Author Topic: Ethanol & The Law of Unintended Consequences  (Read 24639 times)

Gewehr98

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Re: Ethanol & The Law of Unintended Consequences
« Reply #75 on: July 19, 2007, 11:27:04 AM »
Oh, I'm not too worried about it.  I've got way more than 11 acres planted in field corn, and I'll exercise my Gawd-given right to drive hither and yon using what grew there, and sell the extra to whom I choose, be it the ethanol distillery in Friesland or the local co-op.  No different than somebody exercising their Gawd-given right to haul their little crotchfruits hither and yon in a big-assed Excursion while screaming about the high cost of (taxed) gasoline.  C'est la vie.  grin
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roo_ster

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Re: Ethanol & The Law of Unintended Consequences
« Reply #76 on: July 19, 2007, 11:44:17 AM »
Now, how's about y'all stop telling us how evil we are with the ethanol start-up bit and offer a better, non-subsidized energy alternative, since last I heard the Mr. Fusion unit for my truck is currently on back-order from the manufacturer?

You know, the old, "If you're not part of the solution, you're part of the problem" thing. 
I do believe the obligation to prove a subsidy's and a mandate's worth is on those who wish to impose it.  As such things are anathema to freedom and a free market, there had best be a net benefit in the cost/benefit analysis.

Also, a viable solution to a bad idea is to stop implementing it, much as a viable solution to head trauma is to stop banging your head on the wall.

The market did not need subsidies to end our dependence on whale oil.  It became more expensive relative to other alternatives.  I think that solution, the market, will best solve our fuel problems.  Tear out mandates, subsidies, CAFE, EPA cocktail blends, etc. and let the market do its work. 

I'm also trying to remember exactly how many trees my family and friends in Sauk County have cut down to plant ethanol corn in their fields.  Off the top of my head, I remember the number being 0, give or take 0. Maybe that's because the fields were already growing the same field corn to sell at government-subsidized prices before the most recent ethanol boom?  I dunno, you tell me.
You & your family's cutting of trees is not the issue.  Your farmland sounds like it is some of the better and (more importantly) currently in cultivation.  The lands at issue are the marginal plots that have fallen to disuse since Midwest agriculture came online in the late 1800's.  Ethanol subsidies and mandates make it profitable to put that land to the plow again.  Toss in land that is already in use growing crops suitable to the local climate that is now being planted in corn.  All such lands generally require greater inputs (fertilizer, water, etc.) than prime land in the farm belt.

Now, do you suppose that the 4.3 billion gallons of ethanol fuel in that particular study you so nicely bold-faced (paid for by whom, I'm curious) just might have replaced 4.3 billion gallons of gasoline that came from Jihadistan?
Not by a long shot.  Do.  The.  Math. 

Assume that it takes zero energy inputs to make that 4.3 billion gallons of ethanol.  Since Eth has 55% the energy content of oil, you would replace 2.37B gal of oil with the 4.3B gal of Eth.

But, assuming zero energy inputs for corn-derived Eth is not even close.  The Cornell study a net loss of 54000 BTU per gallon of Eth produced, or:
Net BTU Loss per Gal Eth   5.40E+04
Net BTU Loss for 4.3B Gal Eth   2.32E+14
Equivalent Gal Oil Loss to Pro 4.3B Gal Eth   1.68E+09
So, to produce that 4.3B gal of Eth, we not only have to import the original 4.3B gal of jihadi oil, we need to import another 1.68B gal of jihadi oil.  Yep, that is quite the "alternative."

Cost the consumer more, import more jihadi oil, and spend more tax dollars to do it.  Great idea.

I've got way more than 11 acres planted in field corn, and I'll exercise my Gawd-given right to drive hither and yon using what grew there, and sell the extra to whom I choose, be it the ethanol distillery in Friesland or the local co-op.
It is less a God-given right, more a Congress-given windfall. 

Or would you rather we do nothing?  Your beloved Euro-weenies...
So, you taking public transportation out to your acres of subsidized corn?  How 'bout when you're on patrol?   Advocates for public transport really ought to set the example.

Doing nothing is certainly preferable to Eth subsidy and mandates.  At least doing nothing doesn't cost us more.


