".
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dogmush

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Re: Post your mid-term updates
« Reply #240 on: November 09, 2022, 11:10:39 AM »
Biden will likely not run again, so he can do anything he wants. And Congressional Dems obviously won't be held accountable by the voters, judging by what happened yesterday. Why shouldn't the Left push as hard as they can?

Maybe, that is food for a bit of thought, but the Dems don't, historically, hold back swinging for the fences for fear of elections.

Part of what made me question WLJ's assertion is that he said a RvW bill would be passed within days if they had both houses.  They have both houses, and clearly think Abortion is a big deal to their voters, so why didn't they pass that bill this summer, if they were going to/could?  I guess maybe they decided to hold off so it could be an election issue, but more likely they knew it wouldn't get through a filibuster, so why waste time.  That hasn't changed, so why would they pass it now, much less within days?  (The cynic in me says the politicians are better off leaving that issue on the states so they can perennially use the threat of the "other party from  State [ x ] will kill babies/legislate your womb" to scare up votes)  Same with guns.

1A may be more of an issue, but that's coming up because Twitter left the plantation, not because of these elections.  I could see the pols being "bipartisan" on making sure DHS can still censor the internet.

This midterm was a status quo.  R's didn't win enough* to do anything but keep blocking the worst of it, and Dem's didn't win enough to do more than keep incrementing the world's economy into the crapper.  What we had last winter, is what we will have this winter.  Except Season 2 of the Jan 6 hearings may be canceled.

*The one other caveat is that IF the R's get the Senate, and IF Rand Paul can actually get the docs he wants from the NIH regarding COVID, and IF those docs are allowed to be made public, we might see some real rending of garments.
« Last Edit: November 09, 2022, 12:27:46 PM by dogmush »

Ben

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Re: Post your mid-term updates
« Reply #241 on: November 09, 2022, 11:22:41 AM »
*The one other caveat is that IF the R's get the Senate, and IF Rand Paul can actually get the docs he wants from the NIH regarding COVID, and IF those docs are allowed to be made public, we might see some real rending of garments.

I would look forward to that, except that as in the past, the big truth bombs will be dropped well after the fact, and people will take the Hillary Clinton road of, "What difference, at this point...".
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WLJ

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Re: Post your mid-term updates
« Reply #242 on: November 09, 2022, 11:24:10 AM »
Maybe, that is food for a bit of thought, but the Dems don't, historically, hold back swinging for the fences for fear of elections.

Part of what made me question WLJ's assertion is that he said a RvW bill would be passed within days if they had both houses.  They have both houses, and clearly think Abortion is a big deal to their voters, so why didn't they pass that bill this summer, if they were going to/could? 

Filibuster and baring that they needed enough of a margin in case a dem or two got cold feet is why they didn't go for it during the summer. Mitch probably would have stood his ground, yeah I know, and they need to neutralize him to some extent.

Also consider this, if they had gone for it and got it passed during the summer that would have mostly, not completely mind you, removed their one and only election ace in the hole to get the left masses out and vote. They're masters at the political long game while the R can't see pass next week.
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HankB

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Re: Post your mid-term updates
« Reply #243 on: November 09, 2022, 12:07:57 PM »
A little bit of local good news - there were three school bond issues up for a vote in my area. Two of them passed ( :'(  ) but the third one - $93,000,000 for a high school football stadium - was voted down by a heretical electorate.   =D  (I say that because HS football is a religion with some Texans.)
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WLJ

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Re: Post your mid-term updates
« Reply #244 on: November 09, 2022, 12:48:19 PM »
Okay, numbers from CNN

NV Blue 49.9 vs 47.2% with 77% in. Still a toss up though.
GA Blue 49.2 vs 48.7% with 96% in. Still could go either way.
AZ Blue 51.4 vs 46.4% 69% in Still a toss up.

Rs currently have 49 seats vs D's 48
So, if any 1 of the above go red we'll have a tie, again, in the Senate. but if they stay blue it'll be 51-49.

House is a mess currently at 187 D vs 203 R with by a rough count ~10-11 districts tending red. 
House tie point is 218
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WLJ

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Re: Post your mid-term updates
« Reply #245 on: November 09, 2022, 01:06:09 PM »
CNN saying GA race headed to a Dec 6 run off

Looks like I picked the wrong week month to quit sniffing glue
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HeroHog

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Re: Post your mid-term updates
« Reply #246 on: November 09, 2022, 01:15:41 PM »
Not a peep about voting issues I have seen. Did we really blow it this bad?
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dogmush

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Re: Post your mid-term updates
« Reply #247 on: November 09, 2022, 01:31:51 PM »
The GA runoff won't include the Libertarian who pulled in 2%.  We'll see how those folks break.

I also have to imagine turnout for a runoff is both lower, and more likely to be the party faithful.  I have no idea how that will end up breaking down, other than guessing the folks that only sorta cared for the midterm won't bother for a runoff.

How much out of state political money do you think GA will see in the next month?

WLJ

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Re: Post your mid-term updates
« Reply #248 on: November 09, 2022, 02:40:20 PM »
NV went red with 80% in
49.9 vs 47.2

Getting conflicting reports on just how red or blue the areas left are.
« Last Edit: November 09, 2022, 03:06:04 PM by WLJ »
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WLJ

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Re: Post your mid-term updates
« Reply #249 on: November 09, 2022, 02:50:31 PM »
The GA runoff won't include the Libertarian who pulled in 2%.  We'll see how those folks break.

Yeah, whole time I was watching that race I was wondering how much he was pulling from either Walker or Warnock.
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