Ethanol is, at its heart, just another example of concentrated benefits and dispersed costs similar to the illegal alien issue.  We don't need another one of those sorts of programs, thank you very much.
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roo_ster

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El Tejon

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Re: Ethanol & The Law of Unintended Consequences
« Reply #77 on: July 19, 2007, 11:45:09 AM »
Until the Feds saith, "All your corn belong to us." grin

Corn Police=> police
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charby

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Re: Ethanol & The Law of Unintended Consequences
« Reply #78 on: July 19, 2007, 12:07:03 PM »
Okay

I just re read the whole topic

My prediction for 2020...

There are going to be a whole lot more people out there who are not going to be able to have cars, not because they can't afford the vehicle, just that they can't afford the fuel to put in it.

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roo_ster

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Re: Ethanol & The Law of Unintended Consequences
« Reply #79 on: July 19, 2007, 12:24:08 PM »
EL Tejon:

I bet you are a Kernel in the Corn Police Corps.
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roo_ster

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Manedwolf

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Re: Ethanol & The Law of Unintended Consequences
« Reply #80 on: July 19, 2007, 12:43:44 PM »
Don't talk badly about the Corn Police.

They have ears everywhere.  grin

Sergeant Bob

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Re: Ethanol & The Law of Unintended Consequences
« Reply #81 on: July 19, 2007, 01:33:53 PM »
Don't talk badly about the Corn Police.

They have ears everywhere.  grin

They are probably stalking him right now. police
Personally, I do not understand how a bunch of people demanding a bigger govt can call themselves anarchist.
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MillCreek

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Re: Ethanol & The Law of Unintended Consequences
« Reply #82 on: July 19, 2007, 02:19:11 PM »
Don't talk badly about the Corn Police.

They have ears everywhere.  grin

They are probably stalking him right now. police

And will heat him until he pops.
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Sergeant Bob

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Re: Ethanol & The Law of Unintended Consequences
« Reply #83 on: July 19, 2007, 03:37:01 PM »
Don't talk badly about the Corn Police.

They have ears everywhere.  grin

They are probably stalking him right now. police

And will heat him until he pops.

After they take him downtown to that maize that is the city jail if he gives them too much of a tassel.
Personally, I do not understand how a bunch of people demanding a bigger govt can call themselves anarchist.
I meet lots of folks like this, claim to be anarchist but really they're just liberals with pierced genitals. - gunsmith

I already have canned butter, buying more. Canned blueberries, some pancake making dry goods and the end of the world is gonna be delicious.  -French G

Nitrogen

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Re: Ethanol & The Law of Unintended Consequences
« Reply #84 on: July 19, 2007, 11:20:58 PM »
Quote from: Gewehr98
Sources, please.

Someone asked for a source on my earlier post on the fact that ethanol is more expensive per joule than gasoline.  It's math I did myself.

A gallon of gas contains about 131 megajoules of energy.
A gallon of Ethanol has about 80 megajoules.
(you can look that up anywhere)

Going by prices I can get each for in Dallas, TX:
2.75/gal for gasoline
2.45/gal for E85.

SO:
2.75 for 131 megajoules is about .02099 cents per megajoule
47.64 Megajoules per dollar of gas.
2.45 for 80 megajoules is about .03062 cents per megajoule.
32.65 Megajoules per dollar of ethanol

This is also assuming that you usefully use each megajoule.  Ethanol has a SLIGHT edge on gasoline in this department, assuming your engine is designed for it.  To get that edge, you have to run your engine at a higher compression ratio, like 16:1.  I doubt most ethanol cars are designed for this, being flex fuel cars to run on gasoline, so they are actually using ethanol LESS efficiently as they can, so it's wasting MORE of that stored energy.

Also realise E85 is taxed less and subsidized more, so the truth is even worse.

NOW
Ethanol has a higher octane rating than gasoline, so you can run it at a higher compression ratio, but I don't believe flexfuel cars these days are designed to take advantage of that.

Also running at a higher compression ration can increase greenhouse gases, so isn't a good idea.

E85=BAD.
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Art Eatman

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Re: Ethanol & The Law of Unintended Consequences
« Reply #85 on: July 20, 2007, 05:59:04 AM »
G98, I don't know anybody (among knowledgeable people, anyway) who think ethanol is THE answer.  I certainly don't, and I certainly never wrote anything here where I intended to imply that.  I'm griping about the unintended consequences of what's now being done.

I do think that too much importance is being attached to the whole corn deal to the detriment of those who don't profit from corn itself.  And I don't like the present subsidy system.  Further, the import duties on ethanol from Brazil--which uses far less land and water per gallon of output, limits the availability here.  And is also a form of subsidy to this present system of production.

I'm objecting to the harm that's being done by the way ethanol's "bubble" is being touted as a Good Thing.

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charby

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Re: Ethanol & The Law of Unintended Consequences
« Reply #86 on: July 20, 2007, 07:17:19 AM »
http://www.scaruffi.com/politics/oil.html

check that link out....

I'm suprised how much oil we consume compared to the other 1st world nations.

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Thor

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Re: Ethanol & The Law of Unintended Consequences
« Reply #87 on: July 20, 2007, 07:57:24 AM »
Well, not only do we use that oil for transportation and energy, but we also use it for plastics. Take a look around you and see just how much plastic is in your environment. There's also other things we use that oil for, like weed killers and other such things.
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charby

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Re: Ethanol & The Law of Unintended Consequences
« Reply #88 on: July 20, 2007, 08:00:34 AM »
Well, not only do we use that oil for transportation and energy, but we also use it for plastics. Take a look around you and see just how much plastic is in your environment. There's also other things we use that oil for, like weed killers and other such things.

I know
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Firethorn

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Re: Ethanol & The Law of Unintended Consequences
« Reply #89 on: July 20, 2007, 09:48:01 AM »
Someone asked for a source on my earlier post on the fact that ethanol is more expensive per joule than gasoline.  It's math I did myself.

I'll agree with your math, more or less.

1 US Gal gasoline: 125k BTU
1 US Gal ethanol: 84.6k

Difference: Ethanl has 68% of the energy of gasoline.

If Gasoline is $3/gallon, Ethanol(E100) would have to be $2.04/gallon to make sense.

This discounts some possibilities that can optimize the burning of ethanol more than gasoline, like the aforementioned increase in compression ratios.  I've heard that some people only loose 10% of their milage when using E85, so E85 at $2.73 would make sense for them.  Some research turned up variable compression ratio engines.  So you can make up most of the loss via additional optimization and fancy electronics.

Personally, I think that corn based ethanol is a bandage at the most, cellulistic ethanol has much more promise.

roo_ster

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Re: Ethanol & The Law of Unintended Consequences
« Reply #90 on: July 20, 2007, 09:58:40 AM »
G98, I don't know anybody (among knowledgeable people, anyway) who think ethanol is THE answer.  I certainly don't, and I certainly never wrote anything here where I intended to imply that.  I'm griping about the unintended consequences of what's now being done.

I do think that too much importance is being attached to the whole corn deal to the detriment of those who don't profit from corn itself.  And I don't like the present subsidy system.  Further, the import duties on ethanol from Brazil--which uses far less land and water per gallon of output, limits the availability here.  And is also a form of subsidy to this present system of production.

I'm objecting to the harm that's being done by the way ethanol's "bubble" is being touted as a Good Thing.

Art

What Art said.

The thread's title is "Ethanol & The Law of Unintended Consequences," for a reason.
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Gewehr98

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Re: Ethanol & The Law of Unintended Consequences
« Reply #91 on: July 20, 2007, 10:27:54 AM »
It's alright.

I was done with the thread once I got the "set the example by running it in your squad car" thing.

Like that's really up to me.

Moot point, anyway. 

I tendered my resignation to the Dane County Sheriff's Department this morning.  Lots of hidden expectations, lots of animosity from folks calling me a "piggy" (including my own stepsons), and I don't want to deal with another 20 years of bureaucracy and bad laws. My last hamburger highway, with the remains of "excellent drivers" rinsed off the asphalt, was the highlight.

I'm taking an offer elsewhere, a Management McJob that pays nearly the same.   

Y'all talk amongst yourselves, ok?
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Sindawe

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Re: Ethanol & The Law of Unintended Consequences
« Reply #92 on: July 20, 2007, 12:58:33 PM »
Quote
I'm taking an offer elsewhere, a Management McJob that pays nearly the same. 

Wow, from "piggy" to "Pointy Haired Boss".   grin

Quote
Personally, I think that corn based ethanol is a bandage at the most, cellulistic ethanol has much more promise.

Concur.  I think that ANY ethanol as a liquid fuel that is burned in an engine is just a transition step.
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K Frame

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Re: Ethanol & The Law of Unintended Consequences
« Reply #93 on: July 20, 2007, 01:12:42 PM »
"excellent drivers" rinsed off the asphalt"

I'll bet it was someone who thought he was a good enough driver that he could stay left all the time...

You know, in reading through all of these messages, I'm struck and how many people still seem to believe that corn is it; that all other forms of alternate fuel technologies have come to a screeching halt, that no more research will ever be conducted, and that the purpose is to move wholesale, 100% away from oil to ethanol made from ONLY corn -- no other product will ever be used for ethanol production.

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Thor

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Re: Ethanol & The Law of Unintended Consequences
« Reply #94 on: July 20, 2007, 03:09:06 PM »
Like I said much earlier in this thread, it's a canard. It's all "feel good" politics that will cost the US Consumer greatly. Watch and see.
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Bogie

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Re: Ethanol & The Law of Unintended Consequences
« Reply #95 on: July 20, 2007, 07:53:09 PM »
Campers, at LEAST the numbnuts bureaucrats are considering something other than "fossil fuels" or a high-tech freakacontraption like a "fuel cell."
 
You gotta give 'em some credit for at least trying...
 
Now if we can get clean nukes online, that'll be another good thing - I wonder how Gore's camp deals with that concept?
 
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Firethorn

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Re: Ethanol & The Law of Unintended Consequences
« Reply #96 on: July 22, 2007, 07:50:38 AM »
Now if we can get clean nukes online, that'll be another good thing - I wonder how Gore's camp deals with that concept?

Not even with a ten foot pole.

Sindawe - cellulostic ethanol can be made with pretty much any plant matter-including leaves, grass, and wood.  Per pound of plant matter, you get more than 16 times the alcohol from the cellulostic method, and it requires less energy input to boot.

Though personally I think that biodiesel has a much better process - extracting oil from crops is a well known science, we already have plants more or less optimized for it.  The resulting product requires less processing and has more energy, and is run in a more efficient engine.

Of course, you can use the remaining parts of the plant over in the ethanol facility, and the remains from there as fertilizer.  We have a more or less full circle here...

Sergeant Bob

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Re: Ethanol & The Law of Unintended Consequences
« Reply #97 on: July 22, 2007, 12:12:24 PM »
Campers, at LEAST the numbnuts bureaucrats are considering something other than "fossil fuels" or a high-tech freakacontraption like a "fuel cell."
 
You gotta give 'em some credit for at least trying...
 

No, I give them credit only for lining someone's pockets with our money. It's a loser and they are still throwing more and more money at it. Corn ethanol is not going to replace fossil fuels, so why not invest in something that could at least, possibly put a dent in our dependence?

The government isn't going to do anything to takes the profits out of oil if they can help it.
Personally, I do not understand how a bunch of people demanding a bigger govt can call themselves anarchist.
I meet lots of folks like this, claim to be anarchist but really they're just liberals with pierced genitals. - gunsmith

I already have canned butter, buying more. Canned blueberries, some pancake making dry goods and the end of the world is gonna be delicious.  -French G

Art Eatman

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Re: Ethanol & The Law of Unintended Consequences
« Reply #98 on: July 23, 2007, 02:33:29 AM »
Seems to me that the talking ought to start with "Hey, liquid transportation fuel is what we need the most."  Electric power is no problem, technologically.

THEN look at the options:  Tar sands, shale oil, liquified coal, bio-diesel, ethanol.  Then, look at the total costs of each type, and each variant on types. 

Tar sands and oil shale are found in areas of little available water, but require large amounts in processing.  And, the energy requirements for processing are large.  The energy returned for energy inputs is rather low.

By variant, I mean ethanol from corn, from cane, or other plant material.  By total costs, I mean environmental as well as energy inputs to raise and harvest as well as process.

Separately, about bio-diesel:  What's its storage life?  I've heard that it's rather short-term.  I know I can use petroleum diesel that's been in an above-ground tank beyond two Terlingua summers, as fuel for my backhoe.
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charby

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Re: Ethanol & The Law of Unintended Consequences
« Reply #99 on: July 23, 2007, 05:30:57 AM »
I drove by the ethanol plant yesterday in Nevada, IA, they are paying a spot price of $2.98 a bushell for corn. Before all the ethanol bruhaha corn usually sold for around $1.75-$2.00 a bushell.

Maybe the prices are coming down on corn, but I did see futures trading at $3.43 for March 08 corn.

